An Analysis of Thunderstorm Intensity Trends in the Mississippi Delta Region

Abstract: An abrupt change in land cover and land use occurs from west to east across northern LA and southern AR, transitioning from heavily forested, rolling hills west of Monroe, LA to the flat, Mississippi River Delta to the east. Subjective observations have noted an overall decrease in thunderstorm intensity or areal coverage in this region, as the storms move from west to east. One study also suggests a relative minimum in convective activity east of Monroe as you move into the river delta (Fabry et al. 2017). It is hypothesized the sharp land cover transition, and gradual descent in the river valley, provide mesoscale descent and other mesoscale circulations which suppresses convection.

This project focuses on analyzing the intensity evolution of thunderstorms as they move from west to east into the Mississippi River Delta. Radar data from the WSR-88D in Shreveport, LA is used to examine the evolution of convective echoes. Convective events were narrowed down by using the Storm Prediction Center’s severe storm database and radar data were analyzed in the Gibson Ridge Level2 Analyst program.