Social Scientific Research and Transition Activities for Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI)

Since 2015, as part of the Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) initiative, a new technology known as Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI) has been incorporated into experiments with end-users in the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT). PHI are plumes of hazard probabilities that extend ahead of a storm, offering the probability that a particular severe hazard (e.g., tornadoes, hail/wind, or lightning) will occur over the next hour. In addition to HWT work, some controlled experimental studies have been conducted with the public related to PHI concepts since 2013. This presentation will summarize findings from these efforts, update the community on progress to consider needs for transitioning the technology, and highlight emerging research questions based on the first few years of work. The authors welcome comments, questions and suggestions from audience members about work that can be undertaken to successfully transition PHI to operations in the long run.