Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise

Program Chair: Sheldon D. Drobot , Harris

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Saturday, 5 January 2019

7:30 AM-8:00 PM: Saturday, 5 January 2019


Registration for Short Courses and Student Conference
Location: North Lower Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Sunday, 6 January 2019

7:00 AM-8:30 PM: Sunday, 6 January 2019


Registration (Sunday)
Location: North Lower Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

8:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 6 January 2019


Meet President Roger M. Wakimoto and Presidential Forum Speakers
Location: North Ballroom Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:00 AM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 6 January 2019


Guest Welcome Desk
Location: North 100 Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

12:00 PM-3:45 PM: Sunday, 6 January 2019


Speaker Ready Room (Sunday)
Location: North 121A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Sunday, 6 January 2019


Plenary Session
Presidential Forum: Building Resilience to Extreme Political Weather: Advice for Unpredictable Times
Location: North Ballroom 120CD (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Presidential Forum and Annual Meeting Welcome; the Seventh Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 16th Conference on Space Weather; the 17th History Symposium; the 20th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 22nd Atmospheric Science Librarians International Conference; the 24th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Symposium on Education; the 35th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 23rd Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 17th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 10th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Ninth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Seventh Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the Fifth Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Phased Array Radar Symposium; the Special Symposium on Meteorological Observations and Instrumentation; the Ninth Conference on the Meteorological Application of Lightning Data; the Ninth Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the 10th Conference on Environment and Health; the 18th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 19th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Hydrology; the Richard Anthes Symposium; the Special Symposium on Mesoscale Meteorological Extremes: Understanding, Prediction, and Projection; the Second Conference on Earth Observing SmallSats; the Seventh AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Ninth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 11th Symposium on Aerosol–Cloud–Climate Interactions; the 14th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 21st Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Fourth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; and the Events )
Moderator: Michael Henry, American Institute of Physics
Presider: Roger Wakimoto, Univ. of California, Los Angeles
Speakers: Dan Kahan, American Institute of Physics; David Goldston, MIT
4:00 PM
Presidential Forum: Building Resilience to Extreme Political Weather: Advice for Unpredictable Times

5:00 PM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 6 January 2019


Plenary Session
Annual Meeting Welcome
Location: North Ballroom 120CD (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Presidential Forum and Annual Meeting Welcome; the Fourth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the Ninth Conference on the Meteorological Application of Lightning Data; the 16th Conference on Space Weather; the 17th History Symposium; the 20th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 22nd Atmospheric Science Librarians International Conference; the 24th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Symposium on Education; the Ninth Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the 21st Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 14th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 11th Symposium on Aerosol–Cloud–Climate Interactions; the Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the Ninth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Seventh AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Second Conference on Earth Observing SmallSats; the Special Symposium on Mesoscale Meteorological Extremes: Understanding, Prediction, and Projection; and the Events )
Moderator: Roger Wakimoto, Univ. of California, Los Angeles

6:30 PM-7:30 PM: Sunday, 6 January 2019


Welcome Reception Honoring Newly Elected Fellows and Featured Award Winners
Location: North Ballroom (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

8:00 PM-10:00 PM: Sunday, 6 January 2019


CoRioLis Reception
Location: Sheraton Hotel

8:30 PM-10:00 PM: Sunday, 6 January 2019


Colour of Weather Networking Reception
Location: Sheraton Hotel

9:00 PM-11:00 PM: Sunday, 6 January 2019


Early Career Professional Reception
Location: Encanto B (Sheraton Hotel )

Monday, 7 January 2019

7:30 AM-6:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


AMS Information Desk (Monday)
Location: North 100 Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Quiet Room (Monday)
Location: West 206 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Registration (Monday)
Location: North Lower Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Speaker Ready Room (Monday)
Location: North 121A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

8:00 AM-9:00 AM: Monday, 7 January 2019


Guest Welcome Desk
Location: Meeting room foyers (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 7 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 1
Economic Engines: Economic Value of Earth Observation Powered by Economists and Earth Scientists—Your Data Are Worth More Than You May Ever Realize
Location: North 222AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise
Chair: Michael Fox, Raytheon
8:30 AM
1.1
Economic Forcing of Convective Precipitation
Atanacio Luna, Pluvinergy, Las Vegas, NV
8:45 AM
1.2
9:15 AM
1.4
Assessing the Consequence of Enterprise Risk upon the NOAA Services for Risk Management
Matthew L. Austin, NOAA/NESDIS/OPPA/Technology, Planning and Integration for Observations, Silver Spring, MD; and D. Helms

9:30 AM
1.6
Just Add Weather: Effective Use of Weather Intelligence in a Business Context
David Gold, IBM, Houston, TX; and S. Wysmuller, R. D'Arienzo, and C. Reese
9:45 AM
Bethany Mabee
Recording files available
Joint Panel Discussion 1
Emerging Needs, Opportunities, and Careers in Climate Information Services: Key Sector Perspectives
Location: North 221C (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; and the 28th Symposium on Education )
Moderator: Marjorie McGuirk, CASE Consultants International
Panelists: Rolf Olsen, American Society of Civil Engineers; Ladd Keith, American Planning Association; Mohammed Mahmoud, Water Utility Climate Alliance; Alberto Troccoli, World Energy and Meteorology Council; Michelle McClure, Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Olsen, Keith, Mahmoud, Troccoli, McClure
Marjorie McGuirk, CASE Consultants International, Asheville, NC
Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 1
Mind the Gap: Preparing Students for Careers in the Private Sector
Location: North 229AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 28th Symposium on Education; the Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; and the 10th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy )
Cochairs: Andrea L. Lang, University at Albany, SUNY; Lawrence Gloeckler III, Riskpulse
Panelists: Joshua Darr, JLT Re; Robert W. Carver, Loon, LLC; Heidi Centola, Board of Enterprise Economic Development; Paul J. Roebber, Univ. of Wisconsin; Amanda Adams, NSF; Jason C. Furtado, Univ. of Oklahoma
Darr, Carver, Centola, Roebber, Adams, Furtado
Andrea L. Lang, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY
Recording files available
2
The Other Uncertainty: Social, Political, and Cultural Forms of Uncertainty in Weather Contexts. Part I
Location: North 226AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 14th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; and the Seventh Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation )
Moderator: Heather Lazrus, NCAR
Panelists: Joe Trainor, University of Delaware; Robyn Wilson, The Ohio State University/Associate Professor of Risk Analysis and Decision Science; Melissa Bica, University of Colorado Boulder; Scott Knowles, Drexel University
8:30 AM
Introductory Remarks

9:45 AM
Panel Discussion

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 7 January 2019


Guest Coffee (Monday)
Location: Camelback A (Sheraton Hotel )

9:00 AM-7:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


Poster Hall (Monday)
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 7 January 2019


AM Coffee Break (Monday)
Location: Meeting room foyers (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:00 AM-6:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


Member Services Desk (Monday)
Location: North Lower Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


Joint Panel Discussion 2
Emerging Needs, Opportunities, and Careers in Climate Information Services: Multidisciplinary and Transdisciplinary Programs—National and International Scale
Location: North 221C (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; and the 28th Symposium on Education )
Moderator: James Buizer, The Univ. of Arizona
Panelists: Lisa Goddard, IRI, The Earth Institute, Columbia Univ.; John Furlow, IRI, The Earth Institute, Columbia Univ.; Claudia Nierenberg, NOAA; David S. Green, NASA Headquarters; Peter Schultz, ICF; Naohisa Koide, The World Bank
Goddard, Furlow, Nierenberg, Tsirkunov, Green, Schultz
James Buizer, The Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ

Recording files available
3
The Other Uncertainty: Social, Political, and Cultural Forms of Uncertainty in Weather Contexts. Part II
Location: North 226AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 14th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; and the Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise )
Moderator: Jennifer Henderson, CIRES
Panelists: Susan Joslyn, University of Washington; Robert Soden, University of Colorado Boulder; Tamara Marcus, NCAR; Keri Lubell, CDC; Jenniffer M. Santos-Hernandez, University of Puerto Rico
10:30 AM
Introductory Remarks

11:00 AM
Panel Discussion

Recording files available
Joint Panel Discussion 6
Engaging Public Works in Weather Communications and Response
Location: North 222AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; and the Seventh Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation )
Chair: Tanja E. Fransen, NOAA/NWS
Moderators: Doug Hilderbrand, NOAA/NWS; Tanja E. Fransen, NOAA/NWS
Panelists: David Fabiano, APWA; Giao Pham, APWA; Pete Weaver, APWA; Tom Bedard, Accuweather; Loni Eazell, Los Angeles County County Public Works; Mark Jackson, NOAA/NWS
10:30 AM
Fabiano, Pham, Weaver, Bedard, Eazell, Jackson
Tanja E. Fransen, NOAA/NWS, Glasgow, MT
10:30 AM
Real-Time Data Sharing -- Dave Jones

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


Lunch Break (Monday)

12:45 PM-1:05 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


Daily Weather Briefings (Monday)
Location: North 132ABC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


How to Become a Better Presenter
Location: North 231C (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

2:00 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 2
The Fourth National Climate Assessment Vol. II: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States
Location: North 226C (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 14th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 10th Conference on Environment and Health; the 24th Conference on Applied Climatology; and the Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise )
Chair: John Balbus, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences
2:15 PM
TJ2.2
The Fourth National Climate Assessment: Updating the Science of Climate Change
Donald J. Wuebbles, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, IL
2:30 PM
TJ2.3
Reducing Risks of Economic Impacts Throughout Multiple U.S. Sectors and Regions: National Climate Assessment Vol II
Brenda Ekwurzel, Union of Concerned Scientists, Washington, D.C.; and J. Martinich, B. J. DeAngelo, D. Diaz, G. Franco, C. Frisch, J. McFarland, B. O'Neill, A. Light, D. R. Reidmiller, and C. Avery
2:45 PM
TJ2.4
Highlights from the Fourth National Climate Assessment: Human Health
John Balbus, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, Bethesda, MD
3:00 PM
TJ2.5
3:45 PM
Discussion


Joint Panel Discussion 3
Emerging Needs, Opportunities, and Careers in Climate Information Services: Academic Education and Training Programs
Location: North 221C (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; and the 28th Symposium on Education )
Moderator: Stephen E. Zebiak, IRI, Columbia Univ.
Panelists: Cynthia Thomson, 1200 Amsterdam Ave; Corey Gabriel, University of California, San Diego; Roberto J. Mera, North Carolina State University; Miriam Bertram, University of Washington; Abraham Henn, North Arizona University
2:00 PM
JPD3.1
Findings from Themed Joint Session Mind the Gap: Preparing Students for Careers in the Private Sector
Lawrence Gloeckler III, Riskpulse, Philadelphia, PA

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 3
The Other Uncertainty: Social, Political, and Cultural Forms of Uncertainty in Weather Contexts. Part III
Location: North 226AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 14th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; and the Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise )
Cochairs: Julie Demuth, NCAR; Jennifer A. Spinney, Univ. of Western Ontario
2:00 PM
TJ3.1
The Influence of Cultural Worldviews and Risk Perceptions on Severe Weather Preparation
Aimee Franklin, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. Le, M. Brucks, and M. A. Shafer
2:15 PM
TJ3.2
2:45 PM
TJ3.4
Weathering Natural Disasters: Forecasting, Anticipation, and "Out-of-Model Uncertainties" in the Humanitarian Sector
Sara de Wit Jr., Institute for Science, Innovation and Society, Oxford, United Kingdom; and T. Pforr Jr.
3:00 PM
TJ3.5
Uncertainty and Consistency: Key Dimensions in Weather/Hazard Messaging
Susan A. Jasko, California University of Pennsylvania, California, PA; and L. Myers
3:15 PM
TJ3.6
Exploring Uncertainty in Vulnerability and Its Usability in Decision-Making
Olga Wilhelmi, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and P. Romero Lankao and I. Pichardo

Recording files available
Joint Panel Discussion 4
Weather Safety for Outdoor Events
Location: North 222AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; and the Ninth Conference on the Meteorological Application of Lightning Data )
Moderator: Kevin A. Kloesel, Univ. of Oklahoma
Panelists: April Messerly, West Virginia Univ./College Event Facilities; Joe Abernathy, St. Louis Cardinals/Stadium Managers; Jim Foerster, PGA Tour Support/Telvent DTN; Steve Adelman, Adelman Law Group, PLLC/Event Safety Alliance; Eric C. Bruning, Texas Tech Univ; Nate Johnson, NBC Owned Television Stations Group
Digby, Willrick, Messerly, Abernathy, Foerster, Karel, Bardou, Kimmel
Charlie Woodrum, NOAA/NWS, Shreveport, LA

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


2019 NWA/AMS Research Operations Nexus (RON) Meetup-Honoring the Legacy of Ronald W. Przybylinski
Location: North Ballroom 120AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Formal Poster Viewing Reception
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Poster Session
Poster Session
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise
291
Multisystem Seasonal Forecast Capability from the Copernicus Climate Change Service
Anca Brookshaw, ECMWF, Reading, UK; and E. Penabad Ramos, S. Johnson, T. N. Stockdale, L. Ferranti, D. Dee, and J. N. Thépaut

294
A Climatology of Snow to Liquid Ratios in Southeast Alaska
David E. Levin, NOAA/NWS, Juneau, AK

6:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


Exhibits Opening and Reception
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Ribbon Cutting, Opening Reception, and Corporate Patron Recognition
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

8:00 PM-10:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


Fifth Annual Speed Networking Event for Students and Early Career Professionals
Location: North Ballroom 120AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Tuesday, 8 January 2019

7:30 AM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


AMS Information Desk (Tuesday)
Location: North 100 Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Member Services Desk (Tuesday)
Location: North Lower Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Quiet Room (Tuesday)
Location: West 206 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Registration (Tuesday)
Location: North Lower Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Speaker Ready Room (Tuesday)
Location: North 121A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019

Recording files available
Panel Discussion 2
The Student Experience at the AMS Washington Forum
Location: North 221C (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise
Moderator: Renee A. Leduc Clarke, Narayan Strategy
Panelists: Sheila Ngu, Millersville University; Greta Katherine Easthom, Univ. of Maryland, College Park
Ngu, Easthom
Renee A. Leduc Clarke, Narayan Strategy, Washington, MA

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


Guest Coffee (Tuesday)
Location: Hospitality Suite 428 (Sheraton Hotel )

9:00 AM-5:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


Sedona Red Rocks Tours

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


Exhibit Hall (Tuesday)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Poster Hall (Tuesday)
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


AM Coffee Break (Tuesday)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Meet President Roger M. Wakimoto (Tuesday)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019

Recording files available
Panel Discussion 3
Spengler Session: The Future of the U.S. Weather Enterprise
Location: North 222AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise
Moderators: Raymond J. Ban, Ban & Associates and Consultant; Lauren Everett, NRC
Panelists: Douglas Hilderbrand, NOAA/NWS; Bill Gail, Global Weather Corporation; Mary Glackin, THE WEATHER COMPANY/AN IBM BUSINESS; Everette Joseph, SUNY; Douglas Hilderbrand, NOAA/NWS
10:30 AM
Introductory Remarks
10:45 AM
Spengler Award Winner
Raymond J. Ban, Ban & Associates and Consultant, Marietta, GA

11:00 AM
Remarks (Mary Glackin & Bill Gail)

11:15 AM
Remarks (Everette Joseph & Doug Hilderbrand)

11:30 AM
Discussion


Panel Discussion
CANCELLED: Economic Engines: Economic Value of Earth Observation Powered by Economists and Earth Scientists—Your Data Are Worth More Than You May Ever Realize -Part II
Location: North 221C (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise
Moderator: Michael Fox, Raytheon
Panelists: Lawrence Friedl, NASA; Timothy Stryker, USGS Chief; Bethany Mabee, Resources for the Future; Stephen Marley, The Aerospace Corporation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


Lunch Break (Tuesday)

Women in Atmospheric Sciences Luncheon
Location: North Ballroom 120AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

12:15 PM-1:15 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


Exceptional Undergraduate Presentations
Location: North 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

12:45 PM-1:05 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


Daily Weather Briefings (Tuesday)
Location: North 132ABC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019

Recording files available
Panel Discussion 4A
Outcomes from the Automated Vehicles and Meteorology Summit
Location: North 221C (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise
Moderator: John Horel, Univ. of Utah
Panelists: William Mahoney, NCAR; Donald Berchoff, TruWeather Solutions; Graham Hine, Liquid Robotics
Mahoney, Berchoff, Hine
John Horel, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT

1:30 PM
Moderator -- John Horel
1:45 PM
Panelist -- Graham Hine
2:00 PM
Panelist -- Donald Berchoff
2:15 PM
Panelist -- William Mahoney
Recording files available
Panel Discussion 4B
The Global Weather Enterprise
Location: North 222AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise
Moderator: Jack Hayes, Harris Corporation
Panelists: Neil A. Jacobs, NOAA; Peter Platzer, Spire Global, Inc.
1:30 PM
Introductory Remarks

1:45 PM
Jacobs

2:00 PM
Platzer

2:15 PM
Panel Discussion

2:30 PM
The Global Weather Enterprise Forum -- Alan Thorpe

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


PM Coffee Break (Tuesday)
Location: Meeting room foyers (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019

Recording files available
Panel Discussion 5A
Improving Forecasts: Fostering an Enterprise-Wide Dialogue on the Best Path Forward
Location: North 222AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise
Moderator: Dan Stillman, Harris Corporation
Panelists: Matt Lanza, Cheniere Energy; Ross N. Hoffman, ESSIC UMD; Thomas Auligné, Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; Florence Rabier, Director General - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
3:00 PM
Progress in Data Assimilation -- Thomas Auligne
3:00 PM
Latest Advancements in OSSEs -- Ross Hoffman
3:00 PM
Forecast Successes and Challenges -- Matt Lanza
3:00 PM
Panelist -- Florence Rabier
Recording files available
Panel Discussion 5B
Boundary Layer Observing Needs for the Agricultural Community
Location: North 221C (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise
Moderator: John D. Horel, Univ. of Utah
Panelists: Jerald Brotzge, SUNY; Brad Colman, The Climate Corporation; James H. Block, DTN
3:00 PM
Moderator -- John Horel
3:00 PM
Panelist -- Jerald Brotzge
3:00 PM
Panelist -- James Block
3:00 PM
Panelist -- Bradley Colman

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


Book Talks @ Authors Corner (Tues)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Tues)
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

6:00 PM-10:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


University Night Receptions

6:30 PM-8:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


Inez Fung Dinner
Location: West 213AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Wednesday, 9 January 2019

7:25 AM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Quiet Room (Wednesday)
Location: West 206 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

7:30 AM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


AMS Information Desk (Wed)
Location: North 100 Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Member Services Desk (Wed)
Location: North Lower Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Registration (Wed)
Location: North Lower Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Speaker Ready Room (Wed)
Location: North 121A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019

Recording files available
Panel Discussion 6A
Lessons Learned from the 2017 Hurricane Season in Emergency Preparedness
Location: North 222AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise
Moderators: Tanja E. Fransen, NOAA/NWS; Matt Moreland, NOAA/NWS
Panelists: Lucas McDonald, Walmart; Ken Graham, NHC; Marty Senterfitt, Florida Keys Emergency Management; Steve Maloney, Federal Reserve; Rebecca Moulton, FEMA
McDonald, Graham, Senterfitt, Maloney, Moulton
Tanja E. Fransen, NOAA/NWS, Glasgow, MT

Panel Discussion 6B
Extreme Weather at Sea: Bringing 21st Century Weather Services to Mariners
Location: North 221C (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise
Moderator: Allison L. Allen, NOAA/NWS
Panelists: Thomas J. Cuff, NOAA/NWS/Ocean Prediction Center; Christopher Landsea, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center; Kevin Berberich, National Ice Center; Joseph M. Sienkiewicz, NOAA/NWS/Ocean Prediction Center

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Guest Coffee (Wed)
Location: Hospitality Suite 428 (Sheraton Hotel )

9:00 AM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Exhibit Hall (Wed)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Poster Hall (Wednesday)
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

9:30 AM-12:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Tree Planting Guest Volunteer Project

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


AM Coffee Break (Wed)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Meet President Roger M. Wakimoto (Wed)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 2
Assessing, Defining, and Communicating Predictability on the Subseasonal to Seasonal Time Scale
Location: North 222AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise
Chair: Jessie C. Carman, OAR
11:00 AM
2.3
Deterministic and Probabilistic Forecast Skill with an Icosahedral, Vertically Quasi-Lagrangian Coupled Model
Shan Sun, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and R. Bleck, B. W. Green, and S. G. Benjamin

11:15 AM
2.4
An Assessment of Subseasonal Forecast Capability through Global Ensemble
Yuejian Zhu, NCEP, College Park, MD; and W. Li, H. Guan, E. Sinsky, and X. Zhou

11:30 AM
2.5
Developing New Watershed-Based Climate Forecast Products for Water Managers
Andrew W. Wood, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. A. Baker and B. Rajagopalan
11:45 AM
2.6
Transforming Management of Climate Variability Risks with Seasonal and Subseasonal Probability Forecasts
John A. Dutton, ClimBiz Ltd and Prescient Weather Ltd., State College, PA; and R. P. James and J. D. Ross
Recording files available
Panel Discussion 7
Implications of Real-Time Earth Observation Data for Risk Management
Location: North 221C (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise
Moderator: Michael Hurowitz, Orbital Micro Systems, Inc.
Implications of Real-Time Earth Observation Data for Risk Management
Michael Hurowitz, Orbital Micro Systems, Inc., Denver, CO
Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 18
Vulnerability and Extreme Events
Location: North 226AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 14th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; and the Seventh Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation )
Cochairs: Aaron J. Piña, Aeris LLC; Rebecca Haacker, NCAR
10:30 AM
TJ18.1
Examining Vulnerability to Tornadoes Using Census Tract-Level Demographic Data and Tornado Damage Survey Paths
Charles M. Kuster, CIMMS/University of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. T. Ripberger
11:15 AM
TJ18.4
Finescale Assessment of Mobile Home Tornado Vulnerability in the Central and Southeast United States
Walker S. Ashley, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL; and S. M. Strader
11:30 AM
TJ18.5
A Psychological Analysis of Self-Protective Decision-Making during Natural Hazards
Cassandra A. Shivers-Williams, CIMMS, Norman, OK; and A. P. Cole Dixon and T. Adams
11:45 AM
TJ18.6A
Coffee Talk: A Social, Behavioral, and Economic Science Research and Operations Round Table Discussion
Gina M. Eosco, CNSP Support to NOAA/Office of Weather and Air Quality, Silver Spring, MD; and J. Cortinas Jr., J. Sprague, and D. Geppi

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Anthes Luncheon
Location: West 213AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Lunch Break (Wed)

12:45 PM-1:05 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Daily Weather Briefings (Wed)
Location: North 132ABC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019

Recording files available
Joint Session 4
Maritime Extreme Weather: Challenges and Opportunities
Location: North 221C (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Special Symposium on Mesoscale Meteorological Extremes: Understanding, Prediction, and Projection; the 17th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; and the Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise )
Cochairs: Kathryn Gilbert, NCEP; Thomas J. Cuff, NOAA/NWS/Ocean Prediction Center; Mona Behl, The Univ. of Georgia
2:15 PM
J4.4
Crowdsourcing Marine Observations with mPING
Kimberly L. Elmore, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. Berry and A. Gerard

Panel Discussion 8
CEF—Part I
Location: North 222AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise
Moderator: Marie C. Colton, Harris
CEF—Part I
Marie C. Colton, Harris, Silver Spring, MD

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


PM Coffee Break (Wed)
Location: Meeting room foyers (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Panel Discussion 9
CEF—Part II
Location: North 222AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise
Moderator: Marie C. Colton, Harris
3:00 PM
CEF—Part II
Marie C. Colton, Harris, Silver Spring, MD

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Book Talks @ Authors Corner (Wed)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Wed)
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Joint Poster Session 1
Maritime Extreme Weather: Challenges and Opportunities
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Special Symposium on Mesoscale Meteorological Extremes: Understanding, Prediction, and Projection; the Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; and the 17th Symposium on the Coastal Environment )
Cochairs: Kathryn K. Gilbert, NOAA/NWS; Thomas J. Cuff, NOAA/NWS/Ocean Prediction Center; Michael J. DeFlorio, NASA
1093
Spatial Analysis of Ship Traffic in the North Atlantic Ocean during Severe Weather from March 12–19, 2018
Nicole Ashley Casamassina, NCEP, College Park, MD; and J. M. Sienkiewicz and L. J. Phillips

1096

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Awards Banquet Reception
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


99th AMS Awards Banquet
Location: North Ballroom (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Thursday, 10 January 2019

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2019


Meet President Roger M. Wakimoto (Thurs)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019


Walter Orr Robert Lecture