Improvements and Challenges in High-Impact Weather Prediction

Numerical weather prediction model forecasts of high-impact weather have demonstrated dramatic increases in capability over the past decade. Convection-allowing model (CAM) forecasts provided by several countries have shown the ability to predict explicitly a wide variety of high-impact weather events, including supercell thunderstorms, derechos, and heavy rainfall. Yet challenges remain, especially with respect to the prediction of convection initiation. Improvements and successes in numerical prediction of high-impact weather will be highlighted; new observations that could provide improved initial conditions and enhanced verification will be shown; and challenges surveyed.