Intraseasonal Monsoon Variability during PISTON and MISO-BOB Campaigns

The Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Variability (BSISO) in the Indian Ocean, South China Sea and Western Pacific is investigated for the period associated with the MISO-BoB and PISTON experiments (summer/fall 2018). The forecast with the early version of the Navy model indicate higher forecasts skill in the Indian Ocean where the eastward propagating perturbations dominate the intraseasonal signal compared do the Western Pacific and SCS where westward propagating Rossby wave/TD type disturbances have a large contribution. The Navy Sub-X forecasts as well as other models from the Sub-X project are used to examine intraseasonal variability in these regions using various OLR, wind and precipitation based BSISO indices for each model and in the multi-model ensemble. For the coupled models, the interaction with the ocean and the impact of the SST variability is examined.