Using NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center Forecasts to Estimate Potential Societal Impacts from Severe Weather

The NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is quantifying potential societal impacts arising as from tornadoes, large hail, and damaging thunderstorm winds as a part of Project IMPACTS (Integrated Machine-based Predictive Analytics for Convective Threats to Society). The IMPACTS system consists of two separate components: a “weather generator” that simulates the number, location, and strength/intensity of the natural hazard (tornado, wind, hail) based on the probabilistic SPC Day 1 Outlook, and a geospatial risk layer, from which the people or infrastructure exposed can be calculated. This modular structure enables mixing and matching of natural hazards and societal vulnerabilities, but as an initial operating capability, IMPACTS uses the SPC Day 1 Tornado Outlook to produce estimates of the number of people exposed to tornadoes.

Using past impactful severe weather events, this presentation will describe the weather generator currently used for tornadoes and demonstrate how this methodology has been modified to extend similar concepts for wind and hail impact estimation. Additionally, this presentation will show examples of how other types of societal impact, including downed trees and damaged powerlines and disruptions to critical infrastructure, are being estimated and then communicated to partners in the emergency management community.