Convection-Allowing Modeling Status and Progress at EMC

The recent adaptation of the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) dynamical core as the basis for NOAA’s next generation global prediction system (NGGPS) has provided the opportunity to unify the global and regional prediction systems under the same dynamical core. This also presents an opportunity to simplify the production suite, as EMC currently maintains several convection-allowing systems underpinned by two distinct dynamical cores, e.g. the NAM and its nests, the HRRR, and several HiRes Window systems.

Current convection-allowing efforts focus on 1.) developing a stand-alone regional FV3 capability that is capable of integrating without the need of a simultaneously running global parent domain, 2.) developing a data assimilation capability at the convective-scale, 3.) developing and testing model physics for convection-allowing applications, and 4.) advancing post-processing and verification efforts at the convective-scale. Each of the aforementioned efforts encompasses opportunities for significant advancement and depends upon healthy collaboration with labs, university partners, and the broader community.

This presentation will focus on recent progress with real-time, daily FV3-based convection-allowing simulations along with a discussion of the long term trajectory of the regional components of the NCEP production suite.