Study on Emission Trends and Impacts of BVOCs Driven by Future Climate Change

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on climate change predicts that the temperature and precipitation in the future will change with changes in emissions scenarios in global scales. The research shows that the emission of natural sources is largely determined by climatic factors, and the background of natural source emissions should be considered in the formulation of anthropogenic emission control policies. As a precursor of ozone and SOA (Secondary Organic Aerosols), VOCs (Volatile Organic Compounds) is the focus of research.

In this study, using 2017 as the base year, using the meteorological data from NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) for the research, the study simulates by means of WRF, MEGAN, CMAQ three model system, gets the estimation around China area in 2017, 2030 and 2050 of BVOCs (natural source VOC) emissions, and analyzes its influence on the concentration changes of ozone and SOA.

The simulation results show changes in temperature, humidity and solar radiation in the base year and future years. The results of BVOCs emission estimation show that the seasonal changes in 2017 and 2030 are consistent, while in 2030, the total emission is decreased slightly, the peak value is lower in summer. The study will simulate the total monthly emissions of BVOCs such as isoprene and monoterpenes in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region and the Yangtze River Delta region, the Pearl River Delta region, Sichuan Chongqing region and central China.

The emission of BVOCs has a key effect on the ozone concentration. Ozone concentration mean value in the first week of July 2030 when considering BVOCs emission scenarios is 38.60 ppbv, which increases by 15.68% when compared with the same time without considering BVOCs emission scenarios. Under the driving force of climate change in the future, the temperature and radiation in 2030 and 2050 will change significantly, which leads to the change of BVOCs emission, and further promotes the change of ozone and SOA concentrations.