J10.4 The Relationship between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification

Monday, 13 January 2020: 3:45 PM
254B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL; and J. Kaplan

The relationship between the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and tropical cyclone rapid intensification in the northern basins of the western hemisphere are studied. All rapid-intensification events in the north/western hemisphere and the phase and amplitude of the MJO are compiled from 1974 to 2015. Rapid intensification events and the MJO tend to move in tandem with each other from west to east across the hemisphere. However, the addition of this information to a statistical rapid intensity forecasting scheme does not significantly improve forecasts, likely because of the large scatter in the MJO phase and amplitude for rapid-intensification events that occur close to each other in longitude.
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