A Review of NCEP Model Guidance for Hurricanes Florence and Michael

Hurricanes Florence and Michael caused major impacts in the eastern and southern United States in the fall of 2018. This presentation will review numerical weather prediction guidance for each storm, focusing on forecasts of track, intensity, and rainfall. Statistical and subjective reviews of global, mesoscale, and hurricane models will be presented, with emphasis on global ensembles at longer time ranges and mesoscale and hurricane models at short time ranges. In addition, with the FV3-GFS global model likely to replace the operational GFS model around the time of this conference, extra attention will be given to forecasts from that system. This presentation will also emphasize the model forecast challenges involving the extreme rainfall that fell from Florence over the Carolinas and the rapid intensification of Michael that occurred during its approach towards the Gulf coast.