The Influence of ENSO on Tropical Cyclone Impacts along the Pacific Coast of Mexico

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most destructive meteorological phenomena and impact the lives of people who reside along the coast. The Pacific Coast of Mexico borders the second most active TC development region in the world, the eastern North Pacific (ENP) basin. This region is home to a growing population and cities engaged in a variety of economic activities, most prominently agriculture, fishing, and especially, tourism. This study analyzes fifty-two (1966-2017) years of ENP TC track data from the National Hurricane Center’s HURDAT2 "best track" database to analyze the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on TC strikes and TC tracks within 100 nautical miles of the Mexican coastline Results show that La Niña years seem to promote an increased percentage of strikes along the Mexican coastline and an increased percentage of storms tracking closer to the Mexican coast. Results of this research have utility to coastal planners, local governments, tourism agencies, and investors in this region in understanding the risk this oft overlooked region has to TCs. In addition, these results can help provide a climatological foundation to understand how climate change may modulate TC activity in the region.