Extending Tropical Cyclone Formation Outlook Forecasts

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is a Department of Defense (DoD) tropical cyclone (TC) prediction center that is responsible for TC warnings in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Forecasters at JTWC are currently developing a long range TC formation outlook that would benefit the DoD by providing more warning to those who rely on JTWC forecasts. The current method of predicting TC formation classifies the probability of occurrence for a 48 hour period. The goal of this research is to extend skillful formation outlooks from 48 hours to as much as 2 weeks. The 48 hour outlook methodology uses eight parameters derived from satellite and model output. This research seeks to determine how far beyond 48 hours a selection of these parameters can skillfully indicate the probability of TC formation.