Modeling the Biosphere in 2050: Successes and Failures, Consensus and Controversies

Climate science has expanded to a broad viewpoint that embraces the interconnections among planetary physics, chemistry, and biology and one in which terrestrial ecosystems are seen as a central component of the Earth system. This broadening from the geosciences to biogeosciences is especially evident in the development of Earth system models, with a multidisciplinary perspective that includes terrestrial ecosystems, the plants, microbes, and other organisms that inhabit ecosystems, and the exchanges of energy and materials between ecosystems and the atmosphere. This viewpoint challenges biogeoscientists to define the rules by which organisms, communities, and ecosystems function at large spatial scales and at timescales ranging from sub-hourly to centuries. Earth system models have been particularly useful to identify ecological and biogeochemical processes that govern past, present, and future climate. With Earth system models, the atmospheric science community’s traditional emphasis on weather and climate can be extended to a more multifaceted Earth system prediction, including the biosphere, biogeochemical cycles, and biological resources. This contribution examines the challenges and opportunities as the science moves beyond climate projections to predict the future state of the biosphere. It reflects on the past 30 years of scientific advancement to see how we arrived at the current state of the science and looks at the next 30 years to see what is needed. Particular emphasis is placed on the challenges and opportunities of interdisciplinary research in a culture of disciplinary chauvinism. Bridging the gap between observations and theory as atmospheric CO₂ rises, climate changes, more nitrogen is added to the system, forests are cleared, and grasslands are plowed or degraded poses inspiring opportunities for the next generation of scientists to advance planetary ecology and climate science.