Hurricane Michael: Messaging an Unprecedented Event for the Florida Panhandle and Beyond

Hurricane Michael was an unprecedented event for the Florida Panhandle, as it became the first category four hurricane to make landfall in the region since reliable records began in 1851. In addition, with a central pressure of 919 millibars, Michael had the third lowest landfall pressure in U.S. history, behind only the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane and Hurricane Camille (1969). It is also one of two landfalling Category 4 hurricanes in Florida in October, with the other being Hurricane King (1950), and the second most intense landfalling October hurricane behind the 1924 Cuba Hurricane. Though Michael will be remembered for these records and the vast devastation across northern Florida and southern Georgia, the rapid evolution of this hurricane in the days leading up to landfall posed a unique messaging challenge for the meteorological community.

Prior to Michael, three previous hurricanes provided the benchmark for residents across the Florida Panhandle: Dennis (2005), Opal (1995), and Eloise (1975). It is likely that some residents made plans to ride Michael out based on the results of these past storms, along with a forecast that did not initially indicate a major hurricane landfall. Older building infrastructure along with a quickly evolving forecast as Michael underwent rapid intensification made residents who stayed extremely vulnerable to impacts. As a result, by the evening of October 9th, the National Weather Service Office in Tallahassee exhausted its resources in an attempt to encourage anyone who stayed to evacuate. The use of social media was paramount in these efforts, as well as the utilization of deployed meteorologists in Bay and Leon County, Florida. Personalized briefings by deployed meteorologists influenced the use of WEA alerts by these counties, escalating messaging efforts in the hours leading up to the onset of impacts. At this time, it remains too early to know the true scale of the influence of these efforts. This presentation will outline the challenges posed by Hurricane Michael, as well as past hurricane history and the area infrastructure, as well as the communication methods used to escalate messaging leading up to and during the storm.