Favorable Synoptic Scale Environment over Eastern Africa for Prediction of Tropical Cyclogenesis

The role of convection and associated potential vorticity (PV) generation have been shown to be significant in the evolution of African Easterly Waves (AEWs); however, how the evolving AEWs lead to tropical cyclogenesis is still unclear. How do the interactions between the synoptic-scale environment and the mesoscale convection (MCSs) modulate the AEW evolution so that one wave is the site of tropical cyclogenesis and another wave does not support genesis? Due to the sensitivity of AEWs to the interactions mentions above, forecasting tropical cyclogenesis is still a challenge. A diabatic PV tendency budget is done using WRF-ARW high-resolution nested simulations that are convective permitting in the innermost domain. This is done to analyze the interaction of the MCSs with the AEW while still preserving the mesoscale evolution. Results between a comparison of the physical evolution based on the PV tendency and total diabatic heating show distinct differences throughout the lifetime of an intense developing AEW and non-developing AEW. These results could support the hypothesis that AEWs undergo tropical cyclogenesis mainly due to the PV generation associated with mesoscale convection.