The Phenomenal Intensification of Hurricane Maria (2017)

The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season was projected to be an above active season and it lived up to the forecast, with September 2017 being the most active month on record in the Atlantic Basin. The standouts in the season were Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria which could have experienced one of the most rapid intensification rates in the Caribbean and the Atlantic Basin, as well as an extreme peak intensity and wind speeds recorded at 257 km hr^-1. The rapid intensification of Maria in less than 15 hours from Category 1 to Category 5 was outstanding and occurred on Monday 18^th September 2017 as the hurricane approached the island of Dominica. According to the initial model forecasts from ECWMF, GFS and NHC SHIPS, Maria was expected to pass the Lesser Antilles as a Category 1 hurricane, and intensify to a Category 3 hurricane thereafter within two to three days. What happened? What was missed in the forecast? What environmental factors led to such rapid intensification? Early investigations show that the rapid intensification was linked to anomalously warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around the central Lesser Antilles.

This paper investigates, in addition to SSTs, the possible physical processes responsible for the rapid intensification of Maria via the analysis of surface and upper atmospheric observations, satellite imagery and derived products. What role could climate change have in this and future storms’ rapid intensification and development?