Joint Session 67 Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability

Program Chairs: Naoko Sakaeda , Univ. of Oklahoma ; Juliana Dias , CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA

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Monday, 13 January 2020

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Recording files available
Session 1
Dynamics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation
Location: 254B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability
Cochairs: Juliana Dias, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA; Alex Omar Gonzalez, Iowa State Univ.
8:30 AM
1.1A
MJO Simulation in CMIP6 Models: How Much Improvement Has Been Made from CMIP5 to CMIP6?
Min-Seop Ahn, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Kim, D. Kang, J. Lee, K. R. Sperber, and P. J. Gleckler
8:45 AM
1.2
A New MJO Theory
J.-E. Kim, Pusan National University, Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); and C. Zhang
9:00 AM
1.3
What Determines the Propagation Speed of the Madden–Julian Oscillation?
Guosen Chen, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; and B. Wang
9:15 AM
1.4
9:30 AM
1.5
Examining the MJO–QBO Relationship in a GCM with a Nudged Stratosphere
Zane K. Martin, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and C. Orbe, S. Wang, and A. H. Sobel
9:45 AM
1.6
The Madden–Julian Oscillation, Wave Energy Accumulation, and the Formation of Intense South Atlantic Convergence Zones
Fernando E. Hirata, Federal University of Parana, Curitiba, Brazil; and V. Toma and P. J. Webster

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 13 January 2020


AM Coffee Break (Monday)
Location: Boston Convention and Exhibition Center

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Recording files available
Session 2
Tropical Waves and Tropical–Extratropical Interactions
Location: 254B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability
Chair: Naoko Sakaeda, Univ. of Oklahoma
10:30 AM
2.1
11:00 AM
2.3
The Role of Moisture in the Convective Coupling of Equatorial Waves
Brandon O. Wolding, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. Dias, G. N. Kiladis, E. Maloney, and M. Branson
11:30 AM
2.5
Tropical Forcing of Euro-Atlantic Weather Regime Transitions: Reanalysis and Predictions
Ralph Getzandanner, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and D. M. Straus

11:45 AM
2.6
Assessing the Influence of Tropical Forecast Errors on Higher-Latitude Predictions Using Nudging Experiments
Juliana Dias, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA, Boulder, CO; and S. N. Tulich, M. Gehne, and G. Kiladis

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Recording files available
Joint Session 7
Convection over the Maritime Continent
Location: 254B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; and the Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium )
Chair: Eric D. Maloney, Colorado State University
2:00 PM
J7.1
Early Observation and Modeling Results from the NASA Cloud, Aerosol, and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2Ex)
D. J. Posselt, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and J. S. Reid, S. van den Heever, J. Mace, L. Di Girolamo, and L. D. Ziemba
2:15 PM
J7.2
Diurnal Forcing and Phase Locking of Gravity Waves in the Maritime Continent
James Ruppert Jr., The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang and X. Chen
2:30 PM
J7.3

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Recording files available
Joint Session 10
Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Variability and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones
Location: 254B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; and the Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium )
Chair: Suzana Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia Univ.
3:00 PM
J10.1
Subseasonal Predictability of a Genesis Potential Index
Rodrigo Bombardi, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and L. Trenary and K. Emanuel
3:15 PM
J10.2
3:30 PM
J10.3A
Tropical Cyclones in Current Seasonal Forecast Models
Daniel J. Befort, Univ. of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; and K. I. Hodges and A. Weisheimer

3:45 PM
J10.4
The Relationship between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification
Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL; and J. Kaplan

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Mon)
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Poster Session 1
Eighth Symposium of the MJO and Subseasonal Monsoon Variability Poster Session
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability
454
Mean State Modulation of MJO Propagation: Role of Background Meridional Moisture Gradient
Daehyun Kang, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Kim and M. S. Ahn

455
Impact of Rossby and Kelvin Wave Components on MJO Eastward Propagation
Lu Wang, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China; and T. Li and T. Nasuno

456
Fast and Slow MJO Modes Modulated by ENSO in Boreal Winter
Hong-Li Ren, Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; and Y. Wei

458
Interactions of Large-Scale Dynamics and Diabatic Heating in Multimodel MJO Simulations
Ashley L. Heath, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and A. O. Gonzalez

460
Role of Air–Sea Interactions in the Intensifying and Decaying of an MJO Event over the North Indian Ocean
Bibhuti Sharan Keshav, Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar, Bhubaneswar, India; and K. Landu

461
Effect of Subseasonal Tropical Oscillations on Extreme Weather over the Indian Subcontinent
Kiranmayi Landu, Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar, Bhubaneswar, India; and T. Zore and A. Subudhi

462
Modulations of the Diurnal Cycle of Coastal Rainfall over South China Caused by the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation
Xingchao Chen, The Pennsylvania State University, Univ. Park, PA; and F. Zhang and J. Ruppert Jr.

464
Intraseasonal Modulation of the Schumann Resonances by the MJO, CCEWs, and EWs
Alejandro Jaramillo, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico; and A. I. Quintanar, J. Rodríguez-Camacho, M. Pazos, and C. Dominguez

Handout (3.2 MB)

465
Leaky Equatorial Waves
Lyubov Chumakova, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom

466
Upward- and Downward-Propagating Kelvin Waves
Ahmed A. Shaaban, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy

467
Favorable Synoptic Scale Environment over Eastern Africa for Prediction of Tropical Cyclogenesis
Kelly M. Nunez Ocasio, The Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA

468
Does Jet Stream Sharpness Modulate the Downstream Response to Recurving Tropical Cyclones?
Peter M Finocchio, National Research Council, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle

470
Global Circulation Variability Associated with MJO Phase Speed
Alexander Tomoff, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy

471
Madden–Julian Oscillation Enhances Phytoplankton Biomass in the Maritime Continent
Chiung-Wen June Chang, Chinese Cultural University, Taipei, Taiwan; and H. H. Hsu, W. Cheah, W. L. Tseng, and L. C. Jiang

471A
Tropical Cyclones in Current Seasonal Forecast Models.
Daniel J. Befort, Univ. of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom


Joint Poster Session 1
Eighth Symposium of the MJO and Subseasonal Monsoon Variability Poster Session
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; and the Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium )
446
Tropical Cyclone Activity Prediction on Subseasonal Time Scales
Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY; and C. Y. Lee, F. Vitart, A. H. Sobel, M. K. Tippett, S. Wang, and J. Camp

447
The Influence of ENSO on Tropical Cyclone Impacts along the Pacific Coast of Mexico
Nicholas S. Grondin, Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN; and B. D. Keim

448
Assessing PV Streamer Activity and Its Relationship with TC Predictability in Subseasonal Forecasts
Philippe P. Papin, NRL, Monterey, CA; NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. Reynolds and M. A. Janiga

Poster 449 is now Paper J10.3A

451
Large-Scale State and Evolution of the Atmosphere and Ocean during PISTON
Adam H. Sobel, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and Z. K. Martin, S. Wang, J. Sprintall, and E. Maloney

452
The Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall and the Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves over the Maritime Continent
Naoko Sakaeda, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and G. Kiladis and J. Dias

453
Tidal Mixing Effects on Sea Surface Temperatures, Diurnal Rainfall and the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Maritime Continent
John D. Steffen, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA; and H. Seo

Tuesday, 14 January 2020

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Recording files available
Joint Session 31
Tropical Convection. Part I
Location: 205B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
Chairs: Allison A. Wing, Florida State Univ.; Torri Giuseppe, University of Hawai‘i
3:00 PM
J31.1
What Does Convective Organization Look Like in a GCM?
Courtney Schumacher, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX
3:15 PM
J31.2
Comparing Convective Self-Aggregation in Idealized Models to Observed Moist Static Energy Variability near the Equator
Tom Beucler, Univ. of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; Columbia Univ., New York, CA; and T. H. Abbott, T. W. Cronin, and M. S. Pritchard
3:30 PM
J31.3A
3:45 PM
J31.4
A Simple Framework for Understanding Slow, Convectively Coupled Circulations
Kerry Emanuel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Joint Poster Session 2
Middle Atmosphere Symposium
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Middle Atmosphere One-Day Symposium; the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
882
Simulating Spring Final Warmings in Historical Runs of CMIP6 Models
Brent A. Mcdaniel, Kennesaw State Univ., Kennesaw, GA

884
Sudden Stratospheric Warming and Vortex Intensification Monitoring at the Climate Prediction Center
Craig S. Long, NOAA, College Park, MD; and A. H. Butler and H. T. Lee

885
Using Time Series Motifs to Examine Preconditioning of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex
Zachary D. Lawrence, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and G. L. Manney

886
An Equivalent Latitude Formulation of the Stratospheric Northern Annular Mode
Zachary D. Lawrence, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and G. L. Manney

887
Different Predictability and Surface Impacts of Two Recent Split Stratospheric Vortex Events
Amy Hawes Butler, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and Z. D. Lawrence, S. H. Lee, S. P. Lillo, and C. S. Long

889
Slow Eastward-Propagating Planetary Waves prior to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
C. Todd Rhodes, Coastal Carolina Univ., Conway, SC; and V. Limpasuvan and Y. J. Orsolini

890
Trends and Variability in the Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex over the Last 100+ Years
Jason C. Furtado, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and B. A. Jarrett and C. Narotsky

891
Impact of Convectively Detrained Ice Crystals on the Tropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere
Rei Ueyama, NASA, Moffett Field, CA; and E. J. Jensen, L. Pfister, M. Krämer, and M. R. Schoeberl

892
Modeling Upper-Troposphere and Lower-Stratosphere Water Vapor from the Monsoons
Mark R. Schoeberl, Science and Technology Corporation, Columbia, MD; and E. J. Jensen, W. Randel, R. Ueyama, L. Pfister, and A. Dessler

894
Variability in Tropical Tropopause Layer Temperatures from Intraseasonal-to-Interannual Time Scales
Zane K. Martin, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and S. Wang and A. H. Sobel

895
Characterizing Spatial and Temporal Sampling Uncertainty in the SWOOSH Database
Ekaterina Lezine, Brown Univ., Winston Salem, NC; and S. M. Davis and K. H. Rosenlof

897
Homogeneity of Ozone Data from MERRA-2 and ERA-5
Peter Krizan, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Prague, Czech Republic; and M. Kozubek and J. Lastovicka

898
Zonally and Seasonally Resolved Ozone Response to the MJO and ENSO in Aura Satellite Measurements of the Upper Troposphere Lower Stratosphere
Olga V. Tweedy, USRA/NASA Postdoctoral Program, Greenbelt, MD; and L. D. Oman and D. W. Waugh

899
Ozone Variability and Trends in the Upper Troposphere–Lower Stratosphere Using Multiple Tropopause Definitions and Observation Techniques
Thierry Leblanc, JPL, Wrightwood, CA; and L. F. Millan, I. Petropavlovskikh, P. Hoor, G. L. Manney, H. Boenish, and A. Zahn

900
Insights into Tropical Ozone Profiles, Biases, and Uncertainties Using 20 Years of SHADOZ Reprocessed Data
Debra E. Kollonige, SSAI at NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and A. M. Thompson, R. M. Stauffer, M. Allaart, and A. Piters

901
Validation of SAGE III/ISS Stratospheric Water Vapor
Sean M. Davis, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO

904
Upcoming Improvements to the SAGE III/ISS Retrieval
David B. Huber, SSAI, Hampton, VA; and D. E. Flittner, R. Damadeo, L. Thomason, C. A. Hill, A. F. Rowell, R. Manion, M. Heitz, C. B. Hulsey, M. A. LaRosee, K. R. Leavor, and M. M. Roell

905
Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III on the International Space Station (SAGE III/ISS) V5.1 Science Data Validation: Ozone and Water Vapor
Susan Kizer, SSAI, Hampton, VA; and M. M. Roell, D. E. Flittner, R. Damadeo, L. Thomason, K. R. Leavor, T. Knepp, C. Roller, D. Hurst, E. Hall, A. Jordan, P. Cullis, B. Johnson, and R. Querel

906
HAPS (High Altitude Pseudo Satellite) UAS for Atmospheric Research—Demonstration and Outlook
Ru-Shan Gao, ESRL, Boulder, CO; NOAA, Boulder, CO; and K. H. Rosenlof, T. Thornberry, A. W. Rollins, P. Hall, and J. R. Walker

907
The Long-Lived Plume of the Pacific Northwest PyroCb Event: MLS Observations and Modeling of Composition Evolution
M. J. Schwartz, JPL/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and H. C. Pumphrey, P. Yu, and G. P. Kablick III

908
Carbon Dioxide in the Polar Stratosphere from AIM/SOFIE Measurements
Jia Yue, Hampton Univ., Hampton, VA; and Y. Su, M. Hervig, B. T. Marshall, A. K. Smith, R. R. Garcia, and J. M. Russell III

909
The Brewer–Dobson Circulation during the Last Glacial Maximum
Qiang Fu, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. H. White, M. Wang, and P. Lin

910
Decomposing the Brewer–Dobson Circulation Response to an Abrupt 4 x CO2 Perturbation
Andreas Chrysanthou, Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; and A. Maycock and M. Chipperfield

911
A Moments View of Climatology and Variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone
Gloria L. Manney, NorthWest Research Associates and New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and M. L. Santee, Z. D. Lawrence, M. J. Schwartz, and K. Wargan

912
915
The Buffer Zone of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation: Formation and Variability
Aaron L. Match, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and S. Fueglistaler

916
Seasonal and Latitudinal Variability of High-Frequency Gravity Waves in the Lower Stratosphere
Erik Anders Lindgren, Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA; and A. Sheshadri and R. W. Carver

917
Revisiting the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation
Hamid Alizadeh Pahlavan, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and Q. Fu, J. M. Wallace, and G. N. Kiladis

Handout (38.7 MB)

Wednesday, 15 January 2020

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Recording files available
Joint Session 34
Monsoon Dynamics: Variability, Change, and Impacts
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
Chair: Kerry Cook, Univ. of Texas, Austin
8:30 AM
J34.1
8:45 AM
J34.2
Understanding of the Roles of Global Warming and Natural Variability on Monsoon Rainfall
Kyung-Ja Ha, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); Pusan National Univ., Busan, Korea, Republic of (South)
9:00 AM
J34.3
The Bridging Role of Eurasian Winter Snow in the Relationship between East Asian Winter and Summer Monsoons
Mengmeng Lu, Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA; Sun Yat-sen Univ., Guangzhou, MA, China; and Z. Kuang, S. Yang, Z. Li, and H. Fan
9:15 AM
J34.4
Current and Future Variations of the Monsoons of the Americas in a Warming Climate
Salvatore Pascale, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and L. M. V. Carvalho, D. K. Adams, C. L. Castro, and I. Cavacanti
9:30 AM
J34.5
Model Performance in Simulating Global Monsoon Features: Skill Evolution across CMIP Generations
Luz Adriana Gómez, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Medellín, Medellín, Colombia; and D. C. Cruz, C. D. Hoyos, and P. J. Webster
9:45 AM
J34.6
Sensitivity of Monsoon Precipitation on Local Evaporation and Large-Scale Circulations Using Cloud-Permitting Model
Sourav Taraphdar, New York Univ. Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; and O. Pauluis

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Recording files available
Joint Session 48
Tropical Convection. Part II
Location: 205B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
Chairs: Allison A. Wing, Florida State Univ.; Lidia Huaman, Texas A&M Univ.
1:30 PM
J48.1
Overview and Highlights of OTREC
Zeljka Fuchs-Stone, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM
1:45 PM
J48.2
2:00 PM
J48.3
The Influence of Moisture on the Development of Tropical Deep Convection in High-Resolution Simulations
Rachel L. Storer, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and K. A. Schiro and D. J. Posselt
2:15 PM
J48.4
A Simple Conceptual Model for Rainfall over Flat Tropical Islands
Timothy W. Cronin, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and M. Velez-Pardo and P. Molnar

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Joint Poster Session 3
Monsoon Dynamics: Variability, Change, and Impacts
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
1161
Drying Tendency over the Southern Tibetan Plateau in Recent Past Decades
Ziqian Wang, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Guangzhou, China; and S. Yang

1162
How Would the Asian Summer Monsoon Change with a Meridionally Relocated Tibetan Plateau?
Song Yang, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Guangzhou, China; and J. Wang

1164
Summertime Rossby Wave Breaking in the Eastern North Pacific: Links to Extreme Weather in the North American Monsoon Region
Michael Sierks, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and W. Chapman, J. F. Kalansky, F. Cannon, and F. M. Ralph

1165
The Response of the Tropical Atmosphere to an Idealized Equatorial Continent. Results from TRACMIP
Michela Biasutti, LDEO, Palisades, NY; and A. Voigt and R. D. Russotto

1165A
A Lagrangian characterization of convergence zones in South America
Gabriel M. P. Perez, Univ. of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and P. L. Vidale and N. P. Klingaman


Joint Poster Session 4
Variability and Predictability of Climate on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Time Scales
Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
1166
Seasonal Precipitation Forecasting by Spectral Analysis of the Large Water Body Levels
Isabella Osetinsky-Tzidaki, Israeli Consulting in Climatological Projects and Practices, Bat Yam, Israel
Manuscript (398.0 kB)

Handout (1.2 MB)

1168
Predictability of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet and Its Associated Precipitation
Kelsey M. Malloy, Univ. of Miami/Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, FL; and B. Kirtman

1169
Atmospheric Blocking, Forecast Model Resolution, and Extreme Winter Weather Conditions in the United States
Kayla Besong, Univ. of Miami/Rosensteil School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, FL; and B. Kirtman

1170
High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling of Reanalysis Data over the Kerguelen Islands using the WRF Model
Ricardo Morais Fonseca, Khalifa Univ. of Science and Technology, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; Luleå Univ. of Technology, Luleå, Sweden; and F. J. Martin-Torres

Handout (2.7 MB)

1171
Multiscale Interactions in a High-Resolution Tropical Belt Experiment and Observations
Ricardo Morais Fonseca, Khalifa Univ. of Science and Technology, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; Earth Observatory of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore; and T. Y. Koh, C. K. Teo, and T. Zhang

Handout (2.6 MB)

1172
Designing an Optimal Strategy for GMAO S2S Ensemble Forecast
Anna Borovikov, SSAI, Greenbelt, MD; NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Schubert, J. Marshak, and Y. K. Lim

Poster 1174 is now Paper J64.5A.

1175
The Consistency of MJO Teleconnection Patterns on Interannual Time Scales
Kai-Chih Tseng, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. D. Maloney and E. A. Barnes

1177
Clustering Analysis of Autumn Weather Regimes in the Northeast United States
David W. Coe, Univ. of Massachusetts Lowell, Lowell, MA; and L. Agel, M. Barlow, F. P. Colby Jr., and C. Skinner

Handout (1.2 MB)

1178
Synoptic Analysis of Siberian Pulse Events
Michael Ashley Follensbee, Univ. of Massachusetts Lowell, Lowell, MA; and M. Barlow, L. Agel, and D. W. Coe

1179
The Role of Convection on the Decreasing Caribbean Precipitation during a Regional, Warming Sea Surface Temperature Period: 1982–2017
Equisha Glenn, NOAA, New York, NY; and J. E. Gonzalez, T. Smith, J. M. Galvez, and M. Davison

1181
Incorporation of Decadal Trends into the Calibration, Bridging, and Merging (CBaM) Method for Seasonal Prediction of North American Temperature and Precipitation
Johnna Infanti, NOAA, College Park, MD; and D. C. Collins, S. Strazzo, Q. J. Wang, Y. Shao, and A. D. Schepen

Thursday, 16 January 2020

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

Recording files available
Joint Session 58
Variability and Predictability of Climate on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Time Scales. Part I
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
Chair: Isla Simpson, National Center for Atmospheric Research
8:30 AM
J58.1
Hybrid Prediction of Severe Storm Activity: Utilizing Weather Regimes
Douglas E. Miller, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang
9:00 AM
J58.3
Winter Storm Tracks and Related Weather in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Weeks 3–4 Reforecasts for North America
Katherine E. Lukens, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD; and E. H. Berbery
9:15 AM
J58.4
Warm Pool SST Forecast Skill in S2S Models: Mean State Drift versus Anomaly Patterns
Charlotte A. DeMott, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and N. P. Klingaman

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

Recording files available
Joint Session 64
Variability and Predictability of Climate on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Time Scales. Part II
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
Cochairs: Zane K. Martin, Columbia Univ.; Ángel F. Adames-Corraliza, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor
10:30 AM
J64.1
The Importance of Past MJO Activity for Empirical Predictions of Midlatitude Weather
Elizabeth A. Barnes, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and K. C. Tseng and E. D. Maloney
10:45 AM
J64.2
Sources of Tropical Subseasonal Predictability
Matthew Newman, CIRES–Colorado Univ., Boulder, CO; NOAA, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh and Y. Wang
11:00 AM
J64.3
Evaluation of Skillful All-Season S2S Prediction of U.S. Precipitation Using the MJO and QBO
Kyle M. Nardi, The Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and E. A. Barnes, E. D. Maloney, C. F. Baggett, D. S. Harnos, L. M. Ciasto, and C. M. Zarzycki
11:15 AM
J64.4
Improving Week 3–4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks by Incorporating the Stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation as a Predictor
Cory F. Baggett, Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/Innovim, LLC, College Park, MD; and L. M. Ciasto, D. S. Harnos, S. R. Baxter, C. S. Long, M. L'Heureux, J. Gottschalck, and M. Halpert
11:30 AM
J64.5A
Midlatitude Prediction Skill Provided by the QBO–MJO on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Time Scales
Kirsten J. Mayer, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. A. Barnes
11:45 AM
J64.6
Seasonal Prediction of Wintertime Teleconnections—Empirical Model Compared to CFSv2
Stephen Baxter, NOAA/CPC, College Park, MD; and J. Stuivenvolt Allen

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

Recording files available
Joint Session 67
Variability and Predictability of Climate on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Time Scales. Part III
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
Cochairs: Zane K. Martin, Columbia Univ.; Ángel F. Adames-Corraliza, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor
1:30 PM
J67.1
Detecting Intraseasonal Climate Variability in the Tropics with Legacy Satellites
Xuechang Liu, Indiana Univ., Bloomington, IN; and P. W. Staten and B. H. Kahn
1:45 PM
J67.2
Does the Madden–Julian Oscillation Affect Crop Yields?
Weston Anderson, IRI, Palisades, NY; and E. Han, W. Baethgen, Á. Muñoz, L. Goddard, and A. W. Robertson
2:00 PM
J67.3
Insignificant QBO–MJO Skill Relationship in the Subseasonal Reforecasts
Hyemi Kim, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and J. H. Richter and Z. K. Martin
2:15 PM
J67.4
Springtime Onset of Isolated Convection across the Southeastern United States: Insights Using a Monsoon Framework
Thomas M. Rickenbach, East Carolina Univ., Greenville, NC; and R. Nieto Ferreira and H. Wells
2:30 PM
J67.5
Physical and Dynamical Characteristics of Upper-Level Coupling in Great Plains Low-Level Jet Morphology
D. Alex Burrows, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. R. Ferguson and L. Bosart