The Four’easter: Storm Fatigue and Decision-Making

Dubbed the “four’easter”, the I-95 corridor from Maryland into southern Maine experienced a generational event as a series of four nor’easters impacted the area in the month of March. Although nor’easters are not uncommon in the region, according to the Weather Prediction Center, four within a 3-4 week time frame had not occurred since over 30 years ago from December 30, 1986 through January 26, 1987. The storms resulted in significant interference with commerce and transportation as moderate to wet snow, moderate to major coastal flooding, and strong winds impacted the heavily populated corridor.

Storm fatigue and event warning fatigue have been well documented in association with hurricanes and severe storms. In addition to physiological stressors, repeated warnings can increase the perception of false alarms, lead to feelings of helplessness and skepticism, and impact the incentive to take action. Despite over 2500 combined hours of impact-based decision support services by the impacted National Weather Service offices during the four major storms, feedback received verbally and through written methods such as newsprint and social media indicated storm fatigue became a factor in decision making by the fourth storm.

Although communication with partner agencies has vastly improved in recent years, messaging challenges still remain, particularly with the general public. The author will provide an overview of the four nor’easters, and explore how each experience altered the expectation for the next storm(s). Preliminary considerations and suggestions for improvement will be provided, in order to aid in future messaging efforts and ideally help those impacted maintain a sense of awareness and understanding with each subsequent storm.