Climatology of Wind Energy Variability for the Kuwait Region

System operators for wind energy production depend upon accurate wind forecasts from 15 minutes to 6 hours to prepare for rapid changes in wind speed, which cause sudden increases or decreases in power production. The Shagaya wind farm in Kuwait can be subject to such wind variability, caused by synoptic systems, storm fronts, or dust storms. Assessing the weather regimes in Kuwait and the corresponding wind variability will help wind power forecasters more accurately predict rapid changes in power production. This study uses Meteorological Terminal Aviation Routine Weather Report (METAR) observations and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model output for the Middle East region to determine weather regimes that impact wind variability. We perform seasonal and short-term analyses to determine the frequency, timing and potential causes of significant changes in wind speed in the region. Additionally, we analyze potential wind ramp events, defined as a substantial change in wind speed or wind power in an hour. These wind ramp events are identified for wind turbines and weather stations at the Shagaya wind farm and for METAR sites in the region. Further analysis identifies how closely the WRF model predicts the observed weather regimes and wind variability, including wind ramp events. From this observational and model analysis, a climatology of wind variability regimes and wind ramp events is created for the Shagaya wind farm to improve future wind nowcasting for the site.