Joint Session 61 Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability

Program Chairs: Naoko Sakaeda , Univ. of Oklahoma ; Juliana Dias , CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL

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Monday, 13 January 2020

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Session 1
Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Host: Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability
Cochairs: Juliana Dias, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA; Alex Omar Gonzalez, Iowa State University
8:30 AM
.1
The Mysterious MJO: Here today, gone tomorrow! (Invited Presentation)
Julia M. Slingo, Cabot Institute, Bristol, United Kingdom

8:45 AM
.2
A New MJO Theory
J-E Kim, Pusan National University, Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); and C. Zhang

9:00 AM
.3
What determines propagation speed of the Madden-Julian Oscillation?
Guosen Chen, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; and B. Wang

9:15 AM
.4
Analysis of Primary Madden-Julian Oscillation Events in the Indian Ocean using Satellite Observations
Casey G Shoup, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC; and S. Bulusu

9:30 AM
.5
Examining the MJO-QBO Relationship in a GCM with a Nudged Stratosphere
Zane K Martin, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and C. Orbe, S. Wang, and A. H. Sobel

9:45 AM
.6
The Madden-Julian Oscillation, wave energy accumulation and the formation of intense South Atlantic Convergence Zones
Fernando E. Hirata, Federal University of Parana, Curitiba, Brazil; and V. Toma and P. J. Webster

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 13 January 2020


AM Coffee Break (Monday)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Session 2
Tropical Waves and Tropical-Extratropical Interactions
Host: Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability
Chair: Naoko Sakaeda, Univ. of Oklahoma
10:30 AM
.1
Alternative Explanations of Convectively Coupled Disturbances between the MJO and Convectively Coupled Kelvin waves
Paul E. Roundy, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY

11:00 AM
.3
The Role of Moisture in the Convective Coupling of Equatorial Waves
Brandon O. Wolding, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. Dias, G. N. Kiladis, E. Maloney, and M. Branson

11:15 AM
.4
11:30 AM
.5
Tropical Forcing of Euro-Atlantic Weather Regime Transitions: Reanalysis and Predictions
Ralph Getzandanner, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and D. M. Straus

11:45 AM
.6
Assessing the influence of tropical forecast errors on higher latitude predictions using nudging experiments.
Juliana Dias, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA, Boulder, CO; and S. N. Tulich, M. Gehne, and G. Kiladis

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Joint Session
Convection over the Maritime Continent
Hosts: (Joint between the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; and the Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium )
Chair: Eric D. Maloney, Colorado State University
2:00 PM
1.1
Early Observation and Modeling Results from the NASA Cloud, Aerosol, and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2Ex)
D. J. Posselt, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and J. S. Reid, S. van den Heever, J. Mace, L. Di Girolamo, and L. D. Ziemba

2:15 PM
1.2
Diurnal Forcing and Phase Locking of Gravity Waves in the Maritime Continent
James Ruppert Jr., Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang and X. Chen

2:30 PM
1.3
Numerical simulations of the precipitation along the coastal areas of Sumatera Island
Kazuaki Yasunaga, Univ. of Toyama, Toyama, Japan; and R. Okugawa

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Joint Session
Subseasonal to seasonal variability and prediction of tropical cyclones
Hosts: (Joint between the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; and the Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium )
Chair: Suzana Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University
3:00 PM
2.1
Sub-seasonal Predictability of a Genesis Potential Index
Rodrigo Bombardi, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and L. Trenary and K. Emanuel

3:15 PM
2.2
The Relationship between Autumn Cold Surge Activity and Tropical Cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific
Alex K. Mitchell, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. Bosart

3:30 PM
2.3
The Impact of the MJO on NHC Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecasts
Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL; and P. J. Klotzbach and J. P. Cangialosi

3:45 PM
2.4
The relationship between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification
Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL; and J. Kaplan

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Mon)

Poster Session 1
Eighth Symposium of the MJO and Subseasonal Monsoon Variability Poster Session
Host: Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability
Mean State Modulation of MJO Propagation: Role of Background Meridional Moisture Gradient
Daehyun kang, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Kim and M. S. Ahn

Impact of Rossby and Kelvin Wave Components on MJO Eastward Propagation
Lu Wang, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China; and T. Li and T. Nasuno

Fast and Slow Mjo Modes Modulated by Enso in Boreal Winter
Hong-Li Ren, Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; and Y. Wei

MJO Simulation in CMIP6 Models: How much improvement has been made from CMIP5 to CMIP6?
Min-Seop Ahn, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Kim, D. Kang, J. Lee, K. R. Sperber, and P. J. Gleckler

Interactions of large-scale dynamics and diabatic heating in multi-model MJO simulations
Ashley L Heath, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and A. O. Gonzalez

Interaction of MJO with Monsoon Trough over India
Nishtha Agrawal, University of Allahabad, ALLAHABAD, India

Role of air-sea interactions in intensifying and decaying of MJO event over North Indian Ocean
BIBHUTI SHARAN KESHAV, INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY BHUBANESWAR, BHUBANESWAR, India; and K. Landu

Effect of Sub-seasonal Tropical Oscillations on Extreme Weather over Indian Subcontinent
Kiranmayi Landu, INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY BHUBANESWAR, BHUBANESWAR, India; and T. Zore and A. Subudhi

Modulations of the Diurnal Cycle of Coastal Rainfall over South China Caused by the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation
Xingchao Chen, The Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and F. Zhang and J. Ruppert Jr.

Intraseasonal Modulation of the Schumann Resonances by the MJO, CCEWs and EWs
Alejandro Jaramillo, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico; and A. I. Quintanar, J. Rodríguez-Camacho, M. Pazos, and C. Dominguez

Leaky equatorial waves
Lyubov Chumakova, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom

Upward and downward propagating Kelvin wave.
Ahmed A. Shaaban, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy

PV budget analysis on high-resolution simulations to understand the interaction of AEWs with convection
Kelly Marie Nunez Ocasio, The Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park,, PA

Does jet stream sharpness modulate the downstream response to recurving tropical cyclones?
Peter M. Finocchio, National Research Council, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle

Global Circulation Variability Associated with MJO Phase Speed
Alexander Tomoff, University at Albany, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy


Joint Poster Session 1
Eighth Symposium of the MJO and Subseasonal Monsoon Variability Poster Session
Hosts: (Joint between the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability; and the Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium )
Tropical cyclone activity prediction on subseasonal time-scales
Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and C. Y. Lee, F. Vitart, A. H. Sobel, M. K. Tippett, S. Wang, and J. Camp

The Influence of ENSO on Tropical Cyclone Impacts along the Pacific Coast of Mexico
Nicholas S. Grondin, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN; and B. D. Keim

Assessing PV Streamer Activity and its Relationship with TC Predictability in Subseasonal Forecasts
Philippe P. Papin, National Research Council, Monterey, CA; NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. Reynolds and M. A. Janiga

Tropical Cyclones in Current Seasonal Forecast Models
Daniel J. Befort, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; and K. I. Hodges and A. Weisheimer

Large-Scale State and Evolution of the Atmosphere and Ocean during PISTON
Adam H. Sobel, Columbia University, New York, NY; and Z. K. Martin, S. Wang, J. Sprintall, and E. Maloney

The Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall and the Convectively-Coupled Equatorial Waves over the Maritime Continent
Naoko Sakaeda, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and G. Kiladis and J. Dias

Tidal Mixing Effects on Sea Surface Temperatures, Diurnal Rainfall and the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Maritime Continent
John D. Steffen, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA; and H. Seo

Tuesday, 14 January 2020

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Joint Session 29
Tropical Convection-I
Location: 205B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
Chairs: Allison A. Wing, Florida State Univ.; Torri Giuseppe, University of Hawai‘i
3:00 PM
J29.1
What does convective organization look like in a GCM?
Courtney Schumacher, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX

3:15 PM
J29.2
Comparing Convective Self-Aggregation in Idealized Models to Observed Moist Static Energy Variability near the Equator
Tom Beucler, UCI, Irvine, CA; Columbia University, New York, CA; and T. H. Abbott, T. W. Cronin, and M. S. Pritchard

3:30 PM
J29.3
Cold Pools and the Organization of Tropical Convection in Global Cloud-System Resolving Simulations
Steven K. Krueger, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and M. Khairoutdinov

3:45 PM
J29.4
A simple framework for understanding slow, convectively coupled circulations
Kerry Emanuel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Joint Poster Session 2
Middle Atmosphere Symposium
Hosts: (Joint between the Middle Atmosphere One-Day Symposium; the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
Simulating Spring Final Warmings in Historical Runs of CMIP6 Models
Brent A. Mcdaniel, Kennesaw State University, Kennesaw, GA

Sudden Stratospheric Warming and Vortex Intensification Monitoring at the Climate Prediction Center
Craig S. Long, NOAA, College Park, MD; and A. H. Butler and H. T. Lee

Using time series motifs to examine preconditioning of the stratospheric polar vortex
Zachary D. Lawrence, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and G. L. Manney

An equivalent latitude formulation of the stratospheric northern annular mode
Zachary D. Lawrence, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and G. L. Manney

Different predictability and surface impacts of two recent split stratospheric vortex events
Amy Hawes Butler, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and Z. D. Lawrence, S. H. Lee, S. P. Lillo, and C. S. Long

Slow Eastward-Propagating Planetary Waves Prior to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
C. Todd Rhodes, Coastal Carolina University, Conway, SC; and V. Limpasuvan and Y. J. Orsolini

Trends and Variability in the Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex Over the Last 100+ Years
Jason C. Furtado, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and B. A. Jarrett and C. Narotsky

Impact of Convectively Detrained Ice Crystals on the Tropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere
Rei Ueyama, NASA, Moffett Field, CA; and E. J. Jensen, L. Pfister, M. Krämer, and M. R. Schoeberl

Modeling Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere Water Vapor from the Monsoons
Mark R. Schoeberl, Science and Technology Corporation, Columbia, MD; and E. J. Jensen, W. Randel, R. Ueyama, L. Pfister, and A. Dessler

Variability in Tropical Tropopause Layer Temperatures from Intra-seasonal to Interannual Timescales
Zane K Martin, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and S. Wang and A. H. Sobel

Characterizing Spatial and Temporal Sampling Uncertainty in the SWOOSH Database
Ekaterina Lezine, Brown University, Winston Salem, NC; and S. M. Davis and K. H. Rosenlof

Creating long-term climate data records using transfer functions: methodology and application for SAGE II, MIPAS and OMPS ozone profile datasets
Alexandra Laeng, Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie, Karlsruhe, Germany; and V. Sofieva, N. Kramarova, T. von Clarmann, G. Stiller, K. A. Walker, L. Froidevaux, J. Zawodny, and J. Plieninger

Homogeneity of Ozone Data from MERRA-2 and ERA-5.
Peter Krizan, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Prague, Czech Republic; and M. Kozubek and J. Lastovicka

Zonally and Seasonally Resolved Ozone Response to the MJO and ENSO in Aura Satellite Measurements of the Upper Troposphere Lower Stratosphere
Olga V. Tweedy, USRA/NASA Postdoctoral Program, Greenbelt, MD; and L. D. Oman and D. W. Waugh

Ozone variability and trends in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere using multiple tropopause definitions and observation techniques
Thierry Leblanc, JPL, Wrightwood, CA; and L. F. Millan, I. Petropavlovskikh, P. Hoor, G. L. Manney, H. Boenish, and A. zahn

Insights into Tropical Ozone Profiles, Biases and Uncertainties Using 20 Years of SHADOZ Reprocessed Data
Debra E. Kollonige, SSAI at NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and A. M. Thompson, R. M. Stauffer, M. Allaart, and A. Piters

Validation of SAGE III/ISS stratospheric water vapor
Sean M. Davis, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO

SAGE III ISS Aerosol Measurements in the Context of Contemporaneous Satellite Observations
K. R. Leavor, SSAI, Hampton, VA; and D. E. Flittner and M. M. Roell

Upcoming Improvements to the SAGE III/ISS Retrieval
David B. Huber, SSAI, Hampton, VA; and D. E. Flittner, R. Damadeo, L. Thomason, C. A. Hill, A. F. Rowell, R. Manion, M. Heitz, C. B. Hulsey, M. A. LaRosee, K. R. Leavor, and M. M. Roell

Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III on the International Space Station (SAGE III/ISS) V5.1 Science Data Validation: Ozone and Water Vapor
Susan Kizer, SSAI, Hampton, VA; and M. M. Roell, D. E. Flittner, R. Damadeo, L. Thomason, K. R. Leavor, T. Knepp, C. Roller, D. Hurst, E. Hall, A. Jordan, P. Cullis, B. Johnson, and R. Querel

HAPS (high altitude pseudo satellite) UAS for Atmospheric Research – Demonstration and Outlook
Ru-Shan Gao, ESRL, Boulder, CO; NOAA, Boulder, CO; and K. H. Rosenlof, T. Thornberry, A. W. Rollins, P. Hall, and J. R. Walker

The Long-Lived Plume of the Pacific Northwest PyroCb Event: MLS Observations and Modeling of Composition Evolution
M. J. Schwartz, JPL/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and H. C. Pumphrey, P. Yu, and G. P. Kablick III

Carbon dioxide in the polar stratosphere from AIM/SOFIE measurements
Jia Yue, Hampton Univ., Hampton, VA; and Y. Su, M. Hervig, B. T. Marshall, A. K. Smith, R. R. Garcia, and J. M. Russell III

The Brewer-Dobson Circulation during the Last Glacial Maximum
Qiang Fu, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. H. White, M. wang, and P. Lin

Decomposing the Brewer-Dobson Circulation response to an abrupt 4xCO2 perturbation
Andreas Chrysanthou, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; and A. Maycock and M. Chipperfield

A Moments View of Climatology and Variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone
Gloria L. Manney, NorthWest Research Associates and New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and M. L. Santee, Z. D. Lawrence, M. J. Schwartz, and K. Wargan

A Diagnostic Equation for Tendency of Lapse-Rate-Tropopause Heights and its Application
Masashi Kohma, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; and K. Sato

The Buffer Zone of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation: Formation and Variability
Aaron L Match, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and S. Fueglistaler

Seasonal and Latitudinal Variability of High-Frequency Gravity Waves in the Lower Stratosphere
Erik Anders Lindgren, Stanford University, Stanford, CA; and A. Sheshadri and R. W. Carver

Revisiting the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation
Hamid A. Pahlavan, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and Q. Fu, J. M. Wallace, and G. N. Kiladis

Impact of QBO and ENSO in the southern hemisphere polar middle atmosphere
Tao Li, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China; and C. Yang and R. Garcia

Wednesday, 15 January 2020

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Joint Session 32
Monsoon Dynamics: Variability, Change and Impacts
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
Chair: Kerry Cook, University of Texas, Austin
8:30 AM
J32.1
Opposite Phase Changes of Precipitation Annual Cycle over Land and Ocean Under Global Warming
L. Ruby Leung, PNNL, Richland, WA; and F. Song, J. Lu, and F. liu

8:45 AM
J32.2
Understanding of the Roles of Global Warming and Natural Variability on Monsoon Rainfall
Kyung-Ja Ha, Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); Pusan National Univ., Busan, Korea, Republic of (South)

9:00 AM
J32.3
The Bridging Role of Eurasian Winter Snow in the Relationship between East Asian Winter and Summer Monsoons
Mengmeng Lu, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; Sun Yat-sen Univ., Guangzhou, MA, China; and Z. Kuang, S. Yang, Z. Li, and H. Fan

9:15 AM
J32.4
Current and Future Variations of the Monsoons of the Americas in a Warming Climate
Salvatore Pascale, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and L. M. V. Carvalho, D. K. Adams, C. L. Castro, and I. Cavacanti

9:30 AM
J32.5
Model Performance in Simulating Global Monsoon Features: Skill Evolution across CMIP Generations
Luz Adriana Gómez, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Medellín, Medellín, Colombia; and D. C. Cruz, C. D. Hoyos, and P. J. Webster

9:45 AM
J32.6
Sensitivity of Monsoon Precipitation on local Evaporation and Large-scale Circulations using Cloud Permitting Model
Sourav Taraphdar, New York Univ. Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; and O. Pauluis

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Joint Session 5
Tropical Convection-II
Location: 205B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones Symposium; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
Chairs: Allison A. Wing, Florida State University; Lidia Huaman, Texas A&M Univ.
1:30 PM
7.1
Overview and Highlights of OTREC
Zeljka Fuchs-Stone, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM

1:45 PM
7.2
900–700 hPa Static Stability Controls on Tropical Convection in Moist Environments
Scott W. Powell, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA

2:00 PM
7.3
The Influence of Moisture on the Development of Tropical Deep Convection in High Resolution Simulations
Rachel L. Storer, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and K. A. Schiro and D. J. Posselt

2:15 PM
7.4
A Simple Conceptual Model for Rainfall Over Flat Tropical Islands
Timothy W. Cronin, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and M. Velez-Pardo and P. Molnar

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Joint Poster Session 3
Monsoon Dynamics: Variability, Change and Impacts
Location: Hall B1 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
Drying Tendency over the Southern Tibetan Plateau in Recent Past Decades
Ziqian Wang, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China; and S. Yang

How Would the Asian Summer Monsoon Change with a Meridionally-relocated Tibetan Plateau?
Song Yang, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China; and J. Wang

Summertime Rossby Wave Breaking in the Eastern North Pacific: Links to Extreme Weather in the North American Monsoon Region
Michael Sierks, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and W. Chapman, J. F. Kalansky, F. Cannon, and F. M. Ralph

The Response of the Tropical Atmosphere to an Idealized Equatorial Continent. Results from TRACMIP
Michela Biasutti, LDEO, Palisades, NY; and A. Voigt and R. D. Russotto

Variable-resolution Simulations of Gulf of California Moisture Surges in the North American Monsoon
Sarahi Arriaga-Ramirez, LBNL, Berkeley, CA; Univ. of California Davis, Davis, CA; and T. A. O'Brien, P. Ullrich, and W. Boos


Joint Poster Session 4
Variability and Predictability of Climate on Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Timescales
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
MJO Propagation and its Influence on Temperature and Precipitation over the US
Kirstin J. Harnos, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC/Innovim, College Park, MD; and W. Wang

Predictability of the Great Plains Low-level Jet and its Associated Precipitation
Kelsey M. Malloy, University of Miami Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, FL; and B. Kirtman

Atmospheric Blocking, Forecast Model Resolution, and Extreme Winter Weather Conditions in the U.S.
Kayla Besong, University of Miami Rosensteil School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, FL; and B. Kirtman

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling of Re-Analysis Data over the Kerguelen Islands using the WRF Model
Ricardo Morais Fonseca, Khalifa Univ. of Science and Technology, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; Luleå University of Technology, Luleå, Sweden; and F. J. Martin-Torres

Multi-Scale Interactions in a High-Resolution Tropical-Belt Experiment and Observations
Ricardo Morais Fonseca, Khalifa Univ. of Science and Technology, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; Earth Observatory of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore; and T. Y. Koh, C. K. Teo, and T. Zhang

Designing an optimal strategy for GMAO S2S ensemble forecast
Anna Borovikov, SSAI, Greenbelt, MD; NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Schubert, J. Marshak, and Y. K. Lim

Towards improving S2S forecast of the Japan Meteorological Agency's Global Ensemble Prediction System (JMA-GEPS)
Natsuko Otsuka, JMA, Chiyoda-ku, Japan; and T. Takakura and T. Y. Tanaka

Midlatitude Prediction Skill Provided by the QBO-MJO on Subseasonal to Seasonal Timescales
Kirsten Mayer, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and E. A. Barnes

The consistency of MJO teleconnection patterns on interannual timescales
Kai-Chih Tseng, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and E. D. Maloney and E. A. Barnes

Clustering Analysis of Autumn Weather Regimes in the Northeast U.S.
David W. Coe, University of Massachusetts Lowell, Lowell, MA; and L. Agel, M. Barlow, F. P. Colby Jr., and C. Skinner

Synoptic Analysis of Siberian Pulse Events
Michael Ashley Follensbee, University of Massachusetts Lowell, Lowell, MA; and M. Barlow, L. Agel, and D. W. Coe

The Role of Convection on the Decreasing Caribbean Precipitation During a Regional, Warming Sea-Surface Temperature Period, 1982-2017
Equisha Glenn, NOAA, New York, NY; and J. E. Gonzalez, T. Smith, J. M. Galvez, and M. Davison

Sub-Seasonal Predictions with NCEP’s Unified Forecast System
Lydia Stefanova, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and S. Saha, B. Li, J. Wang, D. Worthen, J. Meixner, and A. Mehra

Incorporation of Decadal Trends into the Calibration, Bridging, and Merging (CBaM) Method for Seasonal Prediction of North American Temperature and Precipitation
Johnna Infanti, NOAA, College Park, MD; and D. C. Collins, S. Strazzo, Q. J. Wang, Y. Shao, and A. D. Schepen

Thursday, 16 January 2020

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


Joint Session 53
Variability and Predictability of Climate on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Timescales Part 1
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
Chair: Isla Simpson, National Center for Atmospheric Research
8:30 AM
J53.1
Investigation into Winter Blocking Regimes: Mechanisms for Onset and Predictability
Douglas E. Miller, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang

9:00 AM
J53.3
Winter Storm Tracks and Related Weather in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Weeks 3-4 Reforecasts for North America
Katherine E. Lukens, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. H. Berbery

9:15 AM
J53.4
Warm Pool SST Forecast Skill in S2S Models: Mean State Drift vs Anomaly Patterns
Charlotte A. DeMott, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and N. P. Klingaman

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


Joint Session 57
Variability and Predictability of Climate on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Timescales Part 2
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
Cochairs: Zane K Martin, Columbia Univ.; Ángel F. Adames-Corraliza, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
10:30 AM
J57.1
The importance of past MJO activity for empirical predictions of midlatitude weather
Elizabeth A. Barnes, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and K. C. Tseng and E. D. Maloney

10:45 AM
J57.2
Sources of tropical subseasonal predictability
Matthew Newman, CIRES - CU Boulder, Boulder, CO; NOAA, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh and Y. Wang

11:00 AM
J57.3
Evaluation of Skillful All-Season S2S Prediction of U.S. Precipitation using the MJO and QBO
Kyle M. Nardi, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and E. A. Barnes, E. D. Maloney, C. F. Baggett, D. S. Harnos, L. M. Ciasto, and C. M. Zarzycki

11:15 AM
J57.4
Improving Week 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks by Incorporating the Stratospheric Quasi-biennial Oscillation as a Predictor
Cory F. Baggett, Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/Innovim, LLC, College Park, MD; and L. M. Ciasto, D. S. Harnos, S. R. Baxter, C. S. Long, M. L'Heureux, J. Gottschalck, and M. Halpert

11:30 AM
J57.5
Improving CPC's Weeks 3&4 Outlooks via Incorporating Extratropical Predictors and an Objective Guidance Blend
Daniel S. Harnos, NOAA, College Park, MD; and L. M. Ciasto, J. Gottschalck, M. Halpert, and M. L'Heureux

11:45 AM
J57.6
Seasonal Prediction of Wintertime Teleconnections - Empirical Model Compared to CFSv2
Stephen Baxter, NOAA CPC, College Park, MD; and J. Stuivenvolt Allen

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


Joint Session 61
Variability and Predictability of Climate on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Timescales Part 3
Location: 154 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the Eighth Symposium on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sub-Seasonal Monsoon Variability )
Cochairs: Zane K Martin, Columbia Univ.; Ángel F. Adames-Corraliza, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
1:30 PM
J61.1
Detecting intraseasonal climate variability in the Tropics with legacy satellites
Xuechang Liu, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN; and P. W. Staten and B. H. Kahn

1:45 PM
J61.2
Does the Madden-Julian Oscillation affect crop yields?
Weston Anderson, IRI, Palisades, NY; and E. Han, W. Baethgen, Á. Muñoz, L. Goddard, and A. W. Robertson

2:00 PM
J61.3
Insignificant QBO-MJO skill relationship in the subseasonal reforecasts
Hyemi Kim, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and J. H. Richter and Z. K. Martin

2:15 PM
J61.4
Springtime Onset of Isolated Convection Across the Southeastern United States: Insights Using a Monsoon Framework
Thomas M. Rickenbach, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC; and R. Nieto Ferreira and H. Wells

2:30 PM
J61.5
Physical and dynamical characteristics of upper-level coupling in Great Plains low-level jet morphology
D. Alex Burrows, Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. R. Ferguson and L. Bosart