Communicating Uncertainty in Weather, Climate, and Hydrological Predictions: Recent Progress and a Path Forward (Core Science Keynote)

Uncertainties in weather, climate, and hydrological predictions are multi-dimensional and complex. Thus, it can be challenging to convey predictive uncertainties in ways that are both accurate and sufficiently succinct to be usable and useful, especially in today’s information landscape. These challenges are further complicated by the multiple individual and societal factors that influence how people perceive risks, interpret risk information, and make decisions under uncertainty. In this presentation, I will discuss recent progress in understanding these intersecting areas, with a focus on findings from social science and interdisciplinary research. Based on this growing body of relevant knowledge, I will then propose a path forward for improving communication of weather- and climate-related predictive uncertainty.