Monday, 7 January 2019: 3:15 PM
North 129A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Even with the new HRRRv3/RAPv4 version just implemented at NCEP in July 2018, a yet newer version with significant improvements developed since June 2017 is over 60% ready. This new version has major improvements in model physics and data assimilation that are significant especially for solar forecasting but also for wind forecasting.
Key components will be briefly described in the paper for an energy audience along with their impact on wind and solar forecasts
- Significant improvements to boundary-layer modeling and its representation of subgrid-scale clouds.
- Revision to radiation and land-surface modeling.
- Introduction of new surface albedo and soil fields
- 3-km ensemble data assimilation applied hourly within HRRRv4.
- A new gravity-wave drag component
- Addition of smoke to both HRRRv4 and RAPv5, affecting radiation and boundary-layer behavior especially during summer.
- Probability forecasts from the HRRR Ensemble
Latest results from this version of HRRRv4 and RAPv5 for renewable energy components will be described along with the latest implementation planned for February 2020 at NCEP.
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