Exploration of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Using Hurricane GPROF and Impacts on Statistical-Dynamical Intensity Models

Rapid intensity change remains a critical issue in the analysis and forecast of tropical cyclone intensity. An important component of intensity prediction that current forecast techniques struggle to accurately represent is TC inner-core processes. To explore ways of addressing this gap, we seek to better represent TC convective structure in statistical-dynamical intensity models, particularly rapid intensification guidance. We updated a TC-specific passive microwave retrieval, Hurricane GPROF (Goddard PROFiling algorithm), to provide rain rates, hydrometeor profiles, and latent heat profiles, from the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI). Predictors for statistical-dynamical intensity techniques are then developed from TC overpasses and tested in rapid intensification guidance. We will present the examination of these predictors over the developmental sample and the results of including Hurricane GPROF in operational statistical-dynamical rapid intensification guidance.

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