10th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy

Program Chairs: Jennifer F. Newman , REsurety, Inc. ; Jerry Crescenti ; Justin Sharp , Sharply Focused LLC ; Lawrence C. Gloeckler III , SUNY Albany ; Jennifer Newman , REsurety, Inc. ; Chris Coleman , ERCOT ; Jerry Crescenti , REsurety, Inc.
Reviewers: David John Gagne II , NCAR ; Chris Coleman , ERCOT

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Sunday, 6 January 2019

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4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Sunday, 6 January 2019


Plenary Session
Presidential Forum: Building Resilience to Extreme Political Weather: Advice for Unpredictable Times
Location: North Ballroom 120CD (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Presidential Forum and Annual Meeting Welcome; the Seventh Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; the 16th Conference on Space Weather; the 17th History Symposium; the 20th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 22nd Atmospheric Science Librarians International Conference; the 24th Conference on Applied Climatology; the 28th Symposium on Education; the 35th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 23rd Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 17th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 10th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Ninth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Seventh Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; the Fifth Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Phased Array Radar Symposium; the Special Symposium on Meteorological Observations and Instrumentation; the Ninth Conference on the Meteorological Application of Lightning Data; the Ninth Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the 10th Conference on Environment and Health; the 18th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 19th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 32nd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 33rd Conference on Hydrology; the Richard Anthes Symposium; the Special Symposium on Mesoscale Meteorological Extremes: Understanding, Prediction, and Projection; the Second Conference on Earth Observing SmallSats; the Seventh AMS Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Ninth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; the 11th Symposium on Aerosol–Cloud–Climate Interactions; the 14th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the 21st Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Fourth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; and the Events )
Moderator: Michael Henry, American Institute of Physics
Presider: Roger Wakimoto, Univ. of California, Los Angeles
Speakers: Dan Kahan, American Institute of Physics; David Goldston, MIT
4:00 PM
Presidential Forum: Building Resilience to Extreme Political Weather: Advice for Unpredictable Times

Monday, 7 January 2019

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

7:30 AM-6:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


AMS Information Desk (Monday)
Location: North 100 Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Quiet Room (Monday)
Location: West 206 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Registration (Monday)
Location: North Lower Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Speaker Ready Room (Monday)
Location: North 121A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

8:30 AM-9:00 AM: Monday, 7 January 2019


Session 1
Opening Remarks
Location: North 129A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 10th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 7 January 2019

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 1
Mind the Gap: Preparing Students for Careers in the Private Sector
Location: North 229AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 28th Symposium on Education; the Seventh Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise; and the 10th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy )
Cochairs: Andrea L. Lang, University at Albany, SUNY; Lawrence Gloeckler III, Riskpulse
Panelists: Joshua Darr, JLT Re; Robert W. Carver, Loon, LLC; Heidi Centola, Board of Enterprise Economic Development; Paul J. Roebber, Univ. of Wisconsin; Amanda Adams, NSF; Jason C. Furtado, Univ. of Oklahoma
Darr, Carver, Centola, Roebber, Adams, Furtado
Andrea L. Lang, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 7 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 2
Department of Energy Projects
Location: North 129A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 10th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Justin Sharp, Sharply Focused LLC; David D. Turner, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
9:00 AM
2.1
The National Solar Radiation Data Base: Version 3 (1998−2017)
Manajit Sengupta, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and A. Habte, Y. Xie, A. Lopez, J. Shelby, M. J. Foster, and A. Heidinger
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
2.2
Modeling of Spectral Irradiance in the POA Using GOES Satellite Data
Yu Xie, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and M. Sengupta
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
2.3
A Turbulence Library for Asynchronous Coupling of Meso- and Microscale Models
Gökhan Sever, ANL, Argonne, IL; and R. Kotamarthi and Y. Feng
Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM
2.4
Operational Probabilistic Tools for Solar Uncertainty
Aidan Tuohy, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA; and D. B. Kirk-Davidoff
Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.6 MB)

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 7 January 2019


Guest Coffee (Monday)
Location: Camelback A (Sheraton Hotel )

9:00 AM-7:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


Poster Hall (Monday)
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 7 January 2019


AM Coffee Break (Monday)
Location: Meeting room foyers (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:00 AM-6:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


Member Services Desk (Monday)
Location: North Lower Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 3
Solar Forecasting: Part I
Location: North 129A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 10th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Justin Sharp, Sharply Focused LLC; Jeffrey M. Freedman, Univ. at Albany, SUNY
10:30 AM
3.1
Forecasting Variability in Local Area Photovoltaic Power Generation using the Dynamic Mode Decomposition
Jeff Manning, The Univ. of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX
Recorded Presentation

Handout (498.1 kB)

10:45 AM
3.2
The Impact of Early Morning Infrared Satellite-Based Cloud Advection Forecasts on Solar Forecast Error in Hawaii
Steven H. Young, UL, Albany, NY; and D. Kirk-Davidoff
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
3.3
Forecasting Cloud Index with an Advection Model and Data Assimilation
Travis M. Harty, The Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and M. Morzfeld, W. F. Holmgren, and A. T. Lorenzo
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
3.4
Comparison of a Regime-Dependent Artificial Neural Network Method to a Regression Tree Method for Short-Range Solar Power Forecasting
Tyler C. McCandless, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Dettling and S. E. Haupt
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
3.5
Evaluation of Intraday Distributed PV Forecasts with Customized Metrics based on Operational Grid Management Decision-Making Scenarios
John Zack, MESO, Inc., Troy, NY
Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM
3.6
Surface Temperature Anomalies and Solar Irradiance
Alexander Kubiniec, Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


Lunch Break (Monday)

12:15 PM-1:45 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019

Recording files available
Presidential Town Hall with Marcia McNutt: Charting a Course for Evidence-Based Policy in the Face of “Extreme Events”
Location: North Ballroom 120CD (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Presidential Town Hall Meetings; the Events; the 35th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 23rd Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 17th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 10th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Ninth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Seventh Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation; and the Fifth Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate )
Speaker: Marcia McNutt, President, National Academy of Sciences
12:15 PM
Presidential Town Hall with Marcia McNutt: Charting a course for Evidence-Based Policy in the Face of Extreme Events
Marcia McNutt, President, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC
Recorded Presentation

12:45 PM-1:05 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


Daily Weather Briefings (Monday)
Location: North 132ABC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


How to Become a Better Presenter
Location: North 231C (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

2:00 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 4
Solar Forecasting: Part II
Location: North 129A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 10th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Jeffrey M. Freedman, Univ. at Albany, SUNY; Robert D'Arienzo, IBM
2:00 PM
4.1
Enhancing WRF-Solar to Provide Probabilistic Cloud Optimized Day-Ahead Forecasts
Pedro A. Jimenez, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Sengupta, Y. Xie, J. H. Kim, J. Dudhia, and B. Kosovic
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
4.2
Advancing Solar Irradiance Nowcasts on Long Island: Blending WRF-Solar with Observations
Jared A. Lee, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Dettling, S. E. Haupt, and T. Brummet
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
4.3
Solar Radiation in Different Cloud Regimes Using WRF-Solar Simulations
Xin Zhou, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY; and Y. Liu, W. Lin, S. Endo, and S. Yoo
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
4.4
Sensitivity of Solar Generation Forecast Skill to WRF Parameterization Choices under Central Valley and Coastal Fog Conditions
Daniel Kirk-Davidoff, UL, Albany, NY; and A. Tuohy, K. Craig, and N. Kumar
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM
4.5
Improving Forecasts of Shallow Cumulus for Solar Energy Applications Using Single-Column Modeling and the LASSO Cases
Wayne M. Angevine, CIRES, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. B. Olson, J. Kenyon, W. I. Gustafson Jr., S. Endo, K. Suselj, D. D. Turner, G. Feingold, and I. Glenn
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
4.6
Better Solar and Wind Forecasts from 2019−20 HRRR/RAP from Improved Clouds
Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. B. Olson, C. R. Alexander, J. Kenyon, T. T. Ladwig, E. P. James, M. Hu, G. Grell, J. M. Brown, and D. D. Turner
Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM
4.7
Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasts Using a Large Ensemble
Stephen D. Jascourt, Radiant Solutions, Gaithersburg, MD; and C. Cassidy, E. E. Wertz, and T. Hartman
Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.7 MB)

3:45 PM
4.8
Open Source Evaluation Framework for Solar Forecasting
William F. Holmgren, The Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and C. W. Hansen, A. Tuohy, J. Sharp, A. T. Lorenzo, and A. Golnas
Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


2019 NWA/AMS Research Operations Nexus (RON) Meetup-Honoring the Legacy of Ronald W. Przybylinski
Location: North Ballroom 120AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Formal Poster Viewing Reception
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Poster Session 1
Poster Session
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 10th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
CoChair: Jennifer Newman, REsurety, Inc.
246A
Assessment of Medium-Range Model Forecasts over the CONUS during an Active MJO Phase
Sofia de Solo, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, FL; and E. Strobach and J. C. Alpert

246
The Correlation between Agricultural Commodities and Weather Patterns
Colleen Peterson, North Florida Chapter of AMS, Tallahassee, FL

247
Diagnosing and Predicting Thunderstorm-Induced Power Outages
Matthew D. Eastin, Univ. of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC; and R. Cucinotta

248
Benchmark Solar Power Forecasts
William F. Holmgren, The Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and A. T. Lorenzo, C. W. Hansen, J. Sharp, and A. Tuohy

249
Diagnosing the Potential for Thunderstorm-Induced Power Outages with the Rapid Refresh Model
Rachel Cucinotta, Univ. of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC; and M. D. Eastin

250
Assessing Wind Representation in Reanalyses and Methods of Extrapolation to Hub Height for the Upper Midwest
Jacob Coburn, Univ. of Minnesota, Twin Cities, Minneapolis, MN

Handout (842.1 kB)

6:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


Exhibits Opening and Reception
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Ribbon Cutting, Opening Reception, and Corporate Patron Recognition
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

8:00 PM-10:00 PM: Monday, 7 January 2019


Fifth Annual Speed Networking Event for Students and Early Career Professionals
Location: North Ballroom 120AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Tuesday, 8 January 2019

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

7:30 AM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


AMS Information Desk (Tuesday)
Location: North 100 Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Member Services Desk (Tuesday)
Location: North Lower Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Quiet Room (Tuesday)
Location: West 206 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Registration (Tuesday)
Location: North Lower Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Speaker Ready Room (Tuesday)
Location: North 121A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 5
Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change
Location: North 129A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 10th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Chris Coleman, ERCOT; Eric E. Wertz, Radiant Solutions
8:30 AM
5.1
High-Resolution Dynamic Downscaling of CMIP5 Model Data to Assess the Effects of Climate Change on Renewable Energy Distribution in New York State: Project Overview and Preliminary Results
Jeffrey M. Freedman, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. Perez, A. Dai, J. M. Covert, S. Chen, A. Stevens, J. Manobianco, D. B. Kirk-Davidoff, P. Beaucage, and A. Gothandaraman
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
5.2
The Potential, Viability, and Co-Benefits of Developing Wind Energy to Mitigate Climate Change in the Caribbean
Lawrence Pologne, Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, St. James, Barbados; and L. A. Nurse and J. L. Charlery
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
5.3
Integrating Atmospheric Modeling and Energy Modeling to Quantify the Air Quality and Mitigation Impacts of Clean Energy Strategies in the United States
David Abel, Univ. of Wisconsin−Madison, Madison, WI; and T. Holloway and M. K. Harkey

9:15 AM
5.4
The Added Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasting for Integrated Risk Assessment (SECLI-FIRM) EU H2020 Project
Alberto Troccoli, Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom
Recorded Presentation

Handout (23.8 MB)

9:30 AM
5.5
Pricing Financial Market Instruments to Protect against, and to Speculate about, Climate Change: An Update
Harvey Stern, Univ. of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
Recorded Presentation

Handout (564.5 kB)

9:45 AM
5.6
Mitigating Climate Impacts on Society: Climate Services Toolkit Coordination, Development, and Implementation
Marina Timofeyeva, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and R. Pulwarty, P. Hechler, C. Van Meerbeeck, A. Trotman, A. F. Kamga, R. K. Kolli, M. Dilley, and J. P. Ceron

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


Guest Coffee (Tuesday)
Location: Hospitality Suite 428 (Sheraton Hotel )

9:00 AM-5:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


Sedona Red Rocks Tours

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


Exhibit Hall (Tuesday)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Poster Hall (Tuesday)
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


AM Coffee Break (Tuesday)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Meet President Roger M. Wakimoto (Tuesday)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 2
Impacts of Extreme Weather Events on the Energy Sector (Joint with Financial Weather Risk Committee)
Location: North 129A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 10th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Moderator: John Zack, MESO, Inc.
Panelists: Carl Ostridge, REsurety; Kimberly Roberts, JLT Re; Nick Keener, Duke Energy; Jon Davis, Riskpulse
10:30 AM
Impacts of Extreme Weather Events on the Energy Sector -- Jennifer Newman
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


Lunch Break (Tuesday)

Women in Atmospheric Sciences Luncheon
Location: North Ballroom 120AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

12:15 PM-1:15 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


Exceptional Undergraduate Presentations
Location: North 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

12:45 PM-1:05 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


Daily Weather Briefings (Tuesday)
Location: North 132ABC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019

Recording files available
Joint Session 4
Extratropical Impacts Linked to MJO and Monsoon Variability
Location: North 129A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 10th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; and the Seventh Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
Cochairs: Lawrence Gloeckler III, Riskpulse; Nick Keener, Duke Energy
1:30 PM
J4.1
Middle East and Southwest Asia Daily Precipitation Characteristics Associated with the Madden−Julian Oscillation during Boreal Winter
Andrew Hoell, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and F. Cannon, M. Barlow, and J. K. Eischeid
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
J4.2
Extratropical−Tropical Teleconnection during the Summer Monsoon Season over Indian Region
Rajib Chattopadhyay, IITM, Pune, India; and M. Kalshetti and A. Sahai
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
J4.3
The Role of MJO Propagation, Lifetime, and Intensity on Modulating the Temporal Evolution of the MJO Extratropical Response
Cheng Zheng, Stony Brook Univ., Stony Brook, NY; and E. K. M. Chang
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


PM Coffee Break (Tuesday)
Location: Meeting room foyers (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 6
Wind Forecasting
Location: North 129A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 10th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Robert D'Arienzo, IBM
CoChair: James Wilczak, NOAA/ESRL/PSD
3:00 PM
6.1
Utilizing Climatological Analysis to Improve Forecasting of Offshore Wind Ramps
Dana E. Veron, Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE; and J. F. Brodie, T. Miles, B. P. Frei, and E. Allen
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
6.2
Mesoscale to Microscale Coupling for a Wind Ramp Case over Complex Terrain
Patrick Hawbecker, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and M. J. Churchfield
Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM
6.3
Improving Simulation of Turbulence in WRF-LES of Stable Condition Using Velocity Fluctuations
Raj Rai, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA; and L. K. Berg, B. Kravitz, B. Kosovic, J. D. Mirocha, B. Ennis, and S. E. Haupt

3:45 PM
6.4
Sensitivity of Wind Turbine Array Downstream Effects to the Parameterization used in WRF
T. J. Shepherd, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and P. Volker, R. J. Barthelmie, A. N. Hahmann, and S. C. Pryor
Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


Book Talks @ Authors Corner (Tues)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Tues)
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

6:00 PM-10:00 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


University Night Receptions

6:30 PM-8:30 PM: Tuesday, 8 January 2019


Inez Fung Dinner
Location: West 213AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Wednesday, 9 January 2019

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

7:25 AM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Quiet Room (Wednesday)
Location: West 206 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

7:30 AM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


AMS Information Desk (Wed)
Location: North 100 Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Member Services Desk (Wed)
Location: North Lower Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Registration (Wed)
Location: North Lower Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Speaker Ready Room (Wed)
Location: North 121A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 7
The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2): Part I
Location: North 129A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 10th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Katherine McCaffrey, CIRES; Jerry Crescenti
8:30 AM
7.1
The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2): An Overview of Progress
William J. Shaw, PNNL, Richland, WA; and J. Cline, C. Draxl, E. P. Grimit, J. K. Lundquist, J. McCaa, M. Marquis, J. B. Olson, J. Sharp, C. Sivaraman, and J. M. Wilczak
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
7.2
Improved Understanding and Modeling of Key Atmospheric Phenomena during WFIP2: Cold Pools, Gap Flows, and Mountain Waves
James Wilczak, NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and K. McCaffrey, C. Draxl, R. M. Banta, J. B. Olson, M. T. Stoelinga, L. K. Berg, L. Bianco, A. Choukulkar, I. V. Djalalova, E. P. Grimit, D. L. Jackson, J. Kenyon, P. Muradyan, Y. Pichugina, J. Sharp, W. J. Shaw, and R. Worsnop
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
7.3
Bulk Statistics of 80-m Wind Speeds of Reforecast Runs from HRRR and HRRRNEST Models during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2). Part I
Laura Bianco, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and I. V. Djalalova, J. M. Wilczak, J. B. Olson, J. S. Kenyon, L. K. Berg, A. Choukulkar, D. Cook, R. Eckman, H. J. S. Fernando, E. P. Grimit, J. K. Lundquist, M. T. Stoelinga, and S. Wharton
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
7.4
Ramp Skill of Reforecast Runs from HRRR and HRRRNEST Models during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2). Part II
Irina V. Djalalova, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and L. Bianco, E. Akish, J. Wilczak, J. Olson, J. S. Kenyon, L. K. Berg, A. Choukulkar, D. Cook, R. M. Eckman, H. J. S. Fernando, E. P. Grimit, J. K. Lundquist, M. T. Stoelinga, and S. Wharton
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
7.5
Evaluation of Model Error by Lidar Measurements during Various Atmospheric Phenomena Observed in Complex Terrain
Yelena Pichugina, CIRES, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO; and R. M. Banta, T. A. Bonin, A. W. Brewer, A. Choukulkar, K. McCaffrey, H. J. S. Fernando, E. P. Grimit, J. Kenyon, M. Marquis, J. B. Olson, J. Sharp, M. T. Stoelinga, and J. M. Wilczak

9:45 AM
7.6
Boundary Layer Wind Jet Observed during the Second Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP-2)
Virendra Ghate, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont, IL; and R. Kotamarthi, C. Draxl, J. Olson, J. Wilczak, L. K. Berg, H. J. S. Fernando, D. J. Gottas, R. Eckman, and B. Reese
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Guest Coffee (Wed)
Location: Hospitality Suite 428 (Sheraton Hotel )

9:00 AM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Exhibit Hall (Wed)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Poster Hall (Wednesday)
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

9:30 AM-12:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Tree Planting Guest Volunteer Project

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


AM Coffee Break (Wed)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Meet President Roger M. Wakimoto (Wed)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 8
The Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2): Part II
Location: North 129A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 10th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: William J. Shaw, PNNL; Yelena L. Pichugina, NOAA
10:30 AM
8.1
Using Nacelle-Mounted Anemometer Measurements to Analyze a Complex Terrain Effect on Wind Flow Pattern
Brandi J. McCarty, CIRES, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO; and Y. Pichugina, A. Choukulkar, T. A. Bonin, M. Marquis, and J. Sharp

10:45 AM
8.2
Observations of Wind Turbine Wake and Wind Plant Wake in the Columbia River Gorge Using a Scanning Doppler Lidar
Aditya Choukulkar, Univ. of Colorado Boulder and NOAA/ESRL/Chemical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO; and B. J. McCarty, Y. Pichugina, T. A. Bonin, R. Banta, S. P. Sandberg, A. M. Weickmann, and A. Brewer
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
8.3
Simulating Scanning Lidar Data Using Spatiotemporally Resolved LES Data
Raj Rai, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA; and L. K. Berg, R. K. Newsom, and J. D. Mirocha

11:15 AM
8.4
Surface Energy Balance Closure at Different Temporal Scales in the WFIP2 HRRR Model
Katherine McCaffrey, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and A. A. Grachev, B. W. Blomquist, J. B. Olson, and J. M. Wilczak
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
8.5
Evaluation of the Impact of Lateral Mixing in the New WRF 3D PBL Parameterization
Masih Eghdami, Duke Univ., Durham, NC; and P. A. Jimenez, B. Kosovic, and A. P. Barros
Recorded Presentation

8.6
Evaluation of Coupled Meso−Microscale Simulations of the WFIP 2 Physics Site

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Anthes Luncheon
Location: West 213AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Lunch Break (Wed)

12:45 PM-1:05 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Daily Weather Briefings (Wed)
Location: North 132ABC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Robert E. Horton Lecture
Recording files available
Session 9
Wind Resource Assessment: Part I
Location: North 129A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 10th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Chris Coleman, ERCOT; Andrew Hastings-Black, Vaisala, Inc.
1:30 PM
9.1
Validation and Comparison of Mesoscale Model Setups for Offshore Wind Resource Assessment: A New Jersey Case Study
Andrew Kumler, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and M. Optis, P. J. Moriarty, J. F. Brodie, T. Miles, G. Scott, C. Draxl, and W. Musial

1:45 PM
9.2
Assessment of the Wind Energy Potential in Bangladesh
Jared A. Lee, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Jacobson, T. Capozzola, C. Draxl, F. Vandenberghe, T. Jimenez, and S. E. Haupt
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
9.3
The Variable Relationship between Observed and Reanalysis Wind Speeds: Effects on P50 Bias
Jennifer F. Newman, REsurety, Inc., Boston, MA
Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.5 MB)

9.4
Impact of Surface Topography and Atmospheric Stability on Interactions of Wind Turbine Wakes

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


PM Coffee Break (Wed)
Location: Meeting room foyers (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 10
Wind Resource Assessment: Part II
Location: North 129A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 10th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Jennifer Newman, REsurety, Inc.; Yelena L. Pichugina, CIRA
3:00 PM
10.1
Evaluation on the Trends of Global Wind Resource and Its Variability
Joseph C. Y. Lee, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and M. J. Fields and J. K. Lundquist
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
10.2
Climatology of Wind Energy Variability for the Kuwait Region
Steven M. Naegele, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and T. C. McCandless, S. E. Haupt, G. S. Young, and S. J. Greybush
Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM
10.3
Diagnostic Assessment and Potential Predictability of Regional and Large-Scale Wind Droughts in the Conterminous United States
Bradfield Lyon, Univ. of Maine, Orono, Orono, ME
Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Book Talks @ Authors Corner (Wed)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Wed)
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Awards Banquet Reception
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


99th AMS Awards Banquet
Location: North Ballroom (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Thursday, 10 January 2019

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

7:30 AM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019


AMS Information Desk (Thurs)
Location: North 100 Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Member Services Desk (Thurs)
Location: North Lower Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Quiet Room (Thursday)
Location: West 206 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Registration (Thurs)
Location: North Lower Level Prefunction (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

7:30 AM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019


Speaker Ready Room (Thurs)
Location: North 121A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 11
Big Data Analytics Providing Decision Support
Location: North 129A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 10th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Andrew Hastings-Black, Vaisala, Inc.; Sue Ellen Haupt, NCAR
8:30 AM
11.1
The Use of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Model in Dynamic Line Rating
Kenneth R. Fenton Jr., NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and M. S. Wandishin, M. A. Petty, T. McJunkin, A. Abboud, J. P. Lehmer, and J. Gentle
Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM
11.2
Identifying, Quantifying, and Analyzing Behind-the-Meter Renewables
Robert Haas, Radiant Solutions, Gaithersburg, MD; and E. E. Wertz, S. D. Jascourt, and T. Hartman
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
11.3
Integration of High-Resolution Weather Data to Combat Wildfires and Extreme Weather Events for Utility Applications
Robert D'Arienzo, IBM, New York, NY; and R. Thompson, R. Trogo-Pantola, and C. Reese
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
11.4
Development of a Wind Extremes Forecast System for Transmission Outage Prediction
Jeffrey M. Freedman, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. Zack, M. Berlinger, C. Cheng, and A. Siemenn
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2019


Meeting with Sustainable Cities Network of Arizona
Location: Estrella (Sheraton Hotel )

9:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019


Exhibit Hall (Thurs)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

9:30 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2019


Exhibit Hall Breakfast
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2019


Meet President Roger M. Wakimoto (Thurs)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019

Recording files available
Joint Session 3
Machine Learning Applications in the Energy Sector (Joint with 18th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences)
Location: North 129A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 10th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; and the 18th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences )
Cochairs: David John Gagne II, NCAR; Lawrence Gloeckler III, Riskpulse
10:30 AM
J3.1
Artificial Intelligence and Meteorology Empowering Renewable Energy
Sue Ellen Haupt, NCAR, Boulder, CO
Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM
J3.2
Statistical Modeling of Wind Plant Power Production: Contrasting Different Machine Learning Algorithms and Atmospheric Features
Mike Optis, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO

Handout (1.6 MB)

11:15 AM
J3.3
The Super Turbine Wind Power Conversion Paradox: Using Machine Learning to Overcome Jensen’s Inequality
Tyler C. McCandless, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. E. Haupt
Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM
J3.4
The Relationship between GHI and Power in Kuwait
Thomas Brummet, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Wiener and J. A. Lee
Recorded Presentation

J3.5
Reducing Wind Power Prediction Uncertainty with Atmospheric Characterization and Machine Learning Models

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019


Lunch Break (Thurs)

12:45 PM-1:05 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019


Daily Weather Briefings (Thurs)
Location: North 132ABC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

1:00 PM-4:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019


Excursion

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019


Walter Orr Robert Lecture

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 12
General Topics in the Energy Sector
Location: North 129A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 10th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: John Zack, AWS Truepower LLC; Jeffrey M. Freedman, Univ. at Albany, SUNY
1:30 PM
12.1
Evidence of Climate Change in Nigeria: An Assessment of Recent Extreme Events
Eric Ugochukwu Olewuike, National Root Crops Research Institute, Umuahia, Nigeria

1:45 PM
12.2
On the Lack of Enhanced Vertical Mixing near the Ground under the Wake of a Wind Turbine during the 2016 VERTEX Field Campaign
Sicheng Wu, Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE; and C. L. Archer and R. Delgado

2:00 PM
12.3
Geospatial Energy Potential and Life Cycle Assessment of Nearshore Oscillating Water Column Systems along the Eastern Coast of New England, United States
Aleks Siemenn, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and M. O. Fortier
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
12.4
Daytime Clear-Sky Radiative Cooling Potential Map of the Contiguous United States
Mengying Li, Univ. of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA; and C. F. M. Coimbra

2:30 PM
12.5
Weather Powering Our Future: A Simple, Web-Based Tool for Broadcast Meteorologists to Support Discussion on the Local Potential of Wind and Solar Energy
Bernadette Woods Placky, Climate Central, Princeton, NJ; and C. Chu, J. Brady, and E. D. Larson
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
12.6
Automated Detection and Estimation of Methane Emissions at Site and Regional Scales Based on Lidar Sparse Tomographic Data
T. Scott Zaccheo, AER, Lexington, MA; and T. G. Pernini, J. T. Dobler, and N. Blume
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019


PM Coffee Break (Thurs)
Location: Meeting room foyers (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

5:00 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019


99th AMS Annual Meeting Adjourns
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