U.S. Operational Numerical Weather Prediction: Why Is Research to Operations Not Working Well?

Objective skill scores suggest that U.S. operational numerical weather prediction has fallen behind several major international operational centers, as well as behind the state-of-the-science. This is particularly noteworthy, considering that the U.S. atmospheric research enterprise is the largest and most advanced in the world. This presentation will outline the ineffective research to operations pipeline in the U.S. and will describe the origins of the problem. The paper will end with a suggestion of how R to O could be greatly improved in the U.S., with restructuring of NOAA NWP research and operations being a central element.