Evolution of Weather Forecasting—A Retrospective Look by a Retired Operational Meteorologist

Age often leads to reflection, which constitutes the impetus for this presentation. Weather forecasting has improved dramatically by any measure. This presentation provides a brief overview of the evolution of weather forecasting with a focus on the author’s witness of that evolution during his 45 year career as an operational meteorologist (43 with the National Weather Service (NWS)). Through the lenses of an operational meteorologist’s experience, some conjecture of where weather forecasting (at least in the public sector) appears to be headed will be made.

Weather forecasting’s origins were humble. In fact, a few centuries ago people equated weather forecasting to witchcraft, and practitioners risked capital punishment in some countries. Examples of weather impacts affecting lives and livelihoods abound throughout history, however, and advances in scientific understanding and technological capabilities led to the viability and value of today’s weather forecasts. Among the hugely important backdrop of various remote sensing and communications technology innovations during the second half of the 20^th century, numerical weather prediction and the NWS Modernization and Restructuring effort stand out in this operational meteorologist’s mind. Significantly, in just the past few decades, meaningful and measurable progress in forecast accuracy and timeliness led to more effective response by emergency managers and a plethora of other key public decision-makers. A few examples from the southern New England area include the response to the 2013 versus 1978 Blizzard and Hurricane Bob versus more recent tropical cyclone threats. Greater trust in the reliability of public and private sector forecast information has resulted in a higher dependence by users, an especially noticeable trend observed by the author during the late 20^th century into the 21^st century. A more holistic approach to the NWS mission of saving lives and property has in turn set the stage for the WeatherReady Nation goal, a revitalized level of impact-based decision support services, stronger partnerships across the entire Weather Enterprise, and a surge of interdisciplinary research.

A retrospective look at the evolution of weather forecasting establishes a context for a look at some new initiatives. Promising enhancements to weather forecast and warning products and services include application of storm scale modeling supported by denser mesoscale observation networks for more precise and actionable short term projections, advances in science and computer capability for extended forecasts/outlooks, more effective communication of uncertainty and risk to vulnerable populations (including underrepresented groups), a host of interdisciplinary efforts (ecosystem response to weather and climate changes, atmosphere-ocean interaction of various scales, shoreline geomorphology impacts from coastal storms, improvements in public hazard messaging based on social science research, etc.). Finally, history reminds us that there will be significant unforeseen advances in the field well within a generation’s timeframe (e.g. communication of weather information with the advent of the internet and social media).