Evaluating forecasts for Indian Summer Monsoon precipitation using the Navy Earth System Model

Accurate seasonal forecasts rely heavily on the prediction of precipitation amounts. This is especially true for the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) which, accounts for the majority of India’s annual rainfall and drives the nation’s agricultural industry. The Navy Earth System Model (NESM) is an air-sea coupled model using the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) and Global Ocean Forecast System (GOFS). NESM model forecasts are compared to the observed precipitation over the region. Verification for ISM seasonal rainfall amounts is performed through graphical comparison and standard statistical relationships. The results will be explored for three summers.