The Saffir–Simpson Scale: Simple, Straightforward, and Insufficient

Is the Saffir-Simpson Scale really the best way to communicate hurricane hazards to the public? It certainly serves its original purpose of forecasting structural damage imposed by hurricane winds, but historical and more recent storms have proven the cunning complexity of a hurricane. Wind is only one component of these massive, powerful, and devastating disasters. Measuring a storm by one single parameter to communicate to the public is misleading. As Hurricane Harvey (2017) and Hurricane Florence (2018) approached landfall, many mainstream media outlets used headlines reporting the storm had “downgraded” or “weakened”. In terms of wind, this was certainly true, but it inadvertently delivered a false sense of relief to the public. If rain and storm surge are a hurricane’s most destructive features, why use only wind to describe it?

Additionally, a six-week-span of the 2018 hurricane season witnessed five hurricanes undergo rapid intensification. This pattern suggests an increasing rate of intensification in today’s storms. Hurricane Florence increased 55 mph in 24 hours over the open Atlantic. Hurricane Michael (2018) repeated similar behavior, except it occurred right before landfall, proving to be catastrophic. While intensity forecasting is difficult and highly sought after, it still must be communicated to coastal communities appropriately.

This review surveys alternative warning systems for broadcasting that incorporate more than just a hurricane’s wind speed. It also emphasizes the importance of increasing the public’s scientific literacy.