Forecasting Lightning Initiation Using Dual-Polarization Radar and Lightning Mapping Array in Southwest Utah

Lightning initiation forecasts are a significant challenge faced by meteorologists, and pose a hazard to space launches, aviation, and public safety. Launch operations are particularly sensitive to lightning, and require the utmost accuracy in the forecast timing of their initiation. The Air Force's 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), based at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), Florida, is responsible for ensuring the safe access to space through America's primary spaceport. Lightning is the primary cause for weather-related launch cancellations and delays, making it arguably the most important type of weather forecast at CCAFS. A lightning initiation forecast method utilizing dual-polarization radar was developed by the Air Force Institute of Technology in Travis (2015) for the 45 WS. This method is tested in southwest Utah, in order to test its robustness and effectiveness in a climate different than central Florida. This is accomplished by applying the highest-performing radar metrics, reflectivity (Z) ≥ 36.5 dBZ with differential reflectivity (Z_DR) ≥ 0.31 dB at the -10°C level, to the new region against an identical multi-dimensional lightning detection network, the Utah Lightning Mapping Array (LMA). Consistent performance results of this method within the Utah area would demonstrate the statistical significance of these radar parameters, and lend credence to the forecast method. Additionally, these positive results could lead to eventual implementation within the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) network, and improve lightning safety nationwide.