Improving Early Warning Capabilities for Security-Related Disruptive Extreme Events

Evidence that extreme water and weather events pose critical security risks to the U.S. homeland, national security, and global stability has been mounting in recent years. Such events include sudden, high impact incidents, such as hurricanes or heatwaves, and slow onset events with persistent impacts, such as drought. While there is increasing agreement in research regarding links between climate and conflict, the connection is complex. Researchers and practitioners are still grappling with how to ascertain specific drivers in ways that inform deliberate action. Challenges exist in designing integrated research. To address these gaps multi-agency partners engaged in research on weather and water extremes and security to develop an evidence-based framework for anticipating and proactively managing these water-related risks, disruptions and crises. The framework, discussed in this presentation, is initially being developed from three key areas of concern – South Asia, the Horn of Africa, and the Caribbean – to identify security tipping points associated with extremes, resources and instability. Tipping points for security in South Asia are severe flooding and droughts, boundary disputes, and political instability. Critical concerns in the Horn of Africa include the presence of violent extremist organizations, food insecurity, rapidly changing demography, and unstable governance. The Caribbean experiences severe droughts and storms, migration pressures, dependence on external markets, and limited capabilities to provide relief for severe events. The studies, outlined in this presentation, serve to analyze and condense these scenarios into compelling narratives, and importantly, connect key decision support networks and partnerships. Key recommendations include 1) ensuring research priorities are directly informed by national security needs and critical entry points as articulated by Combatant Commands (CoCOMS) and related national security decision makers; 2) developing mechanisms for improving and sustaining inter-agency coordination through institutional and product mapping, and civilian capability for forecasting of earth system extremes and rapid transitions across timescales; and 3) adapting these lessons to operational environments and other strategic global hot spots.