Connecting the Needs of Forecasters to Convection Allowing Models

Convection Allowing Models (CAMs) have the ability to reveal many nuances associated with atmospheric processes that are not being fully utilized. These new models are not well understood on a day-to-day forecasting basis. Understanding HOW to make models more useful to forecasters involves understanding what key pieces of information forecasters require.

The NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring experiments, both forecast and warning, have used carefully crafted new model output variables (hourly max updraft helicity, hail size, wind speeds, vorticity) to derive hidden features of the model world. These variables connect directly to the forecast process and thus the forecast products. The variables provide context and meaning when paired with a model climatology and/or verification dataset.

This talk will review recent work on using CAMs in experimental forecasts and warnings products. We will highlight existing severe weather variables and potential new variables (fire weather, Quantitative Precipitation Forecast or QPF, etc.) that might make model information more relevant to forecasters’ needs and thus make model information more useful and usable. This process is similar to practitioners cycles, a software development cycle that should be iterated with researchers and forecasters working together to build requirements AND desirements. Then and only then can we efficiently use Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) to empower forecasters with these next generation tools.