Impact-Based Forecasting and Warning: Weather Ready Nations in Central America

High-impact hydrometeorological events, in particular, flash floods, floods, landslides and droughts cause fatalities and significant damage to property and infrastructure. In order to significantly reduce losses, economies need to become more weather and climate resilient through incorporating weather and climate information in decision making processes for timely actions. Many National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) are working to advance Multi-hazard Impact-based Forecast and Warning Services approach to reduce loss of lives and economic impacts of these hydrometeorological hazards. In the United States with the development of the Weather Ready Nation program and in Europe and the United Kingdom in the development of the Impact based Decision Support Services are examples illustrating the benefits of implementing these approaches.

Currently, El Salvador, Costa Rica and Guatemala in partnership with the U.S. National Weather Service-International Affairs Office, the U.S. Agency for International Development/Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research and the Hydrologic Research Center, have been implementing a program modeled after U.S. WRN to develop Weather Ready Nations (WRNs) projects in the Central America region. The Central America WRNs program is a multi-hazard impact based forecasting and early warning approach to develop capacity at NMHS and National Disaster Management Agencies (NDMAs).

The WRNs program goals are to improve impact based forecasting and warning services for severe hydrometeorological events through providing, accurate and timely warnings that are easily understood acted upon by users at local levels. This enhanced capability provides users with a clearer forecast and warning message of the What, Where, and When for a specific hazard along with appropriate actions to avoid losses. Once implemented, the NMHS effectively communicate expected impacts such that NDMAs, communities and individuals may assess risk and make decisions in time to take appropriate actions that minimize loss of life and property.

The implementation of this program in the region has led NMHSs to go beyond producing accurate forecasts and timely warnings to better understanding and anticipating the likely human and economic impacts of such events and communicating those impacts. The forecast is combined with vulnerability and exposure information developed usually by NDMAs to rapidly identify social, economic and environmental risk at a specific location.

Specifically, the Central America program addresses strengthening the regions resilience against extreme weather events through:

• Producing reliable and specific forecasts that integrate vulnerability and exposure to weather-related events that impact safety, health, the economy, and environment;

• Improving NMHS ‘s ability for service delivery to support decision-making in relevant sectors,
• Supporting close collaboration NMHS and NDMAs
• Improving understanding of socioeconomic impacts and providing specific and relevant warnings which enables early action; and,

• Engaging with sectors that are responsible for public safety and security; disaster managers, transportation and public health officials, water resource managers, natural resource managers and other stakeholders.