Investigating Hurricane Storm Surge Predictability using ADCIRC and SLOSH

Storm surge is the excess water above the normal tide. It is caused by hurricanes and is also the deadliest part of these storms. Current models can only predict storm surge up to 48 hours prior to the storm making landfall. However, this is not enough time for emergency management to establish an evacuation decision. To better analyze this phenomena, this study modeled hurricane Irma using the operational model used by the National Weather Service, the Sea, Land, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, and compared the results to those of a more detailed model, the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model. Best track data obtained from the National Hurricane Center FTP site was downloaded and converted into a track file for SLOSH. The track file was then manipulated to change storm characteristics such as storm size (radius of maximum winds or RMW), speed, and location, among others.