Exploring Uncertainty in Vulnerability and Its Usability in Decision-Making

Qualitative and quantitative vulnerability analyses are frequently used to better understand past, present, and future impacts of extreme weather and climate change on population and ecosystems; to inform decision- and policy-makers how to mitigate these impacts; and to guide interventions seeking to build community resilience. Uncertainty is an integral part of vulnerability assessments and risk modeling. However, uncertainty in vulnerability has not received as much attention as uncertainty in numerical weather forecasting and climate prediction. Despite the growing importance of risk and vulnerability analyses in weather disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation, characterizing socioeconomic and biophysical uncertainty remains one of the challenges in vulnerability science and applications. In this presentation, we will explore uncertainty in vulnerability in both research and decision making. We will review the current state of knowledge about uncertainty in vulnerability, synthesize the main drivers of uncertainty in vulnerability analyses, and discuss the role uncertainty in vulnerability in decision-making. We will present results from stakeholder interviews conducted in 2017-2018 in Houston and Mexico City, and highlight the stakeholders’ understanding and use of uncertainty in vulnerability studies, using examples of extreme heat and flooding.