The NMME and SubX Projects: Status, Challenges, and Opportunities (Invited Presentation)

This talk describes the current status of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project and the Sub-seasonal prediction experiment (SubX). The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) experimentis an effort to improve seasonaloperational predictions based on the leading North American climate models. The sub-seasonalexperiment (SubX) is a multi-model sub-seasonal prediction experiment with both a research and real-time component. Seven global models have produced seventeen years of retrospective (re-) forecasts and one year of weekly real-time forecasts. This talk describes results from the analysis of the retrospective forecast quality for the individual models and the multi-model ensemble from both prediction efforts including the bias, and deterministic and probabilistic measures. The emphasis is on T2m and precipitation, but some phenomenological (e.g., MJO, tropical storms) measure of performance are also provided. Specific case studies of success (and failure) are also noted. This talk also challenges and opportunities that have emerge based on these projects.