Impact-Based Forecasting and Assessment in the Caribbean

The Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are exposed to a range of hazards including but not limited to earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, flooding, drought, tsunamis and hurricanes. Hydro-meteorological and climate related hazards are the most prevalent with their intensity expected to increase under global climate change scenarios. Through funding by USAID, the COMET IEPAS Program is currently working with the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), the Barbados Meteorological Service (BMS), the Barbados Department of Emergency Management (DEM) and other partners to pilot a demonstration project in the Caribbean entitled Weather and Climate Ready Nations (WCRN). The immediate goal is to integrate impact-based forecasting within the standard operational procedures of the BMS through the development and provision of user-based hazard, impact and response matrices for rain, flood, tsunami, convective rainfall and wind hazards. A complimentary effort, funded by the Caribbean Development Bank, aims to provide a workflow for risk-based forecasting through the quantification of the expected economic impact. To achieve this, the CIMH is currently working with the CIMA Foundation, Savona, Italy to implement the Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation of Risk (RASOR) Platform in the Caribbean in part through a pilot flood risk application in Barbados. The incorporation of impact related geospatial data and visualization within a Virtual Reality (VR) platform developed through the internal research and development programme at the CIMH provides an immersive experience for forecasters and other decision makers who may be unfamiliar with the terrain and the relative location of exposed assets while also supporting post-impact assessments. The CIMH is working with partners to streamline these efforts within operational workflows to ensure the efficiency and sustainability of the impact-based forecasting and assessment process in the Caribbean.