Analysis of Temporal Changes in Years-of-Life-Lost Due to Heat in Urban Population of the Czech Republic

The study resumes previous research that found significant effects of hot spells on increased mortality in highly urbanized regions of the Czech Republic, and declining trends in heat-related mortality in the Czech population as a whole. In recent years, however, an abatement of the declining trends was found, caused not only by the higher frequency of extreme heat waves but also by the population ageing. The aim of this study was to better identify the influence of the population ageing on temporal changes in vulnerability to heat. For this purpose we employed the years-of-life-lost approach considering the life expectancy at the time of each death and allowing for investigating differences in the general health condition in different populations. Using an updated gridded meteorological database and the novel Excess Heat Factor formula, we identified heat waves occurring during 1994–2015 in the three biggest urban areas of the Czech Republic (Prague, Brno, Ostrava), and we analyzed temporal changes in their effects on years-of-life-lost due to premature deaths (from all causes and cardiovascular diseases, separately). The temporal changes attributable to heat were analyzed with respect to potential effect modifiers such as temporal changes in air quality and socioeconomic status of the population. Results of this study are important for better understanding of the health risks associated with climate change in different parts of the population, which is a necessary step for implementation of effective adaptation measures.