Multisystem Seasonal Forecast Capability from the Copernicus Climate Change Service

Copernicus is the European Commission’s flagship Earth observation programme that delivers freely accessible data and services to an operational schedule. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has been entrusted to operate two key parts of the Copernicus programme, which will bring a consistent standard to the measurement, forecasting and prediction of atmospheric conditions and climate change. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) currently provides a portfolio of products and services that include forecasts for seasonal time scales, as well as the use of such products for key economic sectors in need of tailored climate information. Here we present the current status of seasonal prediction component, as well as future plans for including climate prediction activities in the service.

The C3S a seasonal forecast service is based on a multi-system framework. Data from state-of-the-art seasonal forecast systems with operational status at a number of European institution is collected by C3S, where forecast products are generated and made available to the public in graphical and digital format. Some of the elements of the participating forecast systems have been harmonised, to optimise the benefits available to users (e.g. minimum hindcast period and ensemble size). The outputs - which include real-time forecasts and hindcasts, as well as graphical products from the individual contributing systems and as a combination - are available at a standard resolution, in standardised formats. The systems currently participating in the C3S seasonal service are from ECMWF, the UK’s Met Office, Meteo France, CMCC and DWD; by 2019 year non-European centres (among which NCEP) are also likely to join the service as contributors.

As well an overview of the range of products currently available and their likely applicability, both in research and decision making, we will describe the latest version of ECWMF’s seasonal forecast system, SEAS5, as an example of the forecast systems at the core of this service.

The seasonal component of the C3S will continue to expand: in the near-term by increasing the number of graphical and digital products, and in the longer term by increasing the number of contributors to the service, thus providing enhanced information in support of climate services. We will discuss the plans for C3S to include decadal predictions in its new portfolio, in response to user interest in climate information on interannual timescales.