Program: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) (100th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting)

Program Chairs: Stephen Bieda III , NWSFO ; Ryan A. Lagerquist , CIMMS

Reviewers: Jeff S. Waldstreicher , NOAA/NWS ; Brandt D. Maxwell , NOAA/NWS ; Shawn Milrad , Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University ; Jerry Wegiel , NASA GSFC/SAIC ; Kathleen M. Magee , National Weather Service ; Malaquias Pena , SAIC and EMC/NCEP/NOAA ; Kandis Boyd , OAR ; Marina Astitha , Univ. of Connecticut ; Maria Gehne , CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, NOAA ESRL PSD ; Timothy S. Sliwinski , Group NIRE ; Aaron Hill , Texas Tech University ; Bruce Telfeyan , 557 Weather Wing ; Heather Holmes , Univ. of Texas ; Holly J. Oldroyd , Univ. of California, Davis ; Kristie Franz , Iowa State University ; Daniel Pagliaro , Pagcore Solutions LLC ; Jessie C. Carman , OAR ; James D. Doyle , NRL ; Rebecca Adams-Selin , AER ; Stephanie Avey , NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center ; Erik S. Pytlak , Bonneville Power Administration ; Christopher McCray , McGill Univ. ; Gregory J. Stumpf , CIRA/Colorado State University and NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory ; May Wong , University of British Columbia ; Christopher J. Melick , 557th Weather Wing ; Andrew C. Winters , Univ. at Albany, SUNY ; Clark Evans , Univ. of Wisconsin–Milwaukee ; Martin A. Baxter , Central Michigan University ; Joseph P. Koval , The Weather Company ; Benjamin C. Trabing , Colorado State Univ. ; James Pinto , NCAR ; Maxwell Grover , Valparaiso University

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Sunday, 12 January 2020

4:00 PM-6:30 PM: Sunday, 12 January 2020

Presidential Forum, Annual Meeting Welcome, Annual Review and Awards Ceremony

Location: Ballroom East (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Monday, 13 January 2020

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Session 1A

Analysis and Forecasting of Severe Thunderstorms and Associated Hazards. Part I

Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Cochairs: Clark Evans, Univ. of Wisconsin–Milwaukee; Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER

8:30 AM

1A.1

Development and Improvements in the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Data Assimilation System (HRRRDAS)

Therese T. Ladwig, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. C. Dowell, C. Alexander, M. Hu, S. Weygandt, G. Ge, T. Alcott, and I. Jankov

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

1A.2

Vice and Virtue of Increased Resolution of Thunderstorm Objects

John R. Lawson, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin, P. S. Skinner, and A. E. Reinhart

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

1A.3

Understanding High-Shear Low-CAPE (HSLC) Environments across the Contiguous United States and Europe Using Reanalysis Data

Elinor R. Martin, South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, Norman, OK; Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and F. Battaglioli, H. Croad, R. Cumming, and H. E. Brooks

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

1A.4

Forecast Parameters for U.S. Hail Occurrence and Size

John T. Allen, Central Michigan Univ., Mount Pleasant, MI; and M. R. Kumjian, C. J. Nixon, R. E. D. Jewell, B. T. Smith, and R. L. Thompson

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

1A.5

Sensitivity of a Winter Tornado Outbreak to Upstream SSTs

Maria J. Molina, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. T. Allen and A. F. Prein

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

1A.6

Role of Unusual MCS Morphology in the Table Rock Lake Duck Boat Tragedy and Its Implications for Messaging to Vulnerable User Groups

Randall Graham, Smithville, MO

Recorded Presentation

Session 1B

Verification, Bias Correction, and Postprocessing of Numerical Weather Models. Part I

Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Chair: Joseph P. Koval, The Weather Company - An IBM Business

8:30 AM

1B.1

A New Webpage for Visualizing Verification Statistics from the Environmental Modeling Center's Numerical Modeling Suite

Alicia M. Bentley, I.M. Systems Group and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and C. D. Logan, B. T. Blake, M. P. Row, L. C. Dawson, and J. J. Levit

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

1B.2

Advancing Capabilities for Verification of Convection-Allowing Models at the Environmental Modeling Center

Logan C. Dawson, I.M. Systems Group, Inc. and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and J. R. Carley, G. S. Manikin, B. T. Blake, Y. Lin, P. Shafran, E. Rogers, B. Zhou, M. E. Pyle, and J. J. Levit

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

1B.3

Characteristics of Convective Initiation in High-Resolution Simulations: Object-Based Validation Using Geostationary Satellite Observations

D. Henderson, Univ. of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI; and J. A. Otkin, J. Mecikalski, D. Haliczer, and X. Li

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

1B.4

Verification of Convection-Allowing NWP in High-Shear, Low-CAPE Environments

Chase S. Graham, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

1B.5

Object-Based Climatology and Verification of HRRR Forecasts

Jeffrey Duda, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; CIRES, Boulder, CO; and C. Alexander

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

1B.6

The Use of the METplus Verification and Diagnostic Capability in Forecast Evaluation across Multiple Scales and Applications

Tara Jensen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Halley Gotway, G. P. McCabe Jr., J. Frimel, M. P. Row, R. G. Bullock, T. L. Fowler, D. W. Fillmore, B. Strong, M. Marquis, M. Win-Gildenmeister, J. Prestopnik, D. R. Adriaansen, and C. P. Kalb

Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 13 January 2020

AM Coffee Break (Monday)

Location: Boston Convention and Exhibition Center

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Panel Discussion 1

Panel Discussion: Transitions from Research to Operations, Operations to Research, and Operations to Practice (Centennial)

Location: 258B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Special Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; and the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) )

Chair: Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER

Moderator: Kandis Boyd, OAR

Panelists: Louisa B. Nance, NCAR; Patrick Harr, Jupiter Intelligence; John S. Kain, NOAA; Kimberly E. Klockow-McClain, Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma; Evan Kuchera, 557th Weather Wing; Laura Myers, Center for Advanced Public Safety. The Univ. of Alabama

PD1.1

The Weather Enterprise Wants to Know How to Improve Protective Action

Laura Myers, Center for Advanced Public Safety, Univ. of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL

PD1.2

Improving the Decision Requires More than Improving the Forecast

Evan Kuchera, 557th Weather Wing, Offutt AFB, NE

Recorded Presentation

PD1.3

One Perspective on the Key Elements of Successful R2O and O2R within NOAA

John S. Kain, NOAA, College Park, MD

Recorded Presentation

10:30 AM

Transitioning the "Valley of Death" by Patrick Harr

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Lunch Break (Monday)

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Session 2A

Analysis and Forecasting of Severe Thunderstorms and Associated Hazards. Part II

Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Cochairs: James McCormick, Software Engineering Services; Sam Ng, Metropolitan State University

2:00 PM

2A.1

Distinguishing Characteristics of Tornadic and Nontornadic Supercell Storms from Composite Mean Analyses of Radar Observations

C. R. Homeyer, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and T. Sandmæl and C. K. Potvin

2A.2

An Analysis of the Environmental and Physical Processes That Led to a Nocturnal Tornado in a Highly Stable Boundary Layer

2:15 PM

2A.2A

The Unusual Tornadoes in Chile in May 2019: Forecasting Challenges from the Synoptic, Mesoscale, and Subseasonal Scales

Bradford S. Barrett, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and J. C. Marin and M. Jacques-Coper

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

2A.3

Outflow Character and Updraft Strength in idealized Supercell Simulations and their Influence on Tornadogenesis

Jannick Fischer, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and J. Dahl

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

2A.4

Refining CAM-Based Tornado Probability Forecasts Using Storm-Inflow and Storm-Attribute Information

David E. Jahn, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and B. T. Gallo, C. Broyles, B. T. Smith, I. L. Jirak, and J. M. Milne

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.1 MB)

Session 2B

Verification, Bias Correction, and Postprocessing of Numerical Weather Models. Part II

Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Chair: Joseph P. Koval, The Weather Company - An IBM Business

2:00 PM

2B.1

Verification and Optimization of a Patchwise Localized Probability Matched Mean for Ensemble QPF

Nathan Snook, CAPS, Norman, OK; and K. Brewster, F. Kong, and M. Xue

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

2B.2

Comparison of Object-Based and Grid-Based Verification of Warn-on-Forecast System HAILCAST Forecasts

Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER, Omaha, NE; and C. P. Kalb, P. S. Skinner, and T. Jensen

Recorded Presentation

Handout (4.4 MB)

2:30 PM

2B.3

Reducing Moist-Adiabatic Calculation Costs Using Lookup Tables

Nathan Aaron Dahl, CIMMS, Norman, OK; SPC, Norman, OK

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.1 MB)

2:45 PM

2B.4

Using Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) to Bias Correction of Wind Speed Forecasting

Bonyang Ku, KMA, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and M. K. Kim, S. Y. Park, and Y. H. Lee

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Panel Discussion 2

NWA/AMS Ronald W. Przybylinski Research Operations Nexus (RON) Meetup

Location: 205C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Special Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP); and the 10th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations )

Chair: Gregory J. Stumpf, CIRA/Colorado State University and NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory

CoChair: Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER

Facilitator: Gregory J. Stumpf, CIRA/Colorado State University and NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Session 3A

Advances in Downscaling of Weather and Climate Models

Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Chair: Erik S. Pytlak, Bonneville Power Administration

3:00 PM

3A.1

On the Urban Effects in High-Resolution Weather Forecast and Regional Climate Simulations

Tomas Halenka, Charles Univ., Prague, Czech Republic; and J. Karlicky, M. Belda, P. Huszar, and T. Novakova

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

3A.2

Potential for Downscaling Precipitation Forecasts Using Orographic Precipitation Gradients in the Western United States

Lucas Bohne, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and C. Strong and W. J. Steenburgh

Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM

3A.3

STAR-ESDM: High-Resolution Station- and Grid-Based Climate Projections

Katharine Hayhoe, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and I. Scott-Fleming and A. M. K. Stoner

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

3A.4

Novel Approaches for Downscaling of 21^st Century Precipitation Extremes –Focus over the Mediterranean & Mid-East

Pinhas Alpert, Tel Aviv Univ., Tel Aviv, Israel; Tel Aviv Univ., Tel Aviv, Israel

Recorded Presentation

Session 3B

Analysis and Forecasting of Severe Thunderstorms and Associated Hazards. Part III

Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Cochairs: Sam Ng, Metropolitan State University; Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS

3:00 PM

3B.1

Climatology of Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes in China from 2006 to 2018

Zhiyong Meng, Peking Univ., Beijing, China; and L. Bai, K. Sueki, G. Chen, and R. Zhou

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

3B.2

Does Ambient Deep-Tropospheric Vertical Wind Shear Influence Tornadic Supercells in Tropical Cyclones?

Benjamin A. Schenkel, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and R. Edwards and M. C. Coniglio

Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM

3B.3

Projecting the End-of-Century Severe Hail and Tornado Landscape across Eastern Colorado Using Synthetic Reports and Pseudo-Global Warming Approaches

Samuel J. Childs, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

3B.4

Observational Summary of the Effects of the Northeastern Alabama Plateaus on the Near-Storm Environment of Tornadic Storms during VORTEX-SE

Anthony W. Lyza, Univ. of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and T. A. Murphy, B. T. Goudeau, P. Pangle, K. R. Knupp, and R. A. Wade

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Mon)

Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Poster Session 1

30 WAF/26 NWP Monday Poster Session

Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

145

Evolution and Development Mechanisms of a Rare, Strong Arc-Shaped Squall Line Occurring in Northern Beijing in 2017

Qi Luo, CMA, Beijing, China; and Y. Zheng and M. Chen

Manuscript (2.2 MB)

Handout (2.2 MB)

146

An Evaluation of Vertical Thermodynamic Profiles and Derived Stability Parameters from Parallel FV3- and Spectral-Model GFS Forecasts

Dillon V. Blount, Univ. of Wisconsin–Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and C. Evans, I. L. Jirak, and A. R. Dean

147

Exploring a Missed Convection Initiation Forecast by Assimilating GOES-16 Brightness Temperatures and WSR-88D Observations

Paul Mykolajtchuk, The Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and K. C. Eure, Y. Zhang, D. J. Stensrud, and F. Zhang

148

Radar-Based Investigation of Thunderstorm Outflow Speed versus Peak Wind Gusts

Angela J. Mose, NOAA, Kokomo, IN

149

Diagnosing Environmental Properties of the July 2018 Heavy Rainfall Event in Japan

Takashi Unuma, JMA, Tokyo, Japan; and T. Takemi and T. Tabata

Handout (2.4 MB)

150

Simultaneous Assimilation of WSR-88D and GOES-16 Observations to Improve Ensemble Forecasts of Convection Initiation

Keenan C. Eure, The Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; ESRL, Boulder, CO; and P. Mykolajtchuk, Y. Zhang, D. J. Stensrud, and F. Zhang

151

Understanding Frequent Lightning Environments over the NWS Albany, New York, County Warning Area

Christina Speciale, National Weather Service, Albany, NY

152

Verification of the Convection-Allowing Ensemble System over the Hindu Kush Himalaya Region during the 2018 and 2019 Premonsoon Severe Thunderstorm Seasons

J. L. Case, ENSCO, Inc., Huntsville, AL; and P. N. Gatlin, J. Srikishen, and E. W. McCaul Jr.

153

Investigating the Structure of Updraft Helicity in an Idealized Supercell Simulation

Jeffrey M. Milne, CIMMS, Norman, OK; Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; SPC, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak and H. E. Brooks

Manuscript (948.9 kB)

Handout (546.3 kB)

154

A Meteorological Assessment of the Initial Development of the 19 July 2019 Wisconsin Derecho

William R. Borghoff, NWS, Chanhassen, MN

Handout (7.4 MB)

155

Analyzing Thunderstorms for Improved Lightning Safety

Jeff Lapierre, Earth Networks, Germantown, MD; and M. Stock

156

Thunder-Day Climatology Using Modern Lightning Location Data

Michael Stock, Earth Networks, Germantown, MD; and J. Lapierre, M. Hoekzema, C. Merrill, and M. Mehallow

157

Exploring the Use of a Storm-Relative Time Height to Analyze Changes in the Preconvective Environment

Adam T. Hirsch, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market

158

The Catastrophic Case of Heavy Rainfall and Flash Flooding of 14–15 October 2018 in Southwestern France: A Multiscale Observational and Modeling Analysis

Olivier Caumont, CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France; and F. Bouttier, C. Lebeaupin Brossier, A. Lovat, M. Mandement, O. Nuissier, O. Laurantin, and J. Eeckman

159

Analysis and Prediction of High-Impact Weather over Lake Victoria in East Africa

Rita D. Roberts, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. W. Wilson, A. Hartley, and C. L. Bain

160

Comparative Analyses of Nontornadic versus Tornadic Quasi-Linear Convective Systems in Central Oklahoma 24–25 May 2019

Barry R. Bowers, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Norman, OK; and V. N. Mahale, T. T. Lindley, and R. Smith

161

Assimilation of Local Ground Stations and Radar Data to Improve the Prediction of the 9–10 September 2017 Thunderstorm in Livorno, Italy

Diego Cerrai, Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT; and V. Capecchi, S. Melani, L. Rovai, A. Antonini, and A. Ricchi

162

An Updated Severe Hail and Tornado Climatology for Eastern Colorado

Samuel J. Childs, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

163

Use of WRF-HAILCAST to Produce a Dynamically Downscaled Hail Climatology

Chase Calkins, AER, Lincoln, NE; and R. Adams-Selin

164

Hailstorms in Association with Cold-Core Lows in Brazil

Ernani L. Nascimento, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, Brazil

165

Comparison of One-Dimensional Pseudo-Lagrangian and Three-Dimensional Fully Lagrangian Trajectories when Forecasting Hail Size

Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER, Omaha, NE

Handout (1.1 MB)

166

Updating HAILCAST Hail Size Predictions in NSHARP

Nathan Aaron Dahl, CIMMS, Norman, OK; SPC, Norman, OK; and R. Adams-Selin, R. E. D. Jewell, and I. L. Jirak

Manuscript (8.1 MB)

Handout (4.2 MB)

167

Simulating Self-Assembly of Tornado Storm Chasers Using Agent-Based Modeling

Paul Roebber, Univ. of Wisconsin−Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and A. J. Moxon, A. Seimon, and J. Allen

Handout (443.3 kB)

168

Examination of the Predictability of Nocturnal Tornado Events in the Southeastern United States

Ariel E. Cohen, NWS, Miami, FL; and R. C. Bunker, J. A. Hart, A. E. Gerard, K. E. Klockow-McClain, and D. P. Nowicki

169

Observed Relationship between Tornado Intensity and Pretornadic Mesocyclone Characteristics

Michael Frank Sessa, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, IL; and R. J. Trapp and J. Einbinder

170

Analyses of Quasi-Linear Convective System Tornado Characteristics, Environments, and Genesis Mechanisms

Devin Chehak, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, IL; and R. J. Trapp

171

On Improving Tornado Detection in the Northeastern United States via an Objective Radar and Near-Storm Environment Algorithm

Jonathan O'Brien, NWS Mount Holly, New Jersey, Westampton, NJ; and R. Jain, C. Shafer, L. R. Robertson, P. fitzsimmons, V. Meola, and A. staarmann

Poster 172 is now Paper 2A.2A.

173

Short-Term Prediction of QLCS Mesovortices in the Southeast United States on 30 April 2017

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., CIMMS, Norman, OK; and M. B. Chasteen and M. J. Krocak

174

Environmental Nuances and Convective Morphology during the 30 April 2017 Tornado Outbreak in the Southeastern United States

Manda B. Chasteen, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and T. J. Galarneau Jr., M. J. Krocak, and Z. A. Brooke Zibton

175

The Use of Updraft Helicity as a Severe Weather Surrogate for Convective Systems

Morris L. Weisman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. A. Sobash, C. S. Schwartz, and K. Manning Sr.

176

Development of Unified Post Processing System (UPP) for FV3-Based Global, Regional, Hurricane, and Ensemble Systems

Wen Meng, NOAA, College Park, MD; and H. Y. Chuang and J. J. Levit

177

Experimenting Model Blend at the Finnish Meteorological Institute

Leila Hieta, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; and M. Partio, M. Vanhatalo, J. S. Ylhaisi, and M. Laine

178

Recent Upgrades of the Operational HRRR and GFS: Are Cool-Season Precipitation Forecasts Improving over the Mountain West?

W. James Steenburgh, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and M. Caron

179

Evaluating the Rapid Refresh Numerical Weather Prediction Model in the Arctic

Matthew Bray, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and D. D. Turner and G. de Boer

180

A Surface Temperature and Moisture Intercomparison Study of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, In Situ Measurements, and Satellite Observations over the Atacama Desert

Ricardo Morais Fonseca, Khalifa Univ. of Science and Technology, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; Luleå Univ. of Technology, Luleå, Sweden; and M. P. Zorzano-Mier, A. Azua-Bustos, C. González-Silva, and F. J. Martin-Torres

Handout (2.5 MB)

181

Wind Forecasts for Rocket and Balloon Launches at the Esrange Space Center Using the WRF Model

Ricardo Morais Fonseca, Khalifa Univ. of Science and Technology, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; Luleå Univ. of Technology, Luleå, Sweden; and F. J. Martin-Torres and K. Andersson

Handout (2.0 MB)

182

Verification of WRF Model Forecasts of Windstorms in Southwestern British Columbia

Bryan Jansens, Univ. of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada; and J. Jeworrek, G. West, and R. Stull

183

Evaluation of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Model Using Near-Surface Meteorological and Flux Observations

Temple R. Lee, NOAA/ARL/ATDD and CIMMS, Oak Ridge, TN; and M. S. Buban, D. D. Turner, T. P. Meyers, and C. B. Baker

Handout (3.5 MB)

184

The WMO Standard Verification of the Surface Fields for the Deterministic Numerical Weather Prediction in the Japan Meteorological Agency

184

Evaluation of the HRRR Model and COAMPS during Atmospheric River Events in California

Kevin J. Dougherty, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Nachamkin and J. Horel

185

The Use of METplus Verification and Diagnostic Capabilities for Evaluating Sea-Ice Predictions

Lindsay R. Blank, NCAR, Boulder, CO; Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and R. Grumbine, T. Jensen, and J. J. Levit

187

Systematic Comparison of Convection-Allowing Models during the 2017 NOAA HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment

Corey Potvin, NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. R. Carley, A. J. Clark, L. J. Wicker, P. S. Skinner, A. E. Reinhart, B. T. Gallo, J. S. Kain, G. S. Romine, E. Aligo, K. A. Brewster, D. C. Dowell, L. M. Harris, I. L. Jirak, F. Kong, T. A. Supinie, K. W. Thomas, X. Wang, Y. Wang, and M. Xue

186

Machine Learning Enhancement of Spatial Lake-Effect Precipitation Forecasts

188

Correction of Temperature Forecast Using Spectral Analysis Method on Mountain Area

Min-Jong Song, KMA, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. Y. Park, S. H. KIM, and Y. H. Lee

189

Forecast Skill of Varying WRF Resolutions and Physics Parameterization Combinations over the Finger Lakes and Long Island with Statistical Postprocessing

Marc J. Alessi, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and A. T. DeGaetano

190

Analyzing Weather-Regime-Dependence of GFS Extended Precipitation Forecast Skill Based on the Convective Adjustment Time Scale

Malcolm T. Wilson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; The Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and M. Wong and C. Schwartz

191

Implementation of CAM-HAILCAST in the Stand-Alone Regional FV3

John M. Henderson, AER, Lexington, MA; and C. Calkins, T. Supinie, L. M. Harris, Y. Wang, and R. Adams-Selin

192

New Visualization Techniques, Verification Tools, and Results from the NWS Probabilistic Snowfall Experiment

Jeff S. Waldstreicher, NOAA/NWS, Bohemia, NY; and D. B. Radell

193

Verification and Visualization of Ensemble Snowband Forecasts

Jacob T. Radford, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann

195

A Large Eddy Simulation Study on Atmospheric Flows over Multiscale Terrain

Song-Lak Kang, Gangneung-Wonju National Univ., Gangneung, Korea, Republic of (South); and J. H. Ryu

196

Orographic and Land Surface Impacts on Numerical Weather Forecasts When Simulating a Sudden Downwelling Event in a Medium-Sized Lake

Campbell D. Watson, Thomas J. Watson Research Center, IBM, Yorktown Heights, NY; and G. Auger, H. Kolar, and L. A. Treinish

194

Rainband Array Formed on the Southern Part of Shikoku Island, Japan

197

Characterization and Probabilistic Discrimination between Hailstorm and Rainfall Events over Complex Terrain in a Tropical Environment Using Remote Sensors and In Situ Data

Juan Manuel Valencia, Sistema de Alerta Temprana del Valle de Aburrá (SIATA), Medellín, Colombia; and C. D. Hoyos Ortíz

198

Anabatic Winds over a Steep Alpine Slope: Observations of the Turbulence Structure

Holly J. Oldroyd, Univ. of California, Davis, Davis, CA; and E. R. Pardyjak and M. B. Parlange

199

Persistent Cold-Air Pools in Mountainous Areas: Distribution and Simulation

Xia Sun, Univ. of Nevada, Reno, NV; and S. Colgan, C. E. Ivey, and H. A. Holmes

200

Downscaling Precipitation Forecast with Super-High Resolution

Xufeng Guo, Shanghai Em-Data Technology Co., Ltd., Shanghai, China; and Z. Liu, H. Zuo, Y. Xiao, Z. Yan, and C. Lu

201

Development of the High-Resolution Japan Regional Reanalysis

Toshiki Iwasaki, Tohoku Univ., Sendai, Japan; and S. Fukui, K. Saito, and H. Seko

202

Projection and Possible Causes of Summer Precipitation in Eastern China Using Self-Organizing Maps

Zhihong Jiang, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; and M. Li

203

The Implementation of a High-Resolution Mesoscale Model Test Bed for the New York City Metropolitan Area

Anthony P. Praino, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY; and L. A. Treinish, C. D. Watson, and M. Tewari

204

Single-Suite Stochasticity for Thunderstorms: Can It Beat a Mixed-Physics Suite?

John R. Lawson, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin, N. Yussouf, and J. S. Kain

205

The Effect of the North American Monsoon Anticyclone on Cross-Tropopause Convective Outflow

Corey E. Clapp, Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA; and J. B. Smith, K. Bedka, and J. G. Anderson

6:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Exhibits Opening and Reception

Location: Hall A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Tuesday, 14 January 2020

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Joint Panel Discussion 3

Future Challenges in Weather Analysis and Forecasting (Centennial)

Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP); the Special Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; the Eighth Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation's Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; and the Eighth AMS Conference for Early Career Professionals )

Moderators: Stephen Bieda III, NWSFO; Ryan A. Lagerquist, CIMMS

Panelists: Louis Uccellini, NOAA; Marshall Shepherd, Univ. of Georgia; Yvette Richardson, Pennsylvania State Univ.; Peter Neilley, The Weather Company, an IBM Business; Betty Davis, CIMMS; Neil A. Jacobs, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

8:30 AM

Centennial Panel Discussion

Stephen Bieda III, NWSFO, Amarillo, TX

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

Memorial for Bill Lapenta (Centennial)

Stephen Bieda III, NWSFO, Amarillo, TX

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 14

Joint Session on Scale Interactions and Predictability—In Memory of Fuqing Zhang: Part I

Location: 104C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Fourth Symposium on Multiscale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Weather, Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction; the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP); the 24th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); and the Fifth Symposium on US-International Partnerships )

Chair: Kerry Emanuel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

8:30 AM

J14.1

The Role of Observations in Advancing Earth Science Prediction (Invited Presentation) (Core Science Keynote)

G. L. Stephens, JPL, Pasadena, CA

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

J14.2

Data Assimilation and Ensembles: Two Invaluable Tools to Increase Predictability and Quantify Uncertainty (Invited Presentation)

Roberto Buizza, Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Pisa, Italy

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

J14.3

Forecast Error Growth of Convective Processes through Nonlinear Interaction between Dynamical and Moisture Initialization Uncertainties (Invited Presentation)

Masashi Minamide, JPL, Pasadena, CA; JPL, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and F. Zhang and D. J. Posselt

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Exhibit Hall (Tuesday)

Location: Hall A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

AM Coffee Break (Tuesday)

Location: Boston Convention and Exhibition Center

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Session 4A

Advances in Dynamics and Physics of Numerical Weather Models. Part I

Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Cochairs: Jessie C. Carman, OAR; Louisa Nance, NCAR and Developmental Testbed Center

10:30 AM

4A.1

Vertical Resolution Requirements for NWP models

William C. Skamarock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Snyder, J. Klemp, and S. H. Park

Recorded Presentation

Handout (16.6 MB)

10:45 AM

4A.2

The Navy’s Next-Generation NEPTUNE Modeling System

James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and A. Reinecke, J. Michalakes, K. C. Viner, S. Gabersek, M. Martini, D. D. Flagg, D. R. Ryglicki, A. Huang, and F. X. Giraldo

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

4A.3

Dynamics–Physics Coupling in the New GEM Dynamical Core with Height-Based Vertical Coordinates

Syed Zahid Husain, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and C. Girard and A. Qaddouri

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

4A.4

Vertical Extension of NCEP FV3 for Whole Atmospheric Modeling

Hann-Ming Henry Juang, NCEP, College Park, MD; and S. K. Kar and A. Kubaryk

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

4A.5

Upgrade of Land Surface Processes in JMA's Operational Global NWP Model

Takashi Nabetani, JMA, Tokyo, Japan; and T. Tokuhiro, C. Matsukawa, and H. Yonehara

Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.4 MB)

11:45 AM

4A.6

A Generalized Z-Grid Numerical Prediction Model for Improving Stability and Efficiency

Yuanfu Xie, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China

Recorded Presentation

Session 4B

Analysis and Forecasting of Winter Weather. Part I

Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Chair: Martin A. Baxter, Central Michigan University

10:30 AM

4B.1

Application of Recent Northeast Cool-Season CSTAR Conceptual Models to Three March 2018 Snowstorms Impacting Eastern New York and Western New England

Thomas A. Wasula, NOAA/NWS, Albany, NY; and M. S. Evans

Recorded Presentation

Handout (5.4 MB)

10:45 AM

4B.2

Use of Gridded Snowfall from NOAA’s Office of Water Prediction at the Weather Prediction Center

Gregory W. Carbin, NOAA/NWS/Weather Prediction Center, College Park, MD; and G. Fall and D. Petersen

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

4B.3

How Should Snow Squall Warnings Be Verified?

Peter C. Banacos, NWS, Burlington, VT

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

4B.4

Maximizing Interactive Decision Support Services for Road Maintenance and Visitors at Yosemite National Park by Identifying Biases in HRRR Snow-Level Predictions

Kristian Mattarochia, NWS, Hanford, CA

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

4B.5

Characteristics of Sea-Effect Precipitation Systems in the Heavy Snow Region of Japan

W. James Steenburgh, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and P. G. Veals, T. West, T. M. Gowan, and S. Nakai

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

4B.6

What Allows Some Freezing Rain Events to Persist for Many Hours? A Focus on Dynamic and Thermodynamic Processes

Christopher D. McCray, McGill Univ., Montréal, Canada; and J. R. Gyakum and E. H. Atallah

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 19

Joint Session on Scale Interactions and Predictability—In Memory of Fuqing Zhang: Part II

Location: 104C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Fourth Symposium on Multiscale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Weather, Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction; the Fifth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the 24th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); and the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) )

Chair: Sharanya Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS

10:30 AM

J19.1

Impermeability and Constraints on Tropical–Extratropical and Interhemispheric Communication (Invited Presentation)

Peter J. Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and V. Toma, C. D. Hoyos, S. Ortega, G. L. Stephens, and G. N. Kiladis

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

J19.2

Ensemble Prediction and Predictability of Extreme Weather on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Time Scales Using Circulation Regimes (Invited Presentation)

David M. Straus, George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA; and K. Pegion

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

J19.3

Atmospheric Predictability of the Tropics, Middle Latitudes, and Polar Regions Explored through Global Storm-Resolving Simulations (Invited Presentation)

Falko Judt, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Lunch Break (Tuesday)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Session 5A

Advances in Dynamics and Physics of Numerical Weather Models. Part II

Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Cochairs: Jessie C. Carman, OAR; Louisa Nance, NCAR and Developmental Testbed Center

1:30 PM

5A.1

Evaluation of Boundary Layer Structure in NWP Models

Robert G. Fovell, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

5A.2

Modeling Large- and Small-Lake Temperature and Ice Evolution in the RAP/HRRR Models

E. P. James, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO; and T. G. Smirnova, S. Benjamin, P. Y. Chu, E. J. Anderson, G. E. Mann, and A. Fujisaki

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

5A.3

Development of Multiple-Nest Capability in the Operational Global Forecast System

Xuejin Zhang, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and W. Ramstrom, A. Hazelton, L. Harris, T. Black, S. Gopalakrishnan, and F. Marks

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

5A.4

Evaluating Simulated Microphysics in the Pacific Northwest: Evidence for a Warm-Rain Problem

Robert Conrick, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass

Recorded Presentation

Session 5B

Analysis and Forecasting of Winter Weather. Part II

Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Chair: Christopher McCray, McGill Univ.

1:30 PM

5B.1

Influence of Atmospheric Rivers on Long-Duration Freezing Rain Events in Eastern North America

Douglas Miller, Univ. of North Carolina Asheville, Asheville, NC

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.2 MB)

Handout (5.2 MB)

1:45 PM

5B.2

The Influence of Diabatic Heating on the Development of Two North American Jet Superposition Events

Andrew C. Winters, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

5B.3

Extreme Cold-Season Precipitation Regimes in Eastern North America: A Multiscale Dynamic–Thermodynamic Analysis

John R. Gyakum, McGill Univ., Montreal, Canada; and E. H. Atallah and Y. Low

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

5B.4

The Intense High Plains “Bomb” Cyclone of 12–14 March 2019

Lance F. Bosart, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and T. C. Leicht and A. K. Mitchell

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 20

Probabilistic Hydrometeorological Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis. Part I

Location: 253A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 34th Conference on Hydrology; the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP); and the 26th Conference on Probability and Statistics )

Chair: Huiling Yuan, Nanjing Univ.

Cochairs: Kristie Franz, Iowa State University; Shugong Wang, NASA GSFC/SAIC; Christopher J. Melick, 557th Weather Wing

1:30 PM

J20.1

A Historical Perspective on Hydrometeorological Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis (Core Science Keynote) (Invited Presentation) (Centennial)

Qingyun Duan, Hohai Univ., Nanjing, China; and H. Yuan and K. Franz

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

J20.2

What Makes a "Good" Probabilistic Forecast?

K. Scharfenberg, NWS, Boulder, CO; and A. Bol, R. Graham, P. L. Heinselman, T. Alcott, H. E. Brooks, P. Skinner, K. Hoogewind, and A. Lamers

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

J20.3

Deeper Insights into Winter Weather via Probabilistic Snowfall Forecasts from The Weather Company

James I. Belanger, The Weather Company, Brookhaven, GA; and J. K. Williams, J. P. Koval, J. McDonald, P. Bayer, N. McGillis, L. Howard, and R. L. Weeks

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

PM Coffee Break (Tuesday)

Location: Boston Convention and Exhibition Center

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Session 6A

Advances in Dynamics and Physics of Numerical Weather Models. Part III

Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Cochairs: Louisa Nance, NCAR and Developmental Testbed Center; Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER

3:00 PM

6A.1

Linking NEPTUNE with NAVDAS-AR: A Cycling NWP System Coupling a 3D Spectral Element Model and 4DVar Data Assimilation

Kevin Viner, NRL, Monterey, CA; and D. R. Ryglicki, P. A. Reinecke, J. Doyle, and B. S. Chua

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

6A.2

Combining the Common Community Physics Package with a Single-Column Model to Drive NWP Physics Advancements

Grant J. Firl, NCAR and the Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and D. Heinzeller, L. Xue, and L. Bernardet

Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM

6A.3

Advances in Model Physics for the Next Implementation of the GFS (GFSv16)

John S. Kain, NOAA, College Park, MD; and S. Moorthi, F. Yang, R. Yang, H. Wei, Y. Wu, Y. T. Hou, H. M. Lin, V. A. Yudin, J. C. Alpert, V. Tallapragada, and R. Sun

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

6A.4

The Ice Particle and Aggregate Simulator (IPAS): Investigating Aggregate Properties Using a Multifaceted Modeling Approach

Vanessa M. Przybylo, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. Sulia, C. G. Schmitt, and Z. J. Lebo

Recorded Presentation

Session 6B

Analysis and Forecasting of Winter Weather. Part III

Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Chair: Sam Ng, Metropolitan State University

3:00 PM

6B.1

Measurements of Hazardous Winter Precipitation in the St. Lawrence River Valley

Mathieu Lachapelle, UQAM, Montreal, Canada; and J. M. Thériault

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

6B.2

Microphysical Characteristics of Snowbands along the U.S. Northeast Coast Using In Situ Surface and Radar Observations and Simulations

Brian A. Colle, Stony Brook Univ., Stony Brook, NY; and M. Oue and P. Kollias

Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM

6B.3

Lessons Learned from the Real-Time Implementation of the Spectral Bin Classifier Surface Precipitation Type Algorithm

Andrew A. Rosenow, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and H. D. Reeves

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

6B.4

The Relationship between Simulated Reflectivity and Precipitation across Different Microphysics Schemes in a Banded Snowfall Event

Martin A. Baxter, Central Michigan Univ., Mount Pleasant, MI

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 26

Probabilistic Hydrometeorological Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis. Part II

Location: 253A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Chair: Huiling Yuan, Nanjing Univ.

Cochairs: Kristie Franz, Iowa State University; Shugong Wang, NASA GSFC/SAIC; Christopher J. Melick, 557th Weather Wing

3:00 PM

J26.1

Contribution of Infiltration Process Uncertainty on the Simulation of Terrestrial Water and Energy Budgets

Shugong Wang, NASA GSFC/SAIC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. V. Kumar, D. M. Mocko, J. W. Wegiel, and C. D. Peters-Lidard

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

J26.2

Integrating entropy and copulas for precipitation gauging network optimization based on information balancing strategy

Heshu Li, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and D. Wang and Y. Wang

Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM

J26.3

Improving Water Forecasting with Bayesian Averaging of Multiple Forecasts

Ali Jozaghi, Univ. of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX; and M. Ghazvinian, D. J. Seo, Y. Zhang, E. Welles, S. Reed, and M. A. Fresch

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

J26.4

Evaluation of Probabilistic Convective Precipitation Forecasts over South China Using the GRAPES Convective-Scale Ensemble

Jing Chen, Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Tues)

Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Poster Session 2

30 WAF/26 NWP Tuesday Poster Session

Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

642

Verification of Convection-Allowing Initial Condition Ensemble Modeling Systems with WRF-ARW

Russell P. Manser, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and B. C. Ancell

643

Designing a Process for Selecting, Vetting, and Implementing Physics Innovations in a Community Modeling Paradigm

John S. Kain, NOAA, College Park, MD; and L. R. Bernardet, V. Tallapragada, F. Yang, G. Manikin, R. Vasic, J. Doyle, C. Bretherton, G. Grell, J. Olson, S. Moorthi, A. Cheng, J. Dudhia, L. K. Bengtsson, J. W. Bao, and M. Harrold

644

Toward Consistent Physical Constant Sets for Interoperable Earth System Models

Sue Chen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Montuoro, L. Marx, S. Goldhaber, N. P. Barton, T. J. Campbell, C. DeLuca, B. Li, D. McCarren, J. Meixner, M. Vertenstein, N. Zadeh, J. Infanti, B. R. Brown, R. Dunlap, and G. Theurich

645

Verification of the Physics Suite Testing for GFS v16 Using the Model Evaluation Tools

Michelle Harrold, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Wolff, M. Zhang, T. Hertneky, L. Bernardet, J. K. Henderson, L. R. Blank, W. Li, L. Pan, G. Firl, and T. Jensen

646

An Evaluation of Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) Physics Suites across Scales

Kathryn M. Newman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. J. Hertneky, E. A. Kalina, M. Harrold, L. Pan, G. Firl, E. D. Grell, L. Carson, and M. Ek

647

One-Stop Shopping for Physics across Scales: From a Single-Column Model to Three-Dimensional Configurations for Weather and S2S

Linlin Pan, NOAA/GSD, Univ. of Colorado/CIRES, and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; NOAA, Boulder, CO; and L. Bernardet, D. Heinzeller, E. Kalina, G. Firl, E. Grell, K. Newman, L. Carson, and G. Grell

648

Coupling FLAKE with GFSv15

Yihua Wu, NCEP, College Park, MD; and J. Wang, J. S. Kain, and V. Tallapragada

649

The Effect of Moist Physics and Resolution on Baroclinic Wave Evolution in an Idealized Simulation

650

Weather Forecasting with a Nonhydrostatic Global Atmospheric Prediction System on a Cubed-Sphere Grid

SongYou Hong, KIAPS, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South)

651

Challenges in Improving the Representation of Mesoscale Kinetic Energy in NWP Models

Jih-Wang Aaron Wang, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh

652

Evaluation of the Performance of the WRF Model over the United Arab Emirates

Ricardo Morais Fonseca, Khalifa Univ. of Science and Technology, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; and M. Temimi, M. Weston, N. R. Nelli, M. S. Thota, and V. Valappil

Handout (2.3 MB)

654

Toward an Optimal Configuration of Dynamics and Physics for GEFS v12

Bing Fu, NCEP, College Park, MD; IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and X. Zhou, Y. Zhu, J. Peng, and D. Hou

655

Grid Refinement in a Global Spectral Element Model

Alex Reinecke, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Martini, J. Michalakes, J. D. Doyle, D. D. Flagg, A. Huang, and D. R. Ryglicki

653

Sensitivity of Summer Convective Precipitation to Dynamical Core Configurations in the GEM Model

656

NWP Prediction at ESRL/GSD: Overview of Global Modeling Development Activities

Georg A. Grell, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and H. C. Barnes, S. Sun, L. Bernardet, R. Montuoro, H. Li, B. W. Green, T. G. Smirnova, L. Zhang, J. Olson, R. Ahmadov, and R. Bleck

657

Full Velocity Field Reconstruction on Icosahedral Grids for Shallow-Water Models

Yonggang G. Yu, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and N. Wang, Y. Xie, and M. W. Govett

658

Development and Performance of the GFDL Global Prediction System—SHiELD

Linjiong Zhou, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and S. J. Lin, L. Harris, K. Gao, B. Xiang, M. A. Bender, and J. H. Chen

659

Evaluating and Tuning Orographic Gravity Wave Drag Parameterizations in Atmospheric NWP Models

Michael D. Toy, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. B. Olson, T. G. Smirnova, J. S. Kenyon, J. M. Brown, and G. A. Grell

660

Implementation of CLUBB in COAMPS

Yi Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Wang

661

A Comparison of Multi- versus Single-Dynamic Core Multiphysics Ensemble Designs for Convection-Allowing Forecasting Initialized by the Multiscale EnVar Data Assimilation System

X. Wang, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and N. A. Gasperoni

Handout (9.9 MB)

662

Classification of Weather Patterns over the East Asia Region Using Clustering Analysis

Young-Jun Cho, NIMS, KMA, Seogwipo-si, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. C. Lee, B. Lim, and S. B. Kim

Handout (2.4 MB)

Development of an Online Ozone and UV Index Prediction System

663

Classification of Heat Wave Weather Patterns for Probabilistic Ensemble Medium-Range Forecasts in South Korea

Hyeon-Cheol Lee, NIMS, KMA, Seogwipo-si, Korea, Republic of (South)

664

Using a Coupled FV3GFS–FVCOM Modeling System to Improve Lake-Effect Snowfall Forecasts

David M. Wright, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and C. Jablonowski, A. Fujisaki-Manome, P. Y. Chu, E. J. Anderson, G. E. Mann, and B. M. Lofgren

Handout (4.2 MB)

665

Unified Forecast System: Considerations for Transition to Operations

Ivanka Stajner, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and T. Jensen, G. Manikin, J. J. Levit, V. Tallapragada, F. Yang, and R. Treadon

666

Implementation of Radar Data Assimilation Capabilities within Ensemble–Variational Hybrid GSI for the Stand-Alone Regional FV3-Based Convection-Allowing Forecasting System

Chong-Chi Tong, CAPS, Norman, OK; and Y. Jung, C. Liu, and M. Xue

667

A Climatology of Snow-to-Liquid Ratios in Alaska

David E. Levin, NOAA/NWS, Juneau, AK

668

The Case of Cold-Air Damming in Response to Topographical Influence Created by the Ozark Plateau

Jon Bongard, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market and J. Hunter

669

A Comparison of Boundary Layer Parameterizations and Sensitivity to Vertical Resolution with the 3-km FV3 Stand-Alone Regional Model for a Lake-Effect Snow Event

Edward Strobach, IMSG and NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and E. Aligo and J. R. Carley

670

WRF Simulation, PBL Sensitivity, and Analysis of the December 2013 New England Ice Storm

Julia M. Simonson, Univ. of Maine, Orono, ME; and S. D. Birkel, K. A. Maasch, P. A. Mayewski, B. Lyon, and A. M. Carleton

Handout (1.9 MB)

671

The 30 January 2019 Northeast U.S. Snow Squall Event: An Operational Perspective

Jonathan O'Brien, NWS Mount Holly, New Jersey, Westampton, NJ

672

Traffic Fatalities in Winter: An Evaluation of Weather Regimes and NWS Guidance during Killer Storms

Joseph Burzdak, Western Connecticut State Univeristy, Danbury, CT; and A. A. Rosenow, H. D. Reeves, and S. L. Handler

673

An Overview on the 13 March 2019 Explosive Cyclogenesis Event over Southern Colorado and the Impact-Based Decision Support Service Provided by the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Pueblo, Colorado

Klint T. Skelly, NWS, Pueblo, CO; and G. Heavener

674

Analyzing Winter Weather and Climate Trends of the Ski Resorts in North Carolina through the Use of Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) Stations

Danika Leigh Mosher, East Tennessee State Univ., Jonesborough, TN; and T. A. Joyner and I. E. Luffman

675

Environmental Controls on Banded versus Cellular Organization of Mesoscale Snow Squalls in Western South Dakota

Leanna Bender, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and A. J. French

Manuscript (410.7 kB)

Handout (4.8 MB)

676

Winter Storms and Associated Precipitation Causing Power Outages over the Province of New Brunswick, Canada

Julien Chartrand, UQAM, Montréal, Canada; and J. M. Thériault

677

Importance of Physical Parameterization for Snowfall Forecasts: Implications from a Case Study of Heavy Snowfall over the Southern Coast of Japan

Ginga Akimoto, JMA, Tokyo, Japan

678

Assessing the Predictability of WRF Precipitaiton Forecasts for the Bay Area

Paul Zechiel, San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA; and S. Chiao

680

A Climatological Analysis of Snowband Predictability in Northeast Winter Storms Including Case Studies

Mark Nissenbaum, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart

681

Improving the Snow-to-Liquid Ratio and Snowfall Forecasts in the Western United States

Michael Wessler, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Steenburgh

682

Intraseasonal Variability of Cloud Cover in Midlatitudes during Boreal Winter

Reona Satoh, Fukuoka Univ., Fukuoka, Japan; and N. Nishi and H. MUKOUGAWA

679

NOAA’s National Snowfall Analysis: Technical Description and Evaluation

683

Assimilation of GPM-Retrieved Surface Meteorology Variables for Two Winter Storms

X. Li, Univ. of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and J. Srikishen, J. B. Roberts, W. A. Petersen, and C. R. Hain

684

Evaluation of Hourly Snow-to-Liquid Ratio Algorithms for the U.S. Air Force

Christopher J. Melick, 557th Weather Wing, Offutt Air Force Base, NE; and W. T. Sedlacek, S. Augustyn, R. J. Craig, G. Brooks, D. L. Keller, S. Rentschler, E. Kuchera, C. Hoover, J. Foote, and M. A. Baxter

685

Formation and Evolution of the Strong Great Lakes New Year's Eve 2017 Mesovortex

Nathan Marsili, NOAA/NWS, Syracuse, IN

686

The Influence of Turbulence Parameterizations on the 2 March 2018 Snowstorm

Matthew T. Vaughan, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. G. Fovell

Handout (6.9 MB)

687

Characterizing and Constraining Uncertainty Associated with Surface and Boundary Layer Turbulent Fluxes in Simulations of Lake-Effect Snowfall

Justin Minder, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and W. M. Bartolini

688

Exploring the Predictability of Synoptically Induced Cold-Air Damming in the Eastern United States

Thomas Hopson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. C. Knievel and M. Frediani

689

Evaluation of Winter Weather Prediction during Extreme Snowfall Events

Michael Walters, Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT; and J. Yang, M. Koukoula, and M. Astitha

690

1-Month-Lead Predictability of Asian Summer Monsoon Indices Based on the Zonal Winds Using the APCC Multimodel Ensemble

Joong-Bae Ahn, Pusan National Univ., Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. J. Park and V. Kryjov

691

The Current Development Status of the Next Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System (JMA/MRI-CPS3). Part II

Jotaro Chiba, JMA, Tokyo, Japan

692

Subseasonal Bias and Skill in FV3 Simulations Using Two Different Physics Suites

Benjamin W. Green, CIRES, Boulder, CO; NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and S. Sun, G. A. Grell, and S. G. Benjamin

693

Progress on the Development of a Coupled Forecast System for Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction at NCEP/EMC

Bin Li, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and J. Meixner, J. Wang, D. Worthen, L. Stefanova, J. Wang, S. Saha, S. Moorthi, R. Grumbine, A. Chawla, and A. Mehra

694

A Shift Toward Probabilistic Seasonal Forecasts at The Weather Company, an IBM Business

Michael J. Ventrice, The Weather Company, Andover, MA; and J. Belanger, T. Crawford, and J. Williams

Poster 695 is now Paper 14C.4A.

695A

Early Season Weak Stratospheric Vortex Events in S2S Forecasts: Hits, Misses, and False Alarms

Andrea L. Lang, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY

696

Sensitivity of the 2012 Arctic Cyclone to Sea Ice and Atmospheric Initial Conditions

Tomer Burg, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. M. Cavallo

697

Medium-Range Predictability of Historical Extreme Precipitation Events Associated with Mid- to Upper-Tropospheric Flow Reversal

Joint Poster Session 2

Probabilistic Hydrometeorological Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis—Posters

Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Chair: Huiling Yuan, Nanjing Univ.

Cochairs: Kristie Franz, Iowa State University; Shugong Wang, NASA GSFC/SAIC; Christopher J. Melick, 557th Weather Wing

542

Thermodynamical Outlook on Machine Learning

544

Investigation of the Added Value of Using Statistically Postprocessed GEFS Ensemble Forecasts as Alternative Forcings for the WRF-Hydro National Water Model (NWM)

Michael Scheuerer, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and F. Viterbo, M. Hughes, and A. R. Thorstensen

543

The Scale Sensitivity Experiments of Precipitation Neighborhood Ensemble Probability Method

545

Merging Soil Moisture Multimodel Products Based on Dynamic Bayesian Model Averaging

Yong Chen, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing, China; and H. Yuan

548

A Multiscale Postprocessing Technique for Short-to-Long-Range Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

Babak Alizadeh, Univ. of Texas, Arlington, TX; and R. A. Limon, D. J. Seo, H. Lee, and J. D. Brown

Handout (2.1 MB)

549

Evaluation of GloFASv2 Hydrological Forecast Skill at the Global Scale

Shaun Harrigan, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom; and E. Zsoter, D. A. Lavers, L. Alfieri, C. Prudhomme, H. Cloke, D. S. Richardson, P. Salamon, E. Stephens, and F. Pappenberger

546

The Uncertainty of GFS over Eastern Asia: Error Analysis and Correction Using an Optical Flow Method

551

A Coupled Rainfall–Runoff Hydrometric Network Design Method Based on Information Theory

Wenqi Wang, Nanjing Univ., Nanjing, China; and D. Wang and Y. Wang

Sensitivity of ensemble forecast verification to model bias

547

Streamflow Forecasting Using a Long Short-Term Memory Network

550

Seasonal Forecasts of Early Summer Rainfall at Stations in South China Using Statistical Downscaling and BMA

552

How Circulation Adjustment Affects the Axial Error of the Precipitation Forecast

Multiscale Characteristics of Different-Source Perturbations and Their Interactions for Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasting during SCMREX

Assessment of the Sea-surface Temperature Predictability based on Multimodel Hindcasts

553

Reducing Bias in Flash Drought Forecasts by Optimizing Parameters in Noah-MP Multiple Parameterization Schemes

Wednesday, 15 January 2020

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Session 7A

Advances in Radar Usage for Weather Analysis and Forecasting. Part I

Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Chair: Gregory J. Stumpf, CIRA/Colorado State University and NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory

8:30 AM

7A.1

Assimilation of Dual-Pol Radar Data into a Supercell Storm with a Variational Data Assimilation Scheme

Jidong Gao, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. Pan, G. Zhang, Y. Wang, P. L. Heinselman, and C. Cui

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

7A.2

Tools to Improve Tornado Warning Performance for Supercells: Z_DR/K_DP Separation and Size-Sorting Signals

M. L. Jurewicz Sr., NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and S. Loeffler, M. R. Kumjian, M. French, and C. M. Gitro

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

7A.3

Impact of Assimilating Clear-Air Radial Velocity Observations on the Forecasting of Supercell Thunderstorm: An Observing System Simulation Experiment Study

Yongjie Huang, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang, C. Kerr, A. Mahre, T. Y. Yu, and D. J. Bodine

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

7A.4

An Analysis of Z_DRArc Characteristics in a Large Sample of Supercell Storms

Matthew B. Wilson, Univ. of Nebraska–Lincoln, Lincoln, NE; and M. S. Van Den Broeke

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

7A.5

Using Characteristics of Tornadic Debris Signatures to Estimate Tornado Intensity

Samuel Emmerson, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. E. Nelson and R. L. Thompson

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

7A.6

Probability of Detection of SPLASH Using Polarimetric Radar

Aaron M. Ward, NWSFO, Amarillo, TX; and M. R. Kumjian, S. Bieda III, and M. J. Bunkers

Recorded Presentation

Handout (7.9 MB)

Session 7B

Analysis and Forecasting of Fire Weather

Location: 151A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Cochairs: Stephen Bieda III, NWSFO; Ryan A. Lagerquist, CIMMS

8:30 AM

7B.1

From a Pyrocumulus to a Severe Thunderstorm: An Environmental Analysis of an Anomalous Southern Plains Wildfire

Kaitlin Ann Rutt, NWSFO, Amarillo, TX; and S. Bieda III, A. Ward, B. J. Simpson, T. T. Lindley, N. J. Nauslar, B. Curran, S. J. Fano, and P. J. Ware

Recorded Presentation

7B.2

Coupled Weather–Fire Model Simulations of Extreme Winds and Fire Behavior during Recent Windstorm-Driven Wildfire Events

9:00 AM

7B.3

Using North American Regional Reanalysis Composites to Identify and Forecast Fire-Effective Synoptic Features in the Southern Great Plains

Matthew R. Beitscher, MS, Saint Louis Univ., St. Louis, MO; and T. T. Lindley, C. M. Gravelle, and C. Graves

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

7B.4

Lightning-Ignited Fires in the Northwest United States and SPC Dry Thunderstorm Precipitation Thresholds

Abby E. Sebol, NWS/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK; and E. M. Leitman and M. S. Elliott

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

7B.5

High-Resolution Future Projection of U.S. Wildfire Potential Trends

Emily K. Brown, Centre College, Danville, KY; and J. Wang and Y. Feng

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

7B.6

Next-Generation OK-FIRE Modeling System

Michael D. Klatt, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 36

Advances in Data Assimilation, Verification, and Probabilistic Forecasting of Aviation Weather Hazards

Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP); and the 20th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology )

Chair: Stephanie Avey, AWC

CoChair: Stanley B. Trier, NCAR

8:30 AM

J36.1

1955–2019: How NWP Has Evolved to Improve Safety and Efficiency for Aviation (Invited Presentation)

Stan Benjamin, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Brown

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

J36.2

Development of and Implementation Strategies for the Unified Forecast System at NCEP to Assist with Forecasting Aviation Weather Hazards

Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and G. S. Manikin, J. R. Carley, and M. E. Pyle

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

J36.3

Use of Storm-Scale Ensemble Data Assimilation for Initializing the Deterministic HRRR and Use of HRRRE Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasts to Provide Probabilistic Aviation Hazard Guidance

Steve Weygandt, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and D. C. Dowell, G. Ge, T. T. Ladwig, C. Alexander, M. Hu, E. James, J. S. Kenyon, I. Jankov, T. Smirnova, J. B. Olson, and S. G. Benjamin

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

J36.4

A Commercial Airline's Use of The Weather Company/IBM's Current Condition Assimilation System for Flight Operations in the Caribbean

Joseph P. Koval, The Weather Company, Atlanta, GA; and B. Krajewski, D. Winn, and I. Rahman

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

J36.5

The Analysis of Short-Term Operational Wind Forecasts and Implications for Aircraft Operations in Terminal Areas

Timothy Bonin, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and W. J. Dupree, R. F. Ferris, D. D. Moradi, and D. Clark

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 37

Physical Interpretability in Machine Learning

Location: 260 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 26th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 19th Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; and the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) )

Cochairs: Elizabeth Satterfield, NRL; Philippe Tissot, Texas A&M Univ. - Corpus Christi

8:30 AM

J37.1

Multiresolution Cluster Analysis—Addressing Trust in Climate Classification

Derek DeSantis, LANL, Los Alamos, NM; and P. Wolfram and B. Alexandrov

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

J37.2

Understanding What Deep Learning Has Learned about Tornadoes

Ryan A. Lagerquist, CIMMS, Norman, OK; and A. McGovern, D. J. Gagne II, C. R. Homeyer, and T. M. Smith

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

J37.3

Selected Methods from Explainable AI to Improve Understanding of Neural Network Reasoning for Environmental Science Applications

Imme Ebert-Uphoff, CIRA–Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and K. Hilburn, B. A. Toms, and E. A. Barnes

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

J37.4

Emulation of Bin Microphysical Processes with Machine Learning

David John Gagne II, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. C. Chen and A. Gettelman

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

J37.5

Using Physically Interpretable Neural Networks to Discover Modes of Climate and Weather Variability

Benjamin A. Toms, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. A. Barnes and I. Ebert-Uphoff

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

J37.6

Lessons Learned Using ML for Knowledge Discovery in the Atmospheric Sciences

Amy McGovern, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Exhibit Hall (Wed)

Location: Hall A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

AM Coffee Break (Wednesday)

Location: Boston Convention and Exhibition Center

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Session 8A

Analysis and Forecasting of Mesoscale Weather Phenomena. Part I

Location: 151A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Chair: Andrew C. Winters, Univ. at Albany, SUNY

10:30 AM

8A.1

Hand Analysis in a Digital Age

Barbara Mayes Boustead, NWS, Norman, OK; and H. Wells, R. Edwards, and J. M. Boustead

Recorded Presentation

Handout (3.7 MB)

10:45 AM

8A.2

Mesoscale Processes Influencing Convective Morphology during the 26–27 April 2011 Tornado Outbreak

Manda B. Chasteen, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. E. Koch

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

8A.3

On the Changes in MCS Cold Pool Characteristics Due to Simultaneous Changes in Horizontal and Vertical Grid Spacing in WRF Runs

Brian Joseph Squitieri, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr.

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

8A.4

Sensitivity of Boundary Layer Characteristics and Related Low-Level Jet Behavior to Planetary Boundary Layer Schemes in the WRF Model for Several MCS Cases

Michael J. Garberoglio, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr.

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

8A.5

Analysis of Back-Building Convection in Simulations with a Strong Low-Level Stable Layer

Stacey M. Hitchcock, Univ. of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; and R. S. Schumacher

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

8A.6

General Features of Radar-Observed Boundary Layer Convergence Lines and Their Associated Convection over a Sharp Vegetation-Contrast Area

Yipeng Huang, Xiamen Meteorological Bureau, Xiamen, China; and Z. Meng, W. Li, L. Bai, and X. Meng

Recorded Presentation

Session 8B

Severe Weather: Predictability, Uncertainty, and Best Use of Forecast Information. Part I

Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Cochairs: Marina Astitha, Univ. of Connecticut; Malaquias Pena, SAIC and EMC/NCEP/NOAA; Bruce Telfeyan, 557 Weather Wing

10:30 AM

8B.1

Revising Hazard Intensity Information in Storm Prediction Center Outlooks: A Hazardous Weather Testbed Experiment

Race Clark III, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, P. T. Marsh, R. Schneider, and B. T. Gallo

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

8B.2

A Review of NCEP’s Convection-Allowing Model Guidance for the 20 May 2019 Southern Plains High-Risk Day

Logan C. Dawson, I.M. Systems Group, Inc. and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and A. M. Bentley, T. A. Dorian, and G. S. Manikin

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

8B.3

Extended U.S. Tornado Outbreak during Late May 2019: A Forecast of Opportunity

Victor A. Gensini, Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb, IL; and D. Gold, J. Allen, and B. S. Barrett

Recorded Presentation

8B.4

Detailed Differences Between HRRRv3 and HRRRv4 Forecasts for the 20 May 2019 Severe Weather Event

11:15 AM

8B.4A

A Comparison of the Current and Next Version of the HRRR for Some Recent High-Impact Mesoscale Events

E. Szoke, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and C. Alexander, J. Brown, and T. Alcott

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

8B.5

Using an Improved Object-Based Probabilistic Methodology to Optimize CAM Ensemble Design for Severe Weather Forecasting Applications

Andrew C. Wilkins, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. Johnson and X. Wang

11:45 AM

8B.6

Compared to What? Establishing Environmental Baselines for Tornado Warning Skill

Alexandra K. Anderson-Frey, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and H. E. Brooks

Recorded Presentation

Session 8C

Advances in Cloud- and Convection-Resolving Numerical Weather Models. Part I

Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Cochairs: Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER; May Wong, NCAR

10:30 AM

8C.1

Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Model Development

C. Alexander, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and D. C. Dowell, M. Hu, J. Olson, T. Smirnova, T. Ladwig, S. Weygandt, J. S. Kenyon, E. James, H. Lin, G. Grell, G. Ge, T. Alcott, S. Benjamin, J. M. Brown, M. D. Toy, R. Ahmadov, A. Back, J. D. Duda, M. B. Smith, J. A. Hamilton, B. D. Jamison, I. Jankov, and D. D. Turner

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

8C.2

Development of a Real-Time, HRRR-Like SAR-FV3 System at NOAA/ESRL/GSD

Jeff Beck, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CSU/CIRA, Boulder, CO; and G. Ketefian, C. Alexander, L. Reames, G. Gayno, D. Heinzeller, L. Pan, T. Smirnova, J. Purser, D. Jovic, T. Black, and J. R. Carley

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

8C.3

How Do Forecasts from WRF-ARW and Stand-Alone Regional FV3 Compare?

John M. Brown, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and J. Beck, G. Ketefian, D. Heinzeller, B. D. Jamison, T. G. Smirnova, J. Olson, J. Kenyon, S. Weygandt, C. Alexander, G. A. Grell, and S. Benjamin

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

8C.4

The Impacts of Global Convection-Permitting Resolution across Scales: From Tropical Convection to Global Subseasonal Teleconnections

Nicholas Weber, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

8C.5

IBM GRAF—Scale-Aware Convective Forecast Evaluation and Improvements

Brett A. Wilt, The Weather Company, Andover, MA; and W. Wang

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

8C.6

Revisiting Sensitivity to Horizontal Grid Spacing in Convection-Allowing Models over the Central-Eastern United States Using a Large Dataset

Craig S. Schwartz, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. A. Sobash

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 42

Statistical Methods for Optimized Aviation Hazard Detection and Prediction

Location: 206A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; and the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) )

Chair: Ken Stone, NCAR

CoChair: Alex P. Korner, NOAA/NWS/NCEP

10:30 AM

J42.1

Statistical Methods for Diagnosing Aviation Hazards and Their Likelihood from Numerical Weather Prediction Models: Past, Present, and Future (Invited Presentation)

Judy E. Ghirardelli, NOAA/National Weather Service, Silver Spring, MD

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

J42.2

Gridded LAMP Ceiling Height and Visibility Guidance for Alaska

Adam D. Schnapp, CIRA, Silver Spring, MD; and B. Glahn, J. E. Ghirardelli, and A. Bogusz

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

J42.3

Development of LAMP Convection and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Forecast Guidance for Alaska and Beyond

Jerome Charba, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. G. Samplatsky, P. E. Shafer, J. E. Ghirardelli, and A. J. Kochenash

Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.4 MB)

11:30 AM

J42.4

Satellite Cloud Vertical Cross-Section Products and User-Engaged Improvement for Aviation Weather Applications

Y. J. Noh, CIRA, Fort Collins, CO; CIRA, Fort Collins, CO; and S. D. Miller, J. M. Haynes, C. J. Seaman, J. H. Kim, and A. Heidinger

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

J42.5

Volcanic Ash Forecast Verification Using HYSPLIT and Satellite Ash Observations Identified by VOLCAT

Allison M. Ring, ARL, College Park, MD; Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies, College Park, MD; and A. Crawford, B. J. B. Stunder, J. Sieglaff, and M. J. Pavolonis

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Lunch Break (Wednesday)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Session 9A

Advances in Cloud- and Convection-Resolving Numerical Weather Models. Part II

Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Cochairs: Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER; Glen Romine, NCAR

1:30 PM

9A.1

Evaluating the Boundary Layer Environment and Convective Storm Evolution from 3-km, Limited-Area FV3 Simulations at the 2019 Hazardous Weather Testbed

Tomer Burg, EMC, College Park, MD; and L. C. Dawson, G. Manikin, J. R. Carley, and B. T. Blake

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

9A.2

Using a Stochastic Parameter Perturbation to Represent Process-Based Uncertainty in a Microphysics Parameterization

Maria Frediani, NCAR-RAL, Boulder, CO; and G. Thompson, J. Berner, J. A. Otkin, S. M. Griffin, and F. Kong

2:00 PM

9A.3

Comparison of Error Growth Characteristics in Convection-Permitting Ensembles

May Wong, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. S. Schwartz and G. S. Romine

Recorded Presentation

9A.4

Convection Permitting Lake-Coupled Simulations of the Lake Victoria Basin

2:15 PM

9A.4A

Evaluation of Multiple Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes in Southeast U.S. Cold Season Severe Thunderstorm Environments

Ariel E. Cohen, NWS, Miami, FL; and S. M. Cavallo, M. C. Coniglio, H. E. Brooks, I. L. Jirak, and A. E. Gerard

Recorded Presentation

Session 9B

Numerical Modeling of Wildfire and Wildfire Impacts

Location: 151A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Cochairs: Stephen Bieda III, NWSFO; Ryan A. Lagerquist, CIMMS

9B.1

The 2017 Thomas Wildfire: Observations and Coupled Weather–Wildland Fire Modeling of Both Wind-Driven and Plume-Driven Fire Behavior during an Extended Santa Ana Event

1:30 PM

9B.2

Gridded Fuel Moisture Content Prediction System Utilizing Machine Learning Models Based on MODIS Satellite Observations

Tyler C. McCandless, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. Kosovic, W. Petzke, P. A. Jimenez, S. Massie, A. Anderson, A. DeCastro, and S. E. Haupt

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

9B.3

A Wildland Fire Spotting Parameterization for the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Timothy W Juliano, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. E. B. Frediani, B. Kosovic, J. C. Knievel, P. Jimenez Munoz, and D. Muñoz-Esparza

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

9B.4A

Taking Advantage of Machine Learning Methods to Better Represent Fire Radiative Power (FRP) for Smoke and Weather Forecasting Models

Christina Kumler, NOAA/ESRL and CIRES, Boulder, CO; NOAA, Boulder, CO; and S. Maksimovic, J. Stewart, R. Ahmadov, and M. Govett

9B.4

Southern California's Woolsey and Hill Fires: An Analysis of Fire Weather Conditions and High-Resolution Model Output to Improve Weather Forecasts and Decision Support Services

Session 9C

Severe Weather: Predictability, Uncertainty, and Best Use of Forecast Information. Part II

Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Cochairs: Marina Astitha, Univ. of Connecticut; Malaquias Pena, SAIC and EMC/NCEP/NOAA; Bruce Telfeyan, 557 Weather Wing

1:30 PM

9C.1

Dynamics and Predictability of Sting-Jet Storm

Lea Eisenstein, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and F. Pantillon and P. Knippertz

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

9C.2

Developing an Accumulating Hail Climatology for the National Weather Service in Hanford, California

Colin McKellar, NWS, Hanford, CA

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.6 MB)

2:00 PM

9C.3

A New Ensemble Simulation Analysis Considering Water Vapor Update History for Line-Shaped Rainband Heavy Rainfall Forecasting

Nana Kuroda, Kyoto Univ., Kyoto city, Japan; and K. Yamaguchi and E. Nakakita

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

9C.4

Vorticity Power Law in a Simulated Tornadic Supercell

Huaqing Cai, U.S. Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, NM; and L. Bai and Z. Meng

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

PM Coffee Break (Wednesday)

Location: Boston Convention and Exhibition Center

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Session 10A

Advances in Radar Usage for Weather Analysis and Forecasting. Part II

Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Chair: Gregory J. Stumpf, CIRA/Colorado State University and NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory

3:00 PM

10A.1

Is a Real-Time Surface Precipitation Type Product Based on Observations from a Radar Network Any Good? a 5-yr Analysis from the United Kingdom

Ben S. Pickering, NERC, Leeds, U.K.; and R. R. Neely III and S. Best

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

10A.2

A New Long-Term Radar Reflectivity Nowcasting Method Based on DeepRNN

Xufeng Guo, Shanghai Em-Data Technology Co., Ltd., Shanghai, China; and Z. Liu, Y. Meng, G. Yao, Y. Xiao, Z. Yan, and C. Lu

Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM

10A.3

Impacts of Assimilating WSR-88D Radar Observations on Snowbands Embedded within an Intense Northeast U.S. Cyclone

Keenan R. Fryer, Stony Brook Univ., Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

10A.4

A Meteorologist Embedded with Engineers: Bringing NWS User Perspectives to the Design of Future Operational Weather Radar Systems

Jami B. Boettcher, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and F. Nai

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.7 MB)

Handout (4.2 MB)

Session 10B

Analysis and Forecasting of Mesoscale Weather Phenomena. Part II

Location: 151A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Chair: Andrew C. Winters, Univ. at Albany, SUNY

3:00 PM

10B.1

Mesoscale Modification of Precipitation during Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers by Frontal Cyclogenesis

Andrew C. Martin, Portland State Univ., Portland, OR; Portland State Univ., Portland, OR; and A. C. Michaelis

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

10B.2

Diabatic Contributions to the Formation and Evolution of Mesoscale Frontal Waves in Atmospheric River Events along the U.S. West Coast

Allison C. Michaelis, SIO/Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, La Jolla, CA; and A. C. Martin, B. K. Kawzenuk, and F. M. Ralph

Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM

10B.3

A Case Study of the Physical Processes Associated with the Atmospheric River Initial Condition Sensitivity from an Adjoint Model

Reuben Demirdjian, SIO/Univ. of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA

Recorded Presentation

10B.4

Terrain Effects on Frontogenesis and Snowfall across the Southern Appalachians

Joint Session 51

Challenges in Communication and Decision Support throughout the Research-to-Operations Nexus

Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP); the 10th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; and the Special Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice )

Chair: Gregory J. Stumpf, CIRA/Colorado State University and NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory

3:00 PM

J51.1

A Summary of the Research Operations Nexus (RON) Meetups at NWA and AMS

Gregory J. Stumpf, CIRA/Colorado State University and NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory, Norman, OK

Recorded Presentation

J51.2

Decision Support—What We Say and How We Say It Makes a Difference: A Look at Effective Communication toward Appropriate Partner Preparedness

3:15 PM

J51.2A

Decision Calendar for West Coast Water Management: Connecting Science and Interrelated Decisions for Water Supply, Flooding, Fisheries, and Coastal Management

Andrea J. Ray, NOAA/Earth System Research Lab, Boulder, CO; and L. E. Johnson

Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM

J51.3

Communicating Rip Current Risk with a Virtual Reality Video Game

Jase Bernhardt, Hofstra Univ., Hempstead, NY; and G. Dusek and A. Hesse

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

J51.4

Updates to the Winter Storm Severity Index for 2019/20

Joshua Kastman, NOAA/NWS, College Park, MD; CIRES, Boulder, CO; and J. A. Nelson Jr.

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 55

High-Performance Computing for Numerical Weather Prediction. Part I

Location: 212 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the Sixth Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; and the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) )

Cochairs: Timothy S. Sliwinski, Group NIRE; Kandis Boyd, OAR; Ryan A. Lagerquist, CIMMS

3:00 PM

J55.1

HPC Limitations in Running Global Cloud-Resolving Weather Prediction Models

Mark W. Govett, NOAA/ESRL Global Systems Division, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

J55.2

Improving the Performance and Scalability of the Colorado Fire Prediction System (CO-FPS) Using Dynamic Cloud Resources

James Cowie, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Petzke, J. Boehnert, D. Brucker, N. Chartier, and J. Knievel

Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM

J55.3

Computational Resources Optimization in the NCEP Coupled Atmospheric Wave–Chemistry Global Ensemble Forecast System

Dingchen Hou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and X. Xue, W. Kolczynski Jr., B. Fu, Y. Zhu, J. H. Alves, J. Meixner, L. Pan, and J. Kain

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

J55.4

New Capabilities in FV3GFS Write Grid Component

Jun Wang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and D. Jovic, B. Liu, W. Meng, H. Y. Chuang, J. J. Levit, and A. Chawla

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Wed)

Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Poster Session 3

30 WAF/26 NWP Wednesday Poster Session

Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

1182

Wind Profiler and Surface Observations of Easterly Gap Flow and Precipitation in the Columbia River Gorge

Allen B. White, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and D. J. Gottas

1183

Application of Numerical Models in Visibility Forecasting for Airports over Taiwan

Yi-Chiu Lin, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and L. J. Chen and J. P. Chen

1184

Forecasting of Snowfall on the Southern Edge of the U.S. Snowfall Region in South-Central Texas

1185

Analysis of the Relationship of Waterspout Day Frequency in the Florida Keys to Synoptic-Scale Patterns

Andrew Devanas, NWS, Key West, FL; and L. Stefanova

Handout (19.3 MB)

1186

Synoptic and Mesoscale Characteristics of Extreme Heat Events in Southern California

Brandt D. Maxwell, NOAA/NWS, San Diego, CA

1187

Squall Lines and Extreme Rainfall in the Victoria, Australia Region

Stacey M. Hitchcock, Univ. of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; and T. P. Lane

1188

Observations of Sea–Land-Breeze Circulation in Surface Wind Time Series

Jewon Kim, Gangneung-Wonju National Univ., Gangneung, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. L. Kang

1191

A Climatology of High-Non-Thunderstorm Winds in the Tennessee Valley

Kathleen M. Magee, National Weather Service, Huntsville, AL; and K. D. White

Handout (1.5 MB)

1189

A Study of WRF-Generated Lightning Strike Forecasts for the Southern Sierra Nevada

1192

Ralph Johnson, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO

Manuscript (5.1 MB)

1190

Assimilating Ocean Observations from Autonomous Drones into a Regional Weather Model

1193

The Influence of Coastline on the Orientation of Squall Lines

Hongjun Liu, Peking Univ., Beijing, China

1194

The Mechanism and Predictability of an Elevated Convection Initiation Event in a Weak-Lifting Environment in Central-Eastern China

Murong Zhang, Peking Univ., Beijing, China; and Z. Meng

1195

Warm-Sector Heavy Rainfall in Southern China and Its WRF Forecast Evaluation: A Low-Level Jet Perspective

Murong Zhang, Peking Univ., Beijing, China; and Z. Meng

1196

Differences between Well-Forecast and Poorly Forecast Bow-Echo Events in the WRF

Ezio Luca Mauri, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr.

1197

Differentiating Convective Cases with Upscale Growth into MCSs and Those without Upscale Growth during PECAN

Zachary A. Hiris, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr.

1198

The Instability in and Trigger Mechanism of an Extreme Precipitation Event in the Yili River Valley on 31 July 2016

Liu Jing, Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi, China

1199

A Novel Approach to Stratifying the Precipitation Time Series: A Precipitation Climatology for Montréal, Québec

Kai Melamed-Turkish, McGill Univ., Montreal, Canada; and E. H. Atallah and J. R. Gyakum

Handout (2.9 MB)

1200

Sounding Characteristics and Dual-Pol Signatures of Severe Hail Events across Central California

Andrew Bollenbacher, NWS, Hanford, CA

1201

Using a Rotational Shear Nomogram to Classify Ambiguous Tornadoes Observed in Central California

Kristian Mattarochia, NWS, Hanford, CA

1202

Analysis of Mesoscale Characteristics of a Torrential Rain in Hubei Province

Xianting Zhao, CMA, Wuhan, China; and X. Wang, J. Wang, and X. Wang

1203

The Analysis on the Microphysics Characteristic of the Cloud Clusters Associated with the Eastward-Propagating MCV along the East Asia Monsoon Front

Chao Li, Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA, Wuhan, China

1204

Characteristics Analysis on Heavy Rain over the Yangtze River Valley Induced by the Eastward-Moving Cloud Clusters from the Tibetan Plateau

Wang xiaofang, Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA, Wuhan, China

1205

Blending Technology of Radar Extrapolation and Mesoscale Numerical Prediction Based on Python

Junchao Wang, Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research, Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA，Wuhan, Wuhan, China; and Z. Wang and A. Lai

1206

Statistical Analysis of the Doppler Velocity Correction of Ka-Band Cloud Radar and Microrain Radar Measurements

Xia Wan, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Adiministration, Wuhan, Wuhan, Hubei Province, China; and B. Xi

1207

The Raindrop Size Distributions for Heavy Rainfall during the Mei-Yu Season in the Middle of China

Zhikang Fu Sr., Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA, Wuhan, Wuhan, China; and X. Dong, L. Zhou, and W. Cui

1208

Microphysical Process Study of Mei-Yu Precipitation Events over Central China

Lingli Zhou, Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA, Wuhan, Wuhan, China; and X. Dong, Z. Fu Sr., B. Wang, L. Leng, B. Xi, and C. Cui

1209

The Synoptic Patterns Associated with Extreme Precipitation over the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River during the Mei-Yu Season and Its Application in Model Assessment

Yang Hu, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan, China, Wuhan, China

1210

Characteristics of Ice Cloud Precipitation of Warm Season Mesoscale Convective Systems over the Great Plains

Jingjing Tian, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and X. Dong and B. Xi

1211

Multiscale Spatiotemporal Variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Stationary Frontal System: Observation versus Its Representation in the GFDL HiRAM

Yana Li, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Guangzhou, China; The Chinese Univ. of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and Y. Deng, S. Yang, H. Zhang, Y. Ming, and Z. Shen

1212

The Impact of Tropical Cyclones and Monsoonal Circulations on Floods in the Grand Canyon

Brent Roberts, Brewer High School, Maine, Brewer, ME; and S. Jain

1213

Resolving Sahelian Thunderstorms Improves Midlatitude Weather Forecasts

Gregor Pante, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and P. Knippertz

Handout (2.1 MB)

1214

An Objective Measure of TC Size Using the Evolution of the Area Of Closed Isobars—Algorithm, Resulting Climatology, and Physical Insights

Thomas B. McKenzie III, 21st Operational Weather Squadron, APO, AE; and R. E. Hart

1215

Impact of Vertical Wind Shear on Gravity Wave Propagation in the Land–Sea-Breeze Circulation at the Equator

Yu Du, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Guangzhou, China; and R. Rotunno and F. Zhang

1216

Cirrus Cloud-Top Height Estimation Using Geostationary Satellite Split-Window Measurements Trained with CALIPSO and CloudSat Data

Noriyuki Nishi, Fukuoka Univ., Fukuoka, Japan; and A. Hamada and H. Hirose

Handout (1.1 MB)

1217

Influence of Environmental Winds on Land–Sea-Breeze Afternoon Thunderstorms over Western Puerto Rico

Angelie T. Nieves Jiménez, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Ríos-Berríos, K. Werner, and K. Maull

1218

On the Rainfall and Temperature Forecast Skill for a Tropical Andean Mountain Area in Northern South America Using Different Operational Weather Forecast Strategies: Role of the Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall on the Success of Data Assimilation

Mauricio Zapata, Sistema de Alerta Temprana del Valle de Aburrá (SIATA), Medellín, Colombia; and G. Guzmán, C. D. Hoyos, J. C. Hernández Díaz, L. I. Ceballos, S. M. López Zapata, and M. Guarin Vargas

1219

Understanding Rapid Intensity Changes in Official Hurricane Intensity Forecast Error Distributions

Benjamin C. Trabing, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. M. Bell

1220

Development and Evaluation of a Multimodel Global Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Product

Alan Brammer, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and A. B. Schumacher and K. D. Musgrave

1221

Numerical Model Forecast Tracks during Hurricane Florence (2018)

Frank P. Colby Jr., Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and A. B. Penny and M. Barlow

1222

Developing the RAP/HRRR Physics Suite to Improve Tropical Shallow-Cumuli Structures across the Gray Zone

J. Olson, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. Kenyon, J. Brown, W. M. Angevine, H. Vagasky, and G. Grell

1223

The Meteorology of the November 2018 Camp Fire

Clifford F. Mass, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Ovens

1224

Wildfire Impact on Environmental Thermodynamics and Severe Convective Storms

Yuwei Zhang, PNNL, Richland, WA; and J. Fan, T. Logan, Z. Li, and C. R. Homeyer

1225

Identification of Forecast Biases to Improve Fire Danger Forecasts in Colorado

Brandon K. Cohen, Univ. of Louisiana, Monroe, Monroe, LA; and P. T. Schlatter and L. Kriederman

Poster 1227 is now Paper 9B.4A.

1228

A Polarimetric Radar Forward Operator and Application for Convective Storm Initiation

X. Li, Univ. of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and J. R. Mecikalski

1229

Dual-Polarization Radar Retrievals of Coastal Pacific Northwest Raindrop Size Distribution Parameters Using Random Forest Regression

Robert Conrick, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. Zagrodnik and C. F. Mass

1226

Developing a Prescribed Fire Forecasting Algorithm for the Southeast United States

1230

Linear Least Squares Derivative Gradients of Single-Radar Products and Their Applications for Severe Weather

Thea Sandmael, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and B. R. Smith

1231

The Assimilation of Dual-Phased-Array Weather Radar Observations on Short-Range Convective Forecasts

James Taylor, RIKEN, Kobe, Japan; and G. Y. Lien, S. Satoh, and T. Miyoshi

1233

Evolution of Single- and Dual-Polarization Radar Signatures Associated with QLCS Mesovortices

Olivia F. McCauley, NWC REU Program, Norman, OK; and C. M. Kuster, V. N. Mahale, and T. Shuur

1234

Operational Utility of the Depth and Width of Three-Body Scatter Spikes

Keith D. Sherburn, NOAA/NWS, Rapid City, SD; and J. Chamberlain

1235

Inferring Severe Convective Wind Gust Probabilities in Florida from NEXRAD Storm Structure Data

Madeline R. Frank, Climate Forecast Applications Network, Atlanta, GA; and J. Miller and V. Toma

1236

All-Sky Radiance Assimilation for COAMPS-TC Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Prediction

Qingyun Zhao, NRL, Monterey, CA; and N. Baker, Y. Jin, J. Doyle, R. G. Nystrom, Y. Zhang, X. Chen, C. Hartman, and F. Zhang

1232

A Global Radial Wind Data Assimilation OSSE with the GFS

1237

Assimilation of CYGNSS Wind Speed for Tropical Convection during 2018 MJO Onset

X. Li, Univ. of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and T. J. Lang and J. R. Mecikalski

1238

Understanding of Convection Genesis by an Urban Meteorological Model Based on Large Eddy Simulation

Kosei Yamaguchi, Kyoto Univ., Uji, Kyoto, Japan; and T. Tsuchihashi, D. Konishi, and E. Nakakita

1239

Modeling Convection with a "Scale Aware" Tiedtke Cumulus Parameterization Scheme at Kilometer Scales

Wei Wang, NCAR, Boulder, CO

1240

Results of Varying Vertical Grid Resolution and Microphysics in 3-km FV3 Stand-Alone Regional Runs

Eric Aligo, EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA and I.M. Systems Group, Inc., College Park, MD; and E. Strobach, Y. Lin, L. C. Dawson, J. R. Carley, and J. S. Kain

1241

Test of a Prognostic Cloud Cover in the FV3GFS

Ruiyu Sun, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and IMSG, College Park, MD; and J. S. Kain and J. Han

1242

Diurnal Cycles of Mei-Yu Rainfall Simulated over Eastern China: Sensitivity to Cumulus Convective Parameterization

Xi Lu, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Guangzhou, China

1244

Characterization of the Atmospheric Conditions and Cloudiness Leading to Extreme Rainfall Events over the Northern South America Andean Region: An Approach Using High=Resolution Data from GOES-ABI and ERA-5

Carlos Andrés Bonilla, Sistema de Alerta Temprana del Valle de Aburrá (SIATA), Medellín, Colombia; Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Medellín., Medellín, Colombia; and C. D. Hoyos

1245

Possible Sting Jet Development in Hurricanes Michael and Leslie (2018) Postextratropical Transition

Deirdre Dolan, NOAA, College Park, MD; and M. J. Folmer, J. M. Sienkiewicz, and H. Fort

1246

Declarative Surface Station Plots: The Next Stop on the GEMPAK Replacement Roadmap for MetPy

Maxwell Grover, UCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. M. May and Z. Bruick

1247

The Python-Based MPMC Test Suite for NOAA Operational Data Assimilation Systems (GSI/EnKF)

G. Ge, CIRES and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and M. Hu, C. Zhou, and D. Stark

1248

A Python-Based Quantitative Precipitation Estimate over Alaska Using Rain Gauge Kriging and the HRRR-AK Precipitation Forecast

Brett T. Hoover, CIMSS, Madison, WI; and J. A. Otkin, E. Petrescu, and E. Niebuhr

1243

Automated Data Analysis of Near-Real-Time GNSS-PWV Determination Using a Kalman Filter: The Central of Thailand

Poster 1249 is now Paper J51.2A.

1245

Terrestrial Cloud Fraction derived from GOES-R Satellite

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Exhibit Hall Networking Reception

Location: Hall A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

6:30 PM-9:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Centennial Celebration (Centennial)

Location: Ballroom East (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Thursday, 16 January 2020

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

Panel Discussion 1

Historical Perspectives on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (Centennial)

Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Moderators: Martin A. Baxter, Central Michigan University; Andrew C. Winters, Univ. at Albany, SUNY

Panelists: Harold E. Brooks, Univ. of Oklahoma; Kristine C. Harper, Florida State Univ.; Jonathan E. Martin, University of Wisconsin–Madison; Stan Benjamin, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory; Pamela Heinselman, NSSL

8:30 AM

Speaker 5 Pamela Heinselman

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

Speaker 4 Stan Benjamin

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

Speaker 3 Jonathan Martin

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

Speaker 2 Kristine Harper

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

Speaker 1 Harold Brooks

Session 11A

Integrative Analysis of East Asia Monsoon Frontal System through Observational and Modeling Efforts

Location: 258C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Cochairs: Brandt D. Maxwell, NOAA/NWS; Chunguang Cui, Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA,Wuhan; Xiquan Dong, Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA,Wuhan

8:30 AM

11A.1

Investigation of Mei-Yu Frontal Systems through the Integrative Analysis of Ground-Based, Aircraft, and Satellite Observations

Chunguang Cui, Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA,Wuhan, Wuhan, China; and X. Dong

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

11A.2

Characteristics of Mei-Yu Season Mesoscale Convective Systems over Central-Eastern China

Wenjun Cui, The Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and B. Xi and X. Dong

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

11A.3

Elucidating the Mesoscale Convective Clouds in East Asia Using Both Geostationary Satellite and Weather Radar Measurements

Jianping Guo, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and D. Chen

9:15 AM

11A.4

Effect of the Choice of Model Microphysics Scheme on Heavy Mei-Yu Rainfall Simulations

Zhimin Zhou, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan City, China; and Y. Deng, Y. Hu, Z. Kang Jr., C. Cui, and X. Dong

Session 11B

Numerical Modeling for Recent Field Campaigns and Testbeds

Location: 258B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Chair: Aaron J. Hill, Colorado State Univ.

8:30 AM

11B.1

Biases in Warm-Season WRF Forecasts: North America verus Subtropical South America

Jeremiah Otero Piersante, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher and K. L. Rasmussen

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

11B.2

Using Doppler–Lidar Measurements of Recurrent Diurnal Marine Air Intrusion Flows into the Columbia River Basin to Characterize and Quantify HRRR Errors

Robert M. Banta, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and Y. Pichugina, W. A. Brewer, A. Choukulkar, K. Lantz, J. B. Olson, J. S. Kenyon, H. J. S. Fernando, M. T. Stoelinga, J. Sharp, L. S. Darby, D. D. Turner, and S. Baidar

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

11B.3

Fog Prediction by COAMPS during the C-FOG Field Experiment

Sasa Gabersek, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA; and D. D. Flagg, J. D. Doyle, I. Gultepe, H. J. S. Fernando, E. Pardyjak, C. E. Dorman, Q. Wang, S. Hoch, T. Bullock, and R. Y. W. Chang

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

11B.4

Quantifying Microphysical Parameterization Uncertainty in Convection-Permitting Forecasts of the 10–12 December 2013 Lake-Effect Snow Event

W. Massey Bartolini, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. R. Minder

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 59

High-Performance Computing for Numerical Weather Prediction. Part II

Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP); and the Sixth Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate )

Cochairs: Ryan A. Lagerquist, CIMMS; Kandis Boyd, OAR; Timothy S. Sliwinski, Group NIRE

8:30 AM

J59.1

Accelerating the Cloud Scheme within the Unified Model for CPU–GPU-Based High-Performance Computing Systems

Wei Zhang, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and M. Xu, M. Morales Hernandez, M. R. Norman, S. Mahajan, K. J. Evans, A. Hill, and B. Shipway

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

J59.2

SAR FV3-Based Storm-Scale Ensemble Implementation and Testing for the 2019 HWT and FFaIR Experiments

Timothy A. Supinie, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. Zhang, M. Xue, K. Brewster, K. W. Thomas, and F. Kong

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

J59.3

MPI Redecomposition and Remapping Algorithms Used within a Multigrid Approach to Modeling of the Background Error Covariance for High-Resolution Data Assimilation

Miodrag Rancic, IMSG, College Park, MD; and M. Pondeca, R. J. Purser, and J. R. Carley

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

J59.4

High-Resolution Numerical Weather Simulation with a Large Domain for West Japan Extreme Heavy Rainfall Events during July 2018

Tsutao Oizumi, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, kanagawa, Japan; MRI, Ibaraki, Japan; and K. Saito, L. Duc, and J. Ito

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

Exhibit Hall (Thurs)

Location: Hall A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

9:30 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

Exhibit Hall Breakfast

Location: Hall A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

Session 12A

Advanced Physics and Physics Interoperability in Community Models

Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Cochairs: Jessie C. Carman, OAR; James D. Doyle, NRL

10:30 AM

12A.1

WGNE Systematic Error Survey Results Summary

Carolyn Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and K. D. Williams and A. Zadra

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

12A.2

SCREAM: A New Performance Portable Global Storm-Resolving Atmosphere Model

Aaron S. Donahue, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and P. Caldwell

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

12A.3

Physics Interoperability as a Strategy for Advancing NOAA’s Unified Forecast System Physics Suites

Ligia Bernardet, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, NOAA/GSD, and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and G. J. Firl, D. Heinzeller, L. Carson, M. Zhang, J. Schramm, and L. Nance

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

12A.4

Convectively Coupled Equatorial Wave Simulations Using the ECMWF IFS and the NOAA GFS Cumulus Convection Schemes in the NOAA GFS Model

Lisa K. Bengtsson, CIRES, Boulder, CO; NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. Dias, M. Gehne, P. Bechtold, J. S. Whitaker, L. Magnusson, J. W. Bao, S. A. Michelson, P. Pegion, S. N. Tulich, and G. N. Kiladis

11:30 AM

12A.5

Process-Oriented Diagnostics to Inform the Physics Suite of Future GFS Implementations using NOAA's Unified Forecast System

Weiwei Li, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Bernardet, M. Zhang, L. Pan, M. Harrold, J. Wolff, J. K. Henderson, T. Hertneky, L. R. Blank, G. J. Firl, M. B. Ek, J. Dudhia, T. Jensen, Z. Wang, and L. Nance

11:45 AM

12A.6

Evaluation of New Monin–Obukhov and Bulk Richardson Parameterizations of the Surface Layer in Large Eddy Simulations

Michael S. Buban, NOAA/ARL/ATDD and CIMMS, Oak Ridge, TN; and T. R. Lee

Recorded Presentation

Session 12B

Advances in Probabilistic Forecasting

Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Chair: Christopher McCray, McGill Univ.

10:30 AM

12B.1

The Weather Prediction Center: A Bridge between Ensemble Information and Decision-Makers

David Novak, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

12B.2

Evaluation of a Probabilistic Subfreezing Road Temperature Nowcast Using Machine Learning

Shawn Handler, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and H. D. Reeves

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

12B.3

Utilizing the High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) to Produce Calibrated Probabilistic Thunderstorm Guidance at the Storm Prediction Center

David Harrison, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (900.6 kB)

11:15 AM

12B.4

Optimizing a Sensitivity-Based Ensemble Subsetting Technique for Convective-Scale Forecasts

Austin A. Coleman, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and B. C. Ancell

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

12B.5

The MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) for Nordic Weather Conditions: Recent Results in Research and Applications

Jørn Kristiansen, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway; and U. Andrae, I. L. Frogner, M. Ø. Køltzow, A. M. Olsen, M. Partio, I. A. Seierstad, A. T. Singleton, and O. Vignes

Recorded Presentation

12B.6

Spread-Skill Relationship in the Canadian Regional Ensemble Prediction System

11:45 AM

12B.6A

Assessing the Robustness of Microphysical Process Representation in an Adaptive Habit Model by Means of Stochastic Parameterizations

Lauriana C. Gaudet, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. Sulia

Recorded Presentation

Session 12C

Analysis and Forecasting for Recent Field Campaigns and Testbeds

Location: 258B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Chair: Christopher J. Melick, 557th Weather Wing

10:30 AM

12C.1

The Influence of DACCIWA Radiosonde Data on the Quality of ECMWF Analyses and Forecasts

Roderick van der Linden, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and P. Knippertz, A. H. Fink, B. Ingleby, M. Maranan, and A. Benedetti

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

12C.2

High-Frequency Mobile Soundings in Convective Environments during RELAMPAGO: Overview and Preliminary Findings

Russ S. Schumacher, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and D. A. Hence, N. R. Kelly, K. A. Kosiba, S. W. Nesbitt, R. J. Trapp, and J. Wurman

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

12C.3

Evaluation of Multiple Analysis Systems in the 2019 HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment

Israel L. Jirak, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK; and N. A. Dahl, K. Hoogewind, B. Roberts, K. H. Knopfmeier, A. J. Clark, C. Alexander, J. R. Carley, and M. C. Coniglio

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

12C.4

Application of Ensemble Sensitivity during the AR-Recon 2019 Experiment

Ryan D. Torn, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

12C.5

Impact of Turbulence and Small-Scale Convective Cells on Heavy Orographic Precipitation during the OLYMPEX Field Experiment

Na Zhou, Stony Brook Univ., Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle and A. Naeger

Recorded Presentation

12C.6

A Review of NCAR/MMM's Forecasting Support for Recent Atmospheric Chemistry Field Campaigns

Session 12D

Analysis and Forecasting of Tropical Weather

Location: 258C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Cochairs: Clark Evans, Univ. of Wisconsin–Milwaukee; Benjamin C. Trabing, Colorado State Univ.

10:30 AM

12D.1

Recent Progress in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting at the National Hurricane Center

John P. Cangialosi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL; and E. S. Blake, D. A. Zelinsky, M. DeMaria, and E. Rappaport

10:45 AM

12D.2

The Predictability of Formation, Intensity, and Rainfall for Hurricane Barry

Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and A. M. Bentley and L. C. Dawson

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

12D.4

A Climatology of Indirect Tropical Cyclone Interactions

Kevin C. Prince, Univ. of Wisconsin–Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and C. Evans

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

12D.3

Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change during Trough Interaction

Kristen L. Corbosiero, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. Peirano and B. H. Tang

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

12D.5

Mechanisms Contributing to the Heavy Rainfall Associated with a Mei-Yu Front near Taiwan

Jennifer C. DeHart, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. M. Bell

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

12D.6

High-Resolution Reanalysis for Hurricanes Surface Forcing

Hao Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle

Joint Session 66

Machine Learning for Subgrid Parameterization in Weather and Climate Models

Location: 156BC (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 19th Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP); and the Events )

Cochairs: Ryan A. Lagerquist, CIMMS; Christiane Jablonowski, University of Michigan; Carlos F. Gaitan, Arable Labs, Inc.

10:30 AM

J66.1

Building a Hierarchy of Hybrid, Neural Network Parameterizations of Convection

Tom Beucler, Univ. of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; Columbia Univ., New York, CA; and P. Gentine, M. S. Pritchard, S. Rasp, and V. Eyring

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

J66.2

Data-Driven Superparameterization Using Deep Learning: Experimentations with a Multiscale Lorenz 96 Model

Pedram Hassanzadeh, Rice University, Houston, TX; and A. Chattopadhyay, A. Subel, and K. Palem

11:00 AM

J66.3

Machine Learning Parameterization of the Surface Layer: Integration with WRF

David John Gagne II, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. C. McCandless, B. Kosovic, A. DeCastro, R. D. Loft, S. E. Haupt, and B. Yang

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

J66.4

Data-Driven Approaches for Simulating Rainfall in Climate Models

R. Saravanan, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and J. Yang, M. Jun, C. Schumacher, J. Wang, and R. K. W. Wang

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

J66.6

Utilizing Machine Learning to Replace Physical Parameterization Schemes: How Do Different Techniques Compare?

Garrett Limon, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and C. Jablonowski

Recorded Presentation

J66.5

Toward Subgrid-Scale Parameterizations Using a Superresolution Generative Adversarial Network

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

Lunch Break (Thursday)

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

Session 13A

Advances in Satellite Usage for Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Chair: Stephen Bieda III, NWSFO

1:30 PM

13A.1

Using CloudSat Cloud-Top Height Observations to Verify Himawari-8 Infrared Height Assessment

Lance E. Steele, Weathernews America, Inc., Norman, OK

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

13A.2

Process-Based Cloud Cover Verification for Improved Understanding of Physical and Statistical Forecasts

Jason Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and D. Sidoti, K. Pattipatti, A. Bienkowski, J. Kaminski, R. L. Bankert, Y. Jin, and M. Surratt

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

13A.3

Simultaneous Assimilation of Radar and All-Sky Satellite Infrared Radiance Observations for Convection-Allowing Ensemble Analysis and Prediction of Severe Thunderstorms

Yunji Zhang, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and D. J. Stensrud and F. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

13A.4

Identifying Fields of Cumulus in Satellite and HRRR Output to Improve Model Physics

Stephen L. Solimine, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. D. Turner

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

13A.5

Impact of GOES-16 Clear-Sky Radiance Data Assimilation in JMA’s Global NWP System

Izumi Okabe, JMA, Tokyo, Japan

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

13A.6

Toward the Development of Real-Time Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) and Delta NBR Imagery from GOES-16/17 and the Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (SNPP)

K. D. White, NWS, Huntsville, AL; NASA, Huntsville, AL; and E. Berndt and R. L. Fontenot

Recorded Presentation

Session 13B

Advances in Unified Modeling Frameworks (from Nowcasting to Climate)

Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Chair: May Wong, NCAR

1:30 PM

13B.1

Unified Forecast System (UFS)

Hendrik L. Tolman, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD; and D. M. Koch, R. Rood, K. Keith, W. Pryor, F. Adimi, and S. Morris

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

13B.2

The Unified Forecast System (UFS): A Framework for Prediction Shared by Research and Operations

Richard B. Rood, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and H. L. Tolman, C. DeLuca, M. Vertenstein, A. Chawla, and A. Mehra

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

13B.3

Coordinating the Giant: The Earth Prediction Innovation Center (EPIC)

Bill Lapenta, NOAA/OAR/Office of Weather and Air Quality, Silver Spring, MD; and D. L. Carlis and K. Kumar

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (36.8 kB)

2:15 PM

13B.4

38 Years of Global and Regional Reforecasts and Surface Reanalyses Produced by CMC-ECCC

Nedka Pentcheva, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, Canada; and N. Gasset, M. Bulat, X. Wang, and R. Pavlovic

Recorded Presentation

Handout (4.1 MB)

2:30 PM

13B.5

Numerical Weather Prediction at The Weather Company: Overview of a Global Rapidly Updating Forecast System

Todd Hutchinson, The Weather Company, Andover, MA; and W. M. Sheridan, B. A. Wilt, K. Dixon, J. Wong, J. P. Cipriani, and B. Skamarock

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

13B.6

Advances Toward an Operational Convection-Allowing Ensemble Prediction System in the Unified Forecast System at NOAA

J. R. Carley, NOAA, College Park, MD; and B. T. Blake, T. L. Black, E. Rogers, E. Aligo, J. Abeles, L. C. Dawson, T. Lei, Y. Lin, M. E. Pyle, P. Shafran, E. Strobach, X. Zhang, J. S. Kain, C. R. Alexander, L. J. Wicker, L. M. Harris, and J. K. Wolff

Recorded Presentation

Session 13C

Probabilistic Precipitation Forecast Techniques and Applications

Location: 258B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Cochairs: Christopher McCray, McGill Univ.; Jeff S. Waldstreicher, NOAA/NWS

1:30 PM

13C.1

Statistical Forecasts for the Occurrence of Precipitation Outperform Global Models over Northern Tropical Africa

Peter Knippertz, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and P. Vogel, T. Gneiting, A. H. Fink, and A. Schlueter

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

13C.2

2016–19 Verification of the National Weather Service Probabilistic Snowfall Program

Philip N. Schumacher, NWS, Sioux Falls, SD; and D. B. Radell

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

13C.3

Linking Ensemble Data to Users: AccuWeather’s Snowfall Probability Tool Provides Unique Insight of Forecast Confidence

Daniel DePodwin, AccuWeather, State College, PA; and M. Moss and J. Porter

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

13C.4

Applications of the Geometry-Sensitive Ensemble Mean for Lake-Effect Snowbands and Other Weather Phenomena

Jonathan J. Seibert, The Pennsylvania State Univ., Univ. Park, PA; and S. J. Greybush, J. Li, Z. Zhang, and F. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

13C.5

Heavy Rainfall Forecasts from Two Very Different Ensembles

Trevor Alcott, ESRL, Boulder, CO; and E. A. Kalina, I. Jankov, and D. C. Dowell

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

13C.6

Process-Based Evaluation of Stochastic Perturbed Parameterization Tendencies on Convective-Permitting Ensemble Forecasts of the 1–2 June 2017 Taiwan Heavy Rainfall Event

Kevin Lupo, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn and S. C. Yang

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 68

Python Tools for Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Location: 258C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP); the 10th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; and the 36th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies )

Cochairs: Benjamin C. Trabing, Colorado State Univ.; Maxwell Grover, Valparaiso University

1:30 PM

J68.1

Evaluation of an Open-Source Radar-Based Nowcasting Tool in a Tropical Environment

Brandon Osborne, i3, Huntsville, AL

1:45 PM

J68.2

Visualizations to Facilitate Regression for CAMPS

Alison L. Reynolds, College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, VA; and E. Schlie, D. E. Rudack, S. R. Olson, and E. Engle

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

J68.3

Leveraging Predictions from NOAA's Oceanographic Forecast Models to Increase Environmental Variability Awareness in Ocean Mapping

Giuseppe Masetti, Univ. of New Hampshire, Durham, NH; and L. A. Mayer, P. D. Johnson, and J. G. W. Kelley

2:15 PM

J68.4

Distributed Workflow for WRF Processes and Visualization Using WRF-Python and Dask

Robert C. Fritzen, Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb, IL; and V. A. Gensini, S. Collis, and R. Jackson

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

J68.5

Bringing WRF into MetPy (and the Rest of the Atmospheric Sciences Python Ecosystem)

Jonathan E. Thielen, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and R. M. May

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

J68.6

Reproducible Forecast Evaluation with the Solar Forecast Arbiter

Antonio T. Lorenzo, The Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and W. F. Holmgren, C. W. Hansen, A. Tuohy, J. Sharp, L. J. Boeman, A. Wigington, D. Larson, Q. Wang, and A. Golnas

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

PM Coffee Break (Thursday)

Location: Boston Convention and Exhibition Center

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

Session 14A

Evaluating Numerical Weather Forecasts in the Tropics

Location: 258C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Cochairs: Joseph P. Koval, The Weather Company - An IBM Business; Maria Gehne, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, NOAA ESRL PSD

3:30 PM

14A.1

Can Limited Area Mesoscale Models Forecast Tropical Cyclones?

Poushali Ghosh, Millersville Univ., Millersville, PA; and M. Fiorino and R. A. Anthes

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

14A.2

Tropical Dynamics Diagnostics for NWP

Maria Gehne, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, NOAA ESRL PSD, Boulder, CO; and J. Dias and G. Kiladis

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM

14A.3

An Investigation of North Atlantic TC Ensemble Forecasts with Large Cross-Track Errors

Nicholas Michael Leonardo, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

14A.4

Performance of the Global Forecast System (GFS) in the Northern South America Region and Its Impact on the Overall Skill of an Operational Regional Weather Forecast Strategy Using WRF

Gisel Guzmán, Sistema de Alerta Temprana del Valle de Aburrá (SIATA), Medellín, Colombia; Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Medellín, Medellín, Colombia; and C. D. Hoyos Ortíz, D. C. Cruz, L. A. Gómez, and M. Zapata

Recorded Presentation

Handout (5.1 MB)

4:30 PM

14A.5

Evaluating TIGGE Rainfall Forecasts for Tropical Eastern Africa

Emily Riddle, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Stellingwerf, T. M. Hopson, J. Knievel, B. Brown, and M. Gebremichael

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

14A.6

Skill of Global Raw and Postprocessed Ensemble Predictions of Rainfall in the Tropics

Peter Knippertz, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and P. Vogel, A. H. Fink, A. Schlueter, and T. Gneiting

Recorded Presentation

Session 14B

Numerical and Observational Studies: Microscale and Mesoscale Processes over Complex Terrain

Location: 258B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Cochairs: Bruce Telfeyan, 557 Weather Wing; Heather A. Holmes, University of Nevada, Reno; Holly J. Oldroyd, Univ. of California, Davis

3:30 PM

14B.1

Extreme Events across New Mexico during the 2018 North American Monsoon

Daniel Pagliaro, Pagcore Solutions LLC, Albuquerque, NM; and J. Torres

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.3 MB)

3:45 PM

14B.2

Initializing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model in Complex Coastal Regions

Eric Allen, Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE; and D. E. Veron

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM

14B.3

Influences of Orography on Banded and Cellular Lake- and Sea-Effect Systems in Idealized Simulations

Thomas M. Gowan, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

14B.4

Improving the Maintenance of Simulated Mountain-Valley Cold Pools within Complex Terrain y Better Representation of Cloud–Radiative Interactions and Turbulent Mixing

Joseph B. Olson, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. Kenyon, J. Brown, W. M. Angevine, M. D. Toy, Y. Pichugina, L. Bianco, I. V. Djalalova, and K. Lantz

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

14B.5

Influence of Terrain and Environment on Cold Pools during RELAMPAGO

Holly M. Mallinson, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, IL; and M. Grover and R. J. Trapp

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

14B.6

Including Advection in Boundary Condition Models of Momentum and Heat for Heterogeneous Stratified Boundary Layers

Jeremy A. Gibbs, NOAA/OAR National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK; Univ. of Oklahoma, Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, Norman, OK; and R. Stoll, G. Q. Torkelson, and T. Harman

Recorded Presentation

Session 14C

Seasonal-to-Subseasonal Numerical Weather Prediction

Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Chair: Kandis Boyd, OAR

3:30 PM

14C.1

Calibrated Probabilistic Seasonal Forecasts at IBM/The Weather Company: Business Applications

Todd Crawford, IBM, Andover, MA; and J. Belanger, M. J. Ventrice, and J. K. Williams

3:45 PM

14C.2

A New Technique for Subdaily Week-3 Forecast Updates Using the ECMWF Monthly Model

Michael J. Ventrice, The Weather Company, Andover, MA

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM

14C.3

A Priori Identification of Skillful Extratropical Subseasonal Forecasts

John R. Albers, NOAA, Boulder, CO; CIRES–Colorado Univ. Boulder, Boulder, CO; and M. Newman

Recorded Presentation

Paper 14C.4 is now Poster 695A.

4:15 PM

14C.4A

Accelerating Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Modeling and Improving Week-3–4 Forecasts with the Unified Forecast System: Plan and Progress

Y. Xue, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. M. Koch, V. Tallapragada, D. DeWitt, T. Hamill, J. Kinter, C. Stan, L. Harris, and J. C. Carman

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

14C.5

Subseasonal Experiment (SubX): Do the Research Center Models Improve the Skill of the Operational Center Models for Multimodel-Mean Forecasting of Weeks 3 and 4?

Emerson Nicole LaJoie, CPC, College Park, MD

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

14C.6

Simulating Extreme Precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula Using a Convective-Permitting Subseasonal Reforecast Product

C. Bayu Risanto, The Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and C. L. Castro, H. I. Chang, I. Hoteit, and T. M. Luong

Recorded Presentation

Joint Session 71

Automated Guidance for Atmospheric Rivers, Flash Floods, and Other Hydrometeorological Extremes

Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Hosts: (Joint between the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP); and the 34th Conference on Hydrology )

Chair: Brandt D. Maxwell, NOAA/NWS

3:30 PM

J71.1

The U.S. West Coast Network of Atmospheric River Observatories: Tools for Improving Situational Awareness in Operational Forecasting

Allen B. White, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and D. J. Gottas, L. S. Darby, T. E. Ayers, and J. L. Leach

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

J71.2

Heavy Precipitation and Flash Flood Forecasts Using Random Forests and Convection-Allowing Models

Aaron J. Hill, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM

J71.3

If a Flood Falls in a (Random) Forest, Does It Get Counted? Advances and Challenges in Predicting Excessive Precipitation Using Machine Learning

Russ S. Schumacher, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and A. J. Hill, G. R. Herman, M. Erickson, B. Albright, M. Klein, and J. A. Nelson Jr.

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

J71.4

Using a Random Forest Model to Assess Flash Flood Probability across Southern Utah

Michael P. Seaman, NOAA, Salt Lake City, UT; and D. Van Cleave and N. J. Carr

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

J71.5

Sensitivity Analysis of Rainfall and Streamflow Thresholds for Forecasting Flash Floods

Humberto Vergara, CIMMS, Norman, OK; and J. J. Gourley and A. Vergara

4:45 PM

J71.6

An Improved Extreme Forecast Index for Temperature and Precipitation

Pedro Odon, MineSense Technologies Ltd., Vancouver, BC, Canada; and G. West and R. Stull

Recorded Presentation

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Sunday, 12 January 2020

4:00 PM-6:30 PM: Sunday, 12 January 2020

Presidential Forum, Annual Meeting Welcome, Annual Review and Awards Ceremony

Location: Ballroom East (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Monday, 13 January 2020

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Analysis and Forecasting of Severe Thunderstorms and Associated Hazards. Part I

Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Verification, Bias Correction, and Postprocessing of Numerical Weather Models. Part I

Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

This session will be hosted by the 26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (26NWP). We welcome abstracts on topics including (but not limited to) novel methods and applications for bias correction, model-output statistics (MOS), object-based bias correction and post-processing, machine-learning-based bias correction and post-processing, etc.

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 13 January 2020

AM Coffee Break (Monday)

Location: Boston Convention and Exhibition Center

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

PD 1

Panel Discussion Panel Discussion: Transitions from Research to Operations, Operations to Research, and Operations to Practice (Centennial)

Location: 258B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

A forum featuring panelists with expertise in research, operations, and practice discussing transitions and interactions among those realms.

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Lunch Break (Monday)

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Analysis and Forecasting of Severe Thunderstorms and Associated Hazards. Part II

Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Verification, Bias Correction, and Postprocessing of Numerical Weather Models. Part II

Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

This session will be hosted by the 26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (26NWP). We welcome abstracts on topics including (but not limited to) novel methods and applications for verification, bias correction, model-output statistics (MOS), object-based bias correction and post-processing, machine-learning-based bias correction and post-processing, etc.

2:00 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

PD 2

Panel Discussion NWA/AMS Ronald W. Przybylinski Research Operations Nexus (RON) Meetup

Location: 205C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Ron Przybylinski, the former Science and Operations Officer (SOO) of the National Weather Service Forecast Office in St. Louis, Missouri, left us the legacy of his unending motivation to interconnect weather operations and research in strong and enduring ways. Ron was a master in the transition zone, or nexus, of operations and research. Research interactions with Ron led to large field projects that provided the great benefit both to operations and the general knowledge. Ron Przybylinski inspired the idea of the RON Meetups, which have taken place at the National Weather Association (NWA) Annual Meetings since 2015 and American Meteorological Society (AMS) Annual Meetings since 2018.

This session will provide the opportunity for an interactive "meetup" between research and operational meteorologists. The groups will rotate through a number of stations in speed-mentoring fashion and discuss ideas and themes that could benefit forecast and warning operations. The goal is simple: to build and develop new relationships in the nexus! This year, the meetup will be followed by an additional discussion including R2O/O2R success stories and expert-provided information on how to succeed in O2R/R2O.

The Board for Operational Government Meteorologists is co-sponsoring this session.

Because seating is limited, additional registration (at no cost) is required at the following link: https://forms.gle/fK88UpMmvUsBDQMZA

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Advances in Downscaling of Weather and Climate Models

Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Analysis and Forecasting of Severe Thunderstorms and Associated Hazards. Part III

Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Mon)

Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

P 1

Poster Session 30 WAF/26 NWP Monday Poster Session

Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

6:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Exhibits Opening and Reception

Location: Hall A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Tuesday, 14 January 2020

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

JPD 3

Joint Panel Discussion Future Challenges in Weather Analysis and Forecasting (Centennial)

Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

The session is scheduled to be a 90-minute panel discussion moderated by the co-chairs of the 30th WAF/26th NWP conferences. A 5-minute introduction from each panelist will start the session, with each panelist discussing what they see as Future Challenges in Weather Analysis and Forecasting and how their work addresses said challenges. The remainder of the session (about 60 minutes) will be an open-floor discussion, where audience members will be encouraged to ask questions to the panelists about Future Challenges in Weather Analysis and Forecasting. The discussion will be guided by the moderator(s) as needed.

J 14

Joint Session Joint Session on Scale Interactions and Predictability—In Memory of Fuqing Zhang: Part I

Location: 104C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Exhibit Hall (Tuesday)

Location: Hall A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

AM Coffee Break (Tuesday)

Location: Boston Convention and Exhibition Center

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Advances in Dynamics and Physics of Numerical Weather Models. Part I

Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Analysis and Forecasting of Winter Weather. Part I

Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

J 19

Joint Session Joint Session on Scale Interactions and Predictability—In Memory of Fuqing Zhang: Part II

Location: 104C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Lunch Break (Tuesday)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Advances in Dynamics and Physics of Numerical Weather Models. Part II

Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Analysis and Forecasting of Winter Weather. Part II

Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

J 20

Joint Session Probabilistic Hydrometeorological Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis. Part I

Location: 253A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Over the last several decades, substantial progress has been achieved in probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting theories and applications. However, significant challenges still exist in assessing the uncertainty of complex hydrometeorological processes and improving hydrometeorological predictions, especially extreme hydrometeorological events. This session solicits papers that focus on, but not limit to, (1) addressing uncertainty in hydrometeorological forecasting from a number of sources in both offline and couple systems, and (2) innovative methods in hydrometeorological ensemble forecasting. The former includes uncertainties in forcing data (e.g., quantitative precipitation estimation and meteorological forcing data), initial conditions (e.g., soil moisture and snow status), parameters (e.g., land use and soil texture), model structure (e.g., assumptions, formulations and numerical solutions), and calibration (e.g., single-objective optimization and multi-objective optimizations). The latter emphasizes integrated ensemble methods to improve hydrometeorological forecasting, verification methods to evaluate probabilistic forecasting, and statistical postprocessing techniques to generate hydrometeorological data products.

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

PM Coffee Break (Tuesday)

Location: Boston Convention and Exhibition Center

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Advances in Dynamics and Physics of Numerical Weather Models. Part III

Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Analysis and Forecasting of Winter Weather. Part III

Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

J 26

Joint Session Probabilistic Hydrometeorological Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis. Part II

Location: 253A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Tues)

Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

P 2

Poster Session 30 WAF/26 NWP Tuesday Poster Session

Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

JP 2

Joint Poster Session Probabilistic Hydrometeorological Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis—Posters

Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Wednesday, 15 January 2020

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Advances in Radar Usage for Weather Analysis and Forecasting. Part I

Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

This session will be hosted by the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (30WAF). We welcome abstracts on the use of new radar data (mobile radars, phased-array, dual-polarization products, etc.) and novel applications of pre-existing radar data.

Analysis and Forecasting of Fire Weather

Location: 151A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

This session will be hosted by the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (30WAF). It will discuss analysis and forecasting techniques for fire weather, including recent extremes (e.g., extreme fire seasons in western North America and the Canadian sub-Arctic), pyrocumulonimbus, decision support for fire suppression, new fire-weather parameters used in forecasting, etc.

J 36

Joint Session Advances in Data Assimilation, Verification, and Probabilistic Forecasting of Aviation Weather Hazards

Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Through collaborative efforts, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) of weather phenomena of interest to aviation is constantly evolving. Improvements to data assimilation and verification techniques has allowed for continued advancement of predicting clouds, visibility, turbulence, icing, and convection: all hazards that pose a threat to aviation. Probabilistic forecasting is also being explored as a means of predicting risks and communicating uncertainty associated with these hazards and their impact on aviation. This session will address recent progress and accomplishments across these areas.

J 37

Joint Session Physical Interpretability in Machine Learning

Location: 260 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Physical interpretability in machine learning

9:00 AM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Exhibit Hall (Wed)

Location: Hall A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

AM Coffee Break (Wednesday)

Location: Boston Convention and Exhibition Center

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Analysis and Forecasting of Mesoscale Weather Phenomena. Part I

Location: 151A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

This session will be hosted by the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (30WAF). We welcome abstracts on phenomena including (but not limited to) snow-banding, drylines and associated circulations, bores, density currents, etc. -- as well as their upscale influence on the larger environment.

Severe Weather: Predictability, Uncertainty, and Best Use of Forecast Information. Part I

Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

The importance of severe weather events is underscored by the severe effects in human lives, infrastructure and the environment. Severe storms cause disruption in services nation-wide provided by the Coast Guard, Port and transportation authorities, and electric power utilities, among others; for example, weather-induced blackouts of electricity distribution grids have caused over $1.5 trillion of damage in the US since the 1980s according to the 2018 report “Billion-Dollar Weather/Climate Disasters” by the U.S. Department of Commerce NOAA/NCDC. Skillful prediction of such extreme events through numerical weather prediction, statistical techniques or their combination in hybrid dynamical-statistical methods is crucial for managing preparedness, emergency response, and mitigation of impacts. Forecast uncertainty estimation and communication of severe weather predictions remain a challenge and often overshadow the successes and improvements in weather forecasting over the last decade. There is a need to connect state-of-the-science severe weather forecast methods with communication of the forecast and its uncertainties to inform, educate and protect the public as well as critical infrastructure. This session is dedicated to the prediction of severe weather and solicits abstracts from a broad range of research focused on: forecasting extreme weather events; understanding sources of forecast uncertainty and methods for improvement; and addressing the communication of the forecast between scientists, stakeholders and the general public by defining the best use of forecast information.

Advances in Cloud- and Convection-Resolving Numerical Weather Models. Part I

Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

J 42

Joint Session Statistical Methods for Optimized Aviation Hazard Detection and Prediction

Location: 206A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Studies using statisitcal techniques to derive additional information related to the analysis and prediction of aviation weather hazards

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Lunch Break (Wednesday)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Advances in Cloud- and Convection-Resolving Numerical Weather Models. Part II

Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Numerical Modeling of Wildfire and Wildfire Impacts

Location: 151A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

This session will be hosted by the 26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (26NWP). We welcome abstracts on topics including (but not limited to) direct numerical simulation of wildfires, coupled fire-atmosphere models, and wildfire impacts (e.g., the effect of burn scars on hydrology, as well as their deleterious effects on model initialization and forecasting if they are not assimilated into the model). Abstracts that focus primarily on wildfire smoke/pollution should be submitted to the 22nd Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry.

Severe Weather: Predictability, Uncertainty, and Best Use of Forecast Information. Part II

Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

PM Coffee Break (Wednesday)

Location: Boston Convention and Exhibition Center

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

10A

Advances in Radar Usage for Weather Analysis and Forecasting. Part II

Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

10B

Analysis and Forecasting of Mesoscale Weather Phenomena. Part II

Location: 151A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

J 51

Joint Session Challenges in Communication and Decision Support throughout the Research-to-Operations Nexus

Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

This will be a joint session between the 8th Symposium on Building a Weather-ready Nation (8WRN), 10th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations (10R2O), and 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (30WAF). We welcome abstracts from emergency managers, social scientists, operational forecasters, researchers with R2O products, and others at the R2O nexus, to discuss the challenges they face in communication and decision support.

J 55

Joint Session High-Performance Computing for Numerical Weather Prediction. Part I

Location: 212 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

This will be a joint session between the 6th Symposium on High-performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate (6HPC) and the 26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (26NWP). This session will explore the use of high-performance computing to develop, run, enhance the performance of, and post-process output from numerical weather models such as WRF, convection-allowing models, convection-allowing ensembles, etc. Abstract topics may include (but are not limited to) improving computational efficiency, improving scalability, preparing for exascale computing, and optimizing numerical weather models to benefit from the use of specialized hardware in HPC environments, such as graphical processing units (GPUs).

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Wed)

Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

P 3

Poster Session 30 WAF/26 NWP Wednesday Poster Session

Location: Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Exhibit Hall Networking Reception

Location: Hall A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

6:30 PM-9:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Centennial Celebration (Centennial)

Location: Ballroom East (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Thursday, 16 January 2020

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

PD 1

Panel Discussion Historical Perspectives on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (Centennial)

Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

This will be a joint panel session between the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (30WAF) and 26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (26NWP). Each of 5 invited panelists will be given 18 minutes (14-15 minutes of presenting followed by 3-4 minutes of Q&A) to discuss their perspective on the history of the weather/water/climate enterprise. We will invite both prominent late-career scientists and historians.

11A

Integrative Analysis of East Asia Monsoon Frontal System through Observational and Modeling Efforts

Location: 258C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Large-scale synoptic patterns and multi-scale interactions of East-Asia Monsoon Frontal System
Synergistic Observations from ground-based, aircraft, and satellites for East-Asia Monsoon Frontal System
Simulation and evaluation of the heavy precipitation of East-Asia Monsoon Frontal System
River basin flood disaster warning

11B

Numerical Modeling for Recent Field Campaigns and Testbeds

Location: 258B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

This session will be hosted by the 26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (30NWP). We welcome abstracts on numerical modeling used to support recent field campaigns and testbeds, as well as advances in numerical modeling pursuant to recent campaigns and testbeds. Examples of recent campaigns and testbeds include (but are not limited to) VORTEX-SE, RELAMPAGO, TORUS, PISTON, the WPC Hydrometeorological Testbed, WPC Winter Weather Experiment, WPC Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment (FFaiR), NOAA Spring Forecasting Experiment, etc.

J 59

Joint Session High-Performance Computing for Numerical Weather Prediction. Part II

Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

9:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

Exhibit Hall (Thurs)

Location: Hall A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

9:30 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

Exhibit Hall Breakfast

Location: Hall A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

12A

Advanced Physics and Physics Interoperability in Community Models

Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

In this session, we will highlight the latest research on current and next-generation physical parametrization addressing formulation, development and evaluation of parameterization of numerical model physical processes on short-, medium, extended-range and climate time scales. Additionally, we invite discussion of the design and development of community software tools that enable physics interoperability in an efficient and standardized manner in community models. We encourage contributions from the National Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) and the NOAA Unified Forecast System, as well as other modeling efforts.

12B

Advances in Probabilistic Forecasting

Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

12C

Analysis and Forecasting for Recent Field Campaigns and Testbeds

Location: 258B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

This session will be hosted by the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (30WAF). We welcome abstracts on analysis and forecasting methods used to support recent field campaigns and testbeds, as well as advances in analysis and forecasting methods pursuant to recent campaigns and testbeds. Examples of recent campaigns and testbeds include (but are not limited to) VORTEX-SE, RELAMPAGO, TORUS, PISTON, the WPC Hydrometeorological Testbed, WPC Winter Weather Experiment, WPC Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment (FFaiR), NOAA Spring Forecasting Experiment, etc.

12D

Analysis and Forecasting of Tropical Weather

Location: 258C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

J 66

Joint Session Machine Learning for Subgrid Parameterization in Weather and Climate Models

Location: 156BC (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

This session will feature presentations on using machine learning models for parameterizing subgrid processes in numerical weather and climate models.

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

Lunch Break (Thursday)

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

13A

Advances in Satellite Usage for Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

This session will be hosted by the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (30WAF). We welcome abstracts on the use of new satellite data (GOES-16, GOES-17, Himawari-8, Geostationary Lightning Mapper, etc.) and novel applications of pre-existing satellite data.

13B

Advances in Unified Modeling Frameworks (from Nowcasting to Climate)

Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

13C

Probabilistic Precipitation Forecast Techniques and Applications

Location: 258B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

New approaches are emerging to develop probabilistic forecast information to help convey forecast uncertainty for decision making. This session will explore techniques and applications of NWP, particularly ensembles and model blends, to produce probabilistic forecasts of rainfall, snowfall, and ice accumulations. The session will also address methods to assess the skill and utility of probabilistic precipitation forecast information.

J 68

Joint Session Python Tools for Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Location: 258C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

This will be a joint session between the 36th Conference on Environmental Information-processing Technologies (36EIPT) and 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (30WAF). In the past decade Python has rapidly gained popularity in the geosciences, including in weather analysis and forecasting. Tools such as MetPy, SHARPpy METplus, and Siphon are used regularly by both researchers and forecasters. Additionally, many researchers and forecasters have developed their own Python tools, and many institutions have developed their own in-house tools. We welcome abstracts on novel Python tools, or novel uses of pre-existing Python tools, for weather analysis and forecasting.

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

PM Coffee Break (Thursday)

Location: Boston Convention and Exhibition Center

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

14A

Evaluating Numerical Weather Forecasts in the Tropics

Location: 258C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

We welcome abstracts on methods for evaluating weather forecasts in the Tropics. The quality of numerical weather prediction (NWP) in the Tropics is important not only because of the local impact of tropical convection, but also because improved forecasts of convective activity in the Tropics can positively impact forecast skill in Mid-latitudes several days later. Differences in the dynamics between Mid-latitudes and Tropics suggest that different metrics may be necessary to evaluate numerical weather forecasts in those regions. Standard metrics such as QPF and anomaly correlations may need to be augmented with process-based metrics and diagnostics taking into account known model biases/ difficulties in the Tropics in addition to current knowledge of tropical dynamics. Contributions proposing new methods for evaluating NWP forecasts in the Tropics, for example how to assess the models' forecast skill of phenomena with time scales longer than a few days, or diagnostics based on energy budgets, are particularly encouraged.

Expected topics include diagnostics of tropical convection and dynamical contributions to tropical convection, metrics describing tropical - extratropical interactions, and comparison of NWP model performance in the Tropics.

14B

Numerical and Observational Studies: Microscale and Mesoscale Processes over Complex Terrain

Location: 258B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

Atmospheric processes occurring over complex terrain pose many challenges for hydrological and meteorological prediction. These processes are 3-D, multi-scale, and affected by terrain slope, heterogeneous surface roughness, and other land-cover characteristics. Understanding the physics associated with these processes is critical to predicting a large number of geophysical phenomena (e.g., the timing of snow melt and runoff, glacier-mass balance and retreat, fire weather, etc.).

14C

Seasonal-to-Subseasonal Numerical Weather Prediction

Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

J 71

Joint Session Automated Guidance for Atmospheric Rivers, Flash Floods, and Other Hydrometeorological Extremes

Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)

This will be a joint session between the 26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (26NWP) and 34th Conference on Hydrology (34HYDRO). We welcome abstracts on topics including (but not limited to) coupled atmosphere-hydrological models and automated guidance for atmospheric rivers, flash floods, and other hydrometeorological extremes.

» Expand View

Joint Session 71 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Sunday, 12 January 2020

4:00 PM-6:30 PM: Sunday, 12 January 2020

Monday, 13 January 2020

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 13 January 2020

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 13 January 2020

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

2:00 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

6:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Tuesday, 14 January 2020

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Wednesday, 15 January 2020

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

9:00 AM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

6:30 PM-9:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Thursday, 16 January 2020

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

9:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

9:30 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020

Sunday, 12 January 2020

4:00 PM-6:30 PM: Sunday, 12 January 2020

Monday, 13 January 2020

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 13 January 2020

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 13 January 2020

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

2:00 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

6:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020

Tuesday, 14 January 2020

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Wednesday, 15 January 2020

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

9:00 AM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

6:30 PM-9:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Thursday, 16 January 2020

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 16 January 2020