Evaluate and Improve the Usage of Arctic Observation for Weather and Extended Range Forecasts Using OSEs and OSSEs with NGGPS: Preparation for YOPP and beyond

Arctic ice has declined during the last decade, and possibly related unprecedented abnormal midlatitude weather has been reported. There is evidence a more complete that Arctic observing system will improve tropical cyclone track forecast in midlatitude. Arctic observations require urgent research efforts for effective planning to prevent or mitigate potentially large societal and economic losses.

In this project effective observation system in the Arctic region to improve Arctic and midlatitude extended-range forecasts will be investigated using Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE). Global and Regional OSSE, and theoretical prediction can provide complementary information about requirements for future Arctic observing systems. First, OSSE with global coverage will be conducted at relatively low resolution and resolution will then be varied to evaluate how the observation impact depends on the model resolution and various configurations. The impact of higher resolution will be investigated with regional OSSEs with advanced physics over the Arctic.

Simulated experiments with idealized observations will be conducted in the initial stage. Idealized observations are designed based on distribution of planned potential observing systems without current technical limitations.

The task will be accomplished by making the best use of the recently developed US operational weather forecast system including Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS). The Nature Run is simulated ‘truth’ for the OSSE. For this project new Nature Run produced by ECMWF with reduced Arctic Ice will be used.