Session 2 Assessing, Defining, and Communicating Predictability on the Subseasonal to Seasonal Time Scale

Wednesday, 9 January 2019: 10:30 AM-12:00 PM
North 222AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise
Submitters:
Jessie C. Carman, OAR, OWAQ, Silver Spring, MD; Bradford Johnson, Trivector Services, Inc./NOAA/OAR, Silver Spring, MD and David McCarren, Navy/CNMOC, Silver Springs, MD
Chair:
Jessie C. Carman, OAR, OWAQ, Silver Spring, MD

Various industries, agencies, and municipalities are increasingly dependent upon weather information beyond two weeks in efforts to leverage opportunities, mitigate socioeconomic impacts, and solidify the resilience of infrastructure. Traditionally, weather and climate information is relayed to end users in different manners. Weather forecasts under two weeks are usually presented in the form of diurnal extrema with a focus on relatively specific temporal windows for impact events, whereas, information on the seasonal or longer scale is shown relative to climatological averages and trends. While both of these techniques have useful components, neither has proven to be completely sufficient when coupled with current capabilities on the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale defined by the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 as two weeks to two years. Through the National Earth System Prediction Capability partnership is focused on improving predictive capability in S2S. Model developers seeking to meet this challenge can benefit from access to best practices in the dissemination of weather information. In the development of an effective communication framework, this session highlights current work focused on predictability in S2S through quantitative and qualitative approaches designed to meet user needs. The session seeks speakers with expertise in evaluation and definition of predictability on weather and climate scales with techniques geared to S2S portability as well as speakers with experience and perspectives in research to operations and operations to research.

Papers:
11:00 AM
2.3
Deterministic and Probabilistic Forecast Skill with an Icosahedral, Vertically Quasi-Lagrangian Coupled Model
Shan Sun, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and R. Bleck, B. W. Green, and S. G. Benjamin

11:15 AM
2.4
An Assessment of Subseasonal Forecast Capability through Global Ensemble
Yuejian Zhu, NCEP, College Park, MD; and W. Li, H. Guan, E. Sinsky, and X. Zhou

11:30 AM
2.5
Developing New Watershed-Based Climate Forecast Products for Water Managers
Andrew W. Wood, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. A. Baker and B. Rajagopalan
11:45 AM
2.6
Transforming Management of Climate Variability Risks with Seasonal and Subseasonal Probability Forecasts
John A. Dutton, ClimBiz Ltd and Prescient Weather Ltd., State College, PA; and R. P. James and J. D. Ross
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner