Evaluation of Real-Time Forecast Performance of the Health-Impact-Oriented Global Subseasonal Excessive Heat Outlook System during Summer 2018

A health-impact oriented global subseasonal excessive heat outlook system (GSEHOS) has been developed at the University of Maryland. The GSEHOS provides experimental daily real-time forecasts for Week-2 and Week-3 since 20 May 2018 which inform outlooks that are disseminated bi-weekly to a global multi-disciplinary audience. The GSEHOS uses the 16-member ensemble forecast produced daily by NOAA’s Climate Forecast System to calculate thermal discomfort as formulated by the Excess Heat Factor (EHF). In this paper I discuss the EHF as measure of thermal discomfort, the post-processing of raw CFS forecast data, output produced by the GSEHOS, and verify forecasts of excessive heat events that occurred in the Northern Hemisphere during the summer of 2018. The paper concludes with current research and development efforts, and remarks on the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration for developing the next generation operational health-impact oriented GSEHOS.