Developing Multiseasonal Analogs for Top Washington, D.C., Area Windstorms

On 2-3 March 2018, a historic wind storm struck the Washington D.C. to Baltimore metropolitan area, resulting in widespread tree damage and structural damage to power grids. For several days after the event, hundreds of thousands of Baltimore Gas and Electric customers were without electricity as crews worked around the clock conducting repairs. A climatological analysis of Earth Networks and NWS METAR stations in the BG&E service territory reveals that the 2-3 March 2018 event rivals only the worst storms to impact the region in the last 30 years, including Sandy in October 2012, Irene in 2011, Isabel in 2003 and the March 1993 Superstorm. As operational meteorologists look further and further into the distance in coming years, extreme event identification and forecast threat communication are paramount skills to master. In this study, we examine forecast ingredients leading up to the 2-3 March 2018 event and look at the benefits of developing sound multi-seasonal analogs to serve as solid anchors for communicating wind damage potential in the region.