Global and Regional-Scale Models: Updates and Center Overviews

Program Chairs: Robert Banks ; Nusrat Yussouf , CIMMS/OU/NSSL

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Wednesday, 9 January 2019

Wednesday | Thursday | top

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 1
Operational Forecast Center Vision Updates. Part I
Location: North 128AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Global and Regional-Scale Models: Updates and Center Overviews
Chairs: Nusrat Yussouf, CIMMS/NOAA/NSSL; Rebecca Adams-Selin, NOAA
8:30 AM
1.1
ECMWF’s Vision and Activities in Earth System Assimilation and Modeling
Florence Rabier, Director General - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, Berkshire, U.K.
Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM
1.2
Met Office Global and Regional Numerical Weather Prediction: Status and Plans
Dale Barker, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
1.3
Environment and Climate Change Canada NWP Systems: Highlights and Future Plans
Natacha B. Bernier, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada

1.4
Leveraging Community Modeling in NOAA to Advance Operational Weather Prediction

9:45 AM
1.5
U.S. Air Force Global Weather Modeling: Status Update and Future Vision
Michael Farrar, U.S. Air Force (USAF), Washington, DC
Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


AM Coffee Break (Wed)
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 2
Global Model Development Updates
Location: North 128AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Global and Regional-Scale Models: Updates and Center Overviews
Chairs: Natacha B. Bernier, Environment and Climate Change Canada; Clark Evans, Univ. of Wisconsin–Milwaukee
10:30 AM
2.1
Update on the U.S. Navy’s Earth System Prediction Capability Effort
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and N. P. Barton, C. Bishop, M. K. Flatau, S. Frolov, M. A. Janiga, J. G. McLay, J. A. Ridout, B. Ruston, D. P. Eleuterio, P. Hogan, G. Jacobs, E. J. Metzger, E. Rogers, C. D. Rowley, and J. G. Richman
Recorded Presentation

2.2
Overview of Global Modeling Development Activities at ESRL/GSD

2.3
The Official Evaluation of the FV3GFS

11:15 AM
2.4
The Navy’s Next-Generation NEPTUNE Modeling System
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and P. A. Reinecke, K. C. Viner, D. D. Flagg, S. Gabersek, M. Martini, J. Michalakes, D. R. Ryglicki, and F. X. Giraldo
Recorded Presentation

Handout (3.3 MB)

2.5A
Wind Development and Use in the NCEP GFS Data Assimilation System

Paper 2.5 is now Poster 1106

2.6
NEMSfv3gfs: Adopting FV3 to NCEP NEMS System

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Lunch Break (Wed)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Session 3
CANCELLED: Operational Forecast Center Vision Updates. Part II
Location: North 128AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Global and Regional-Scale Models: Updates and Center Overviews
Chairs: Bruce Telfeyan, 557 Weather Wing; Xuguang Wang, Univ. of Oklahoma
3.1
The Weather Prediction Center: A Bridge between NWP and Decision-Makers

3.2
The NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center: Future Operations Vision as Enabled by Next-Generation Ensemble Numerical Weather Prediction and Data Assimilation

3.3
A Brief History of and Future Vision for the Use of Model Guidance for National Hurricane Center Forecast Products

3.4
Aviation Weather Center: Current and Future Modeling Needs

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


PM Coffee Break (Wed)
Location: Meeting room foyers (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 4
Common Community Physics Packages Updates
Location: North 128AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Global and Regional-Scale Models: Updates and Center Overviews
Chairs: Justin McLay, NRL; Daniel T. Dawson II, Purdue Univ.
3:00 PM
4.1
Community Infrastructure for Facilitating Improvement and Testing of Physical Parameterizations: The Common Community Physics Package (CCPP)
Dom Heinzeller, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, and Univ. of Colorado/CIRES, and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and G. J. Firl, L. Bernardet, L. Carson, M. Zhang, D. Stark, J. Schramm, L. Xue, J. Dudhia, and D. Gill
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
4.2
Can Different NWP Dynamical Cores Share a Common Physics Package?
Alex Reinecke, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Martini, J. Doyle, and J. Michalakes

3:30 PM
4.3
Regional Weather Modeling for the Paso del Norte Region: A Sensitivity Study for Determining PBL
Suhail Mahmud, Univ. of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX; and N. Karle, R. M. Fitzgerald, W. R. Stockwell, and D. Lu
Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM
4.4
Impact of Physical and Numerical Representation of Ice Cloud Microphysics on the Simulated Ice Clouds and Their Radiative Effects in the E3SM Atmosphere Model
Kai Zhang, PNNL, Richland, WA; and J. Fan, M. Paukert, H. Wan, P. J. Rasch, and X. Liu

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Wed)
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Poster Session
Posters
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Global and Regional-Scale Models: Updates and Center Overviews
Poster 1099 has moved. New Paper Number is 2.5A.

1100
Physics Parameter Optimization in a Setting with Multiple Response Functions
Justin G. McLay, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. King

1101
Including a Cold Pool Representation in a Convection Parameterization and Simulating Its Impacts on the Spatial and Temporal Variability of the Precipitation in the NASA GEOS-5 GCM
Saulo R. Freitas, Universities Space Research Association, Greenbelt, MD; and G. Grell, N. P. Arnold, and W. M. Putman

1102
NEMS Mediator: Current Status and Ongoing Development
Bin Li, I.M. Systems Group at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and T. Craig, G. Theurich, R. Oehmke, F. Liu, P. Tripp, X. Wu, J. Wang, J. Meixner, J. Wang, D. Worthen, A. Chawla, M. D. Iredell, and C. DeLuca

1103
A Newly Developed APCC SCoPS and Its Prediction of East Asia Seasonal Climate Variability
Suryun Ham, APEC Climate Center, Busan, Korea, Republic of (South)

1104
Processes associated with Convection Initiation in the North American Mesoscale Forecast System, Version 3 (NAMv3)
Michael Colbert, NWS, State College, PA; and D. J. Stensrud, P. Markowski, and Y. Richardson

1105
Use of MET+ and Bukovsky Regions for Grid-to-Observations Verification for the GFS

1106
Updates to the Global Wave Forecast System at NCEP: Impacts of Surface Ocean Currents, Objective Physics Optimization, High-Resolution Spatial Grids, and Coupling to the Global Forecast System

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


Awards Banquet Reception
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 9 January 2019


99th AMS Awards Banquet
Location: North Ballroom (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Thursday, 10 January 2019

Wednesday | Thursday | top

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 5
Data Assimilation Updates
Location: North 128AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Global and Regional-Scale Models: Updates and Center Overviews
Chairs: Therese Ladwig, NOAA/ESRL/GSD; Ryan A. Sobash, NCAR
8:30 AM
5.1
Overview and Update on the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI)
Yannick Trémolet, Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation, Boulder, CO
Recorded Presentation

5.2
Data Assimilation Planning and Development for Global and High-Resolution Regional Numerical Weather Prediction at NCEP/EMC

5.3
Data Assimilation Development for the Proposed 2020 Operational FV3-Based Global Forecast System (GFS)

9:15 AM
5.4
An Update of the Recent Development of the Hybrid EnVar Data Assimilation and Convection-Allowing Ensemble System Design to Improve the Operational Hazardous Weather Forecast over the Continental United States
Xuguang Wang, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and Y. Wang, A. Johnson, and N. A. Gasperoni
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 10 January 2019


Exhibit Hall Breakfast
Location: Hall 5-6 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 6
Regional Model Development Updates
Location: North 128AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Global and Regional-Scale Models: Updates and Center Overviews
Chairs: Alicia M. Bentley, NOAA/NWS/EMC; Alexander O. Tardy
6.1
Overview of Regional Modeling Development at NOAA/ESRL/GSD

6.2
Convection-Allowing Modeling Status and Progress at EMC

11:00 AM
6.3
Development on Movable Nest in FV3GFS
Xuejin Zhang, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and A. Hazelton, Z. Liang, L. M. Harris, T. Black, S. J. Lin, S. Gopalakrishnan, A. Mehra, and F. D. Marks Jr.
Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM
6.4
Fire Weather Products in the National Blend of Models v3.1
Carly Buxton, AceInfo Solutions, Silver Spring, MD; and R. Heffernan, D. T. Van Cleave, H. Hockenberry, D. E. Rudack, and R. S. James
Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.1 MB)

11:30 AM
6.5
Private Observations Improve MET Norway’s Operational Weather Forecasts
Thomas Nipen, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway; and I. A. Seierstad, C. Lussana, and J. Kristiansen
Recorded Presentation

Handout (6.5 MB)

11:45 AM
6.6
Calibration of ECMWF Precipitation Forecasts in a Dual-Resolution Ensemble
Estíbaliz Gascon, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom; and D. A. Lavers, D. S. Richardson, T. M. Hamill, M. Leutbecher, Z. B. Bouallegue, T. Jurlina, C. Prudhomme, and F. Pappenberger
Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019


Lunch Break (Thurs)

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 7
Ensemble Development Updates
Location: North 128AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Global and Regional-Scale Models: Updates and Center Overviews
Chairs: Robert Banks, Delta Airlines, Inc.; Heather Reeves, CIMMS/OU/NSSL
1:30 PM
7.1
The Development of the Next-Generation NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)
Yuejian Zhu, NCEP, College Park, MD; and X. Zhou and D. Hou

7.2
The Design of NCEP GEFS Reforecasts to Support Subseasonal and Hydrometeorological Applications

2:00 PM
7.3
Performance of the 2018 Real-Time HWRF-Based Ensemble Prediction System
Zhan Zhang, I.M. Systems Group at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and W. Wang, L. Zhu, B. Liu, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada

2:15 PM
7.4
A New Operational Global Ensemble from the U.S. Air Force
Evan Kuchera, USAF 16th Weather Squadron, Offutt Air Force Base, NE; and G. Creighton, J. Martinelli, S. Rentschler, and R. J. Craig
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
7.5
Model Error Representation in the Canadian Regional Ensemble Prediction System
Leo Separovic, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada; and A. Zadra, M. Charron, N. Gagnon, S. Corvec, R. McTaggart-Cowan, and P. A. Vaillancourt
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
7.6
The MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System for Nordic Weather Conditions
Jørn Kristiansen, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway; and U. Andae, H. Körnich, S. Niemelä, M. Partio, and O. Vignes
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019


PM Coffee Break (Thurs)
Location: Meeting room foyers (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019

Recording files available
Session 8
Postprocessing and Verification Updates
Location: North 128AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Global and Regional-Scale Models: Updates and Center Overviews
Chairs: Louisa Nance, NCAR and Developmental Testbed Center; Geoffrey Manikin, NOAA/NWS/EMC
3:30 PM
8.1
The Use of the METplus Verification Capability in Both Operations and Research Organizations
Tara Jensen, NCAR and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and J. Halley Gotway, J. J. Levit, M. P. Row, B. Strong, A. J. Clark, J. A. Nelson Jr., M. Marquis, and I. Stajner

3:45 PM
8.2
New Developments in Forecast Verification at ECMWF
Thomas Haiden, ECMWF, Reading, UK; and Z. B. Bouallegue, L. Magnusson, and F. Rabier
Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM
8.3
Recent Trends in Skill for Some Leading Global NWP Centers
Ross N. Hoffman, NOAA/OAR/AOML, Miami, FL; and K. Kumar, S. A. Boukabara, K. Ide, F. Yang, and R. Atlas
Recorded Presentation

Handout (996.2 kB)

4:15 PM
8.4
Using Containers to Help Foster Collaboration for Model Development and Testing of the Finite-Volume Cube Sphere Dynamical Core (FV3) Model
Jebb Q. Stewart, NOAA, Boulder, CO
Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM
8.5
Progress Toward the Development and Evaluation of a State-of-the-Art Nonhydrostatic Regional Climate Model for Studying Lake–Atmosphere Interactions: Focus on Simulating Lake-Effect Snowstorms in the Great Lakes Basin
Michael Notaro, Univ. of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI; and C. Cruz, E. M. Kemp, D. A. R. Kristovich, M. S. Kulie, C. D. Peters-Lidard, S. J. Vavrus, J. Wang, and Y. Zhong
Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM
8.6
Preliminary Analysis for the East Asia Region Reanalysis (EARR) in 2015
Jianjun Xu, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang, China; and Y. Zhang and Q. Huang
Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 10 January 2019


99th AMS Annual Meeting Adjourns
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