Climate-Induced Displacement: Where Social and Climate Sciences Intersect

This paper considers the impacts of climate change on the displacement of human populations along with the legal instruments that will be needed. In 1990 the IPCC warned that “the gravest effects of climate change would likely be on human migration, with millions of people uprooted by shoreline erosion, coastal flooding, and agricultural disruption”. Reams of recent science papers and news articles speak about lands becoming uninhabitable in the future--in the case of atolls, by 2030. People may relocate because their homeland loses territory to sea level rise, or becomes unlivable due to climate-related disasters, or becomes too hot. For the last 20 years or so, according to the UNFCCC Warsaw International Mechanism Taskforce on Displacement Activities III.1-3: "Climate and weather-related disasters regularly account for most (86%) of the global total with almost 196 million displacements recorded." Chapter 12 of the 2014 IPCC report describes how climate change and migration are related, theorizing that many millions more climate-induced displacements should be expected. It also states that “highly confident statements about the influence of climate change on human security are not possible.”

Population migration is often multi-factorial: climate events may amplify existing political unrest or economic instability as drivers that lead people to resettle, either elsewhere in their own country, or across international boundaries to another country. Causality of displacement is difficult to ascertain. Moreover, there is also a problem with attribution. While there is little doubt that climate-induced displacement will continue to grow, there are significant difficulties in developing legal rights and protections for displaced persons. Given this legal void for climate-displaced persons, novel processes within the UNFCC are ongoing (such as the Warsaw Mechanism on Loss and Damage).

While the role of policy-makers is to develop creative legal solutions, the role of the climatologists is to help them better understand the underlying climate science, to help inform policy makers by explaining climate events, both slow onset and extreme events, and how these events relate to climate change

A group of key climate scientists, international environmental attorneys, and those who write the legal instruments on climate induced displacement joined together in workshops that explored complex environmental and socioeconomic factors that lead to population displacement. Topics included key drivers of climate-induced displacement, the role of climate information in the legal and policy frameworks, experiences with displaced communities, and data tools, such as the Climate Resilience Toolkit, as well as reports and assessments, and perspectives on future global climate change around the limits of habitability.

This presentation summarizes recent workshop findings, challenges and opportunities for further research, and next steps on building the interdisciplinary connections between the science and the legal frameworks surrounding climate induced displacement.