Following this event, the Model Evaluation Group (MEG) at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s Environmental Modeling Center (NCEP/EMC) reviewed the performance of operational and experimental convection-allowing model (CAM) guidance. Highlights of that event review will be presented.
CAM guidance from NCEP’s NAM Nest, HRRR, and three HiResWindow systems provided a wide range of forecast solutions for the evolution of convection across Oklahoma, Kansas, and the Texas panhandle. The diversity in forecast solutions largely resulted from differences in how the models handled the elevated convection and its effect on the frontal boundary draped across north-central Oklahoma.
Details regarding the importance of appropriately initializing ongoing convection and associated mesoscale features will be discussed. Additionally, it will be shown that updraft helicity guidance from the HRRR may have signaled a more limited severe/tornado potential across the warm sector despite the numerous supercell-like structures seen in its forecasts. Finally, quantitative precipitation forecasts will be discussed briefly.