Joint Session 64 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Program Chairs: S. W. Bieda III , NWSFO ; Ryan A. Lagerquist , CIMMS
Reviewers: Jeff S. Waldstreicher , NOAA/NWS ; Brandt D. Maxwell , NOAA/NWS ; Shawn Milrad , Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University ; Jerry Wegiel , NASA GSFC/SAIC ; Kathleen M. Magee , National Weather Service ; Malaquias Pena , SAIC and EMC/NCEP/NOAA ; Kandis Boyd , OAR ; Marina Astitha , Univ. of Connecticut ; Maria Gehne , CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, NOAA ESRL PSD ; Timothy S. Sliwinski , Texas Tech Univ. ; Aaron Hill , Texas Tech University ; Bruce Telfeyan , 557 Weather Wing ; Heather Holmes , Univ. of Texas ; Holly J. Oldroyd , Univ. of California, Davis ; Kristie Franz , Iowa State University ; Daniel Pagliaro , Pagcore Solutions LLC ; Jessie C. Carman , OAR ; James D. Doyle , NRL ; Rebecca Adams-Selin , AER ; Stephanie Avey , NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center ; Erik S. Pytlak , Bonneville Power Administration ; Christopher McCray , McGill Univ. ; Gregory J. Stumpf , CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory ; May Wong , University of British Columbia ; Christopher J. Melick , 557th Weather Wing ; Andrew C. Winters , Univ. at Albany, SUNY ; Clark Evans , Univ. of Wisconsin–Milwaukee ; Martin A. Baxter , Central Michigan University ; Joseph P. Koval , The Weather Company ; Benjamin C. Trabing , Colorado State Univ. ; James Pinto , NCAR ; Maxwell Grover , Valparaiso University

« Collapse View
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Monday, 13 January 2020

Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Session 1A
Analysis and Forecasting of Severe Thunderstorms and Associated Hazards - I
Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Cochairs: Clark Evans, Univ. of Wisconsin–Milwaukee; Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS
8:30 AM
1A.1
Development and Improvements in the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Data Assimilation System (HRRRDAS)
Therese T. Ladwig, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. C. Dowell, C. Alexander, M. Hu, S. Weygandt, G. Ge, T. Alcott, and I. Jankov

8:45 AM
1A.2
Vice and Virtue of Increased Resolution of Thunderstorm Objects
John R. Lawson, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin, P. S. Skinner, and A. E. Reinhart

9:00 AM
1A.3
Understanding High Shear Low CAPE (HSLC) Environments across the Contiguous United States and Europe Using Reanalysis Data
Elinor R. Martin, South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, Norman, OK; Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and F. Battaglioli, H. Croad, R. Cumming, and H. E. Brooks

9:15 AM
1A.4
Forecast Parameters for US Hail Occurrence and Size
John T. Allen, Central Michigan Univ., Mt. Pleasant, MI; and M. R. Kumjian, C. J. Nixon, R. E. D. Jewell, B. T. Smith, and R. L. Thompson

9:30 AM
1A.5
Sensitivity of a Winter Tornado Outbreak to Upstream SSTs
Maria J Molina, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. T. Allen and A. F. Prein

9:45 AM
1A.6
Role of Unusual MCS Morphology in the Table Rock Lake Duck Boat Tragedy and its Implications for Messaging to Vulnerable User Groups
Randall Graham, 19706 NE 197th Terrace, Smithville, MO


Session 1B
Verification, Bias Correction and Post-processing of Numerical Weather Models - I
Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Chair: Joseph P. Koval, The Weather Company
8:30 AM
1B.1
A New Webpage for Visualizing Verification Statistics from the Environmental Modeling Center's Numerical Modeling Suite
Alicia M. Bentley, I.M. Systems Group and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and C. D. Logan, B. T. Blake, M. P. Row, L. C. Dawson, and J. J. Levit

8:45 AM
1B.2
Advancing Capabilities for Verification of Convection-Allowing Models at the Environmental Modeling Center
Logan C. Dawson, I.M. Systems Group, Inc. and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and J. R. Carley, G. S. Manikin, B. T. Blake, Y. Lin, P. Shafran, E. Rogers, B. Zhou, M. E. Pyle, and J. J. Levit

9:00 AM
1B.3
Characteristics of Convective Initiation in High-Resolution Simulations: Object-Based Validation Using Geostationary Satellite Observations
D. Henderson, Univ. of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI; and J. A. Otkin, J. Mecikalski, D. Haliczer, and X. Li

9:15 AM
1B.4
Verification of Convection-Allowing NWP in High-Shear, Low-CAPE Environments
Chase S. Graham, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann

9:30 AM
1B.5
Object-Based Climatology and Verification of HRRR Forecasts
Jeffrey Duda, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; CIRES, Boulder, CO; and C. Alexander

9:45 AM
1B.6
The Use of the METplus Verification and Diagnostic Capability in Forecast Evaluation across Multiple Scales and Applications
Tara Jensen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Halley Gotway, G. P. McCabe Jr., J. Frimel, M. P. Row, R. G. Bullock, T. L. Fowler, D. W. Fillmore, B. Strong, M. Marquis, M. Win-Gildenmeister, J. Prestopnik, D. R. Adriaansen, and C. P. Kalb

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 13 January 2020


AM Coffee Break (Monday)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Joint Panel Discussion 2
Avoiding Day Zero: Governance of Urban Water Resources and Services
Location: 210AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Presidential Forum Sessions; the 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the Fifth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the 15th Symposium on the Urban Environment; the 15th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; and the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) )
Moderator: Amanda H. Lynch, Monash Univ.
Panelists: Maria Carmen Lemos, University of Michigan; Gillian Maree, Gauteng City-Region Observatory; Celeste Saulo, Servicio Meteorologico Nacional; Anji Seth, Univ. of Connecticut; Coleen Vogel, University of the Witwatersrand; Hallie Eakin, Arizona State University

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Lunch Break (Monday)

2:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Session 2A
Analysis and Forecasting of Severe Thunderstorms and Associated Hazards - II
Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Cochairs: James McCormick, Software Engineering Services; Sam Ng, Metropolitan State University
2:00 PM
2A.1
Distinguishing Characteristics of Tornadic and Non-Tornadic Supercell Storms from Composite Mean Analyses of Radar Observations
C. R. Homeyer, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and T. Sandmæl and C. K. Potvin

2:15 PM
2A.2
An Analysis of the Environmental and Physical Processes That Led to a Nocturnal Tornado in a Highly Stable Boundary Layer
Michael Hollan, NWS, Bismarck, ND; and C. Schultz

2:30 PM
2A.3
Outflow Surges in Simulated Supercell-Like Storms and their Influence on Tornado Development
Jannick Fischer, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and J. Dahl

2:45 PM
2A.4
Refining CAM-based Tornado Probability Forecasts Using Storm-inflow and Storm-attribute Information
David E. Jahn, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and B. T. Gallo, C. Broyles, B. T. Smith, I. L. Jirak, and J. M. Milne


Session 2B
Verification, Bias Correction and Post-processing of Numerical Weather Models - II
Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Chair: Joseph P. Koval, The Weather Company
2:00 PM
2B.1
Verification and Optimization of a Patchwise Localized Probability Matched Mean for Ensemble QPF
Nathan Snook, CAPS, Norman, OK; and K. Brewster, F. Kong, and M. Xue

2:15 PM
2B.2
Comparison of Object-Based and Grid-Based Verification of Warn-on-Forecast System HAILCAST Forecasts
Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER, Omaha, NE; and C. P. Kalb, P. S. Skinner, and T. Jensen

2:30 PM
2B.3
Reducing Moist Adiabatic Calculation Costs Using Lookup Tables
Nathan Aaron Dahl, CIMMS, Norman, OK; SPC, Norman, OK

2:45 PM
2B.4
Using Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) to Bias Correction of Wind speed forecasting
Bonyang Ku, KMA, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and M. K. Kim, S. Y. Park, and Y. H. Lee

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Session 3A
Advances in Downscaling of Weather and Climate Models
Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Chair: Erik S. Pytlak, Bonneville Power Administration
3:00 PM
3A.1
On the Urban Effects in High Resolution Weather Forecast and Regional Climate Simulations
Tomas Halenka, Charles Univ., Prague, Czech Republic; and J. Karlicky, M. Belda, P. Huszar, and T. Novakova

3:15 PM
3A.2
Potential for Downscaling Precipitation Forecasts Using Orographic Precipitation Gradients in the Western United States
Lucas Bohne, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and C. Strong and W. J. Steenburgh

3:30 PM
3A.3
STAR-ESDM: High-Resolution Station- and Grid-based Climate Projections
Katharine Hayhoe, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and I. Scott-Fleming and A. M. K. Stoner

3:45 PM
3A.4
Novel Approaches for Downscaling of 21st Century Precipitation Extremes –Focus over the Mediterranean & Mid-East
Pinhas Alpert, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel; Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel


Session 3B
Analysis and Forecasting of Severe Thunderstorms and Associated Hazards - III
Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Cochairs: Sam Ng, Metropolitan State University; Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS
3:00 PM
3B.1
Climatology of Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes in China from 2006 to 2018
Zhiyong Meng, Peking University, Beijing, China; and L. Bai, K. Sueki, G. Chen, and R. Zhou

3:15 PM
3B.2
Does Ambient Deep-Tropospheric Vertical Wind Shear Influence Tornadic Supercells in Tropical Cyclones?
Benjamin A. Schenkel, Univ. of Oklahoma/NOAA, Norman, OK; and R. Edwards and M. C. Coniglio

3:30 PM
3B.3
Projecting the End-of-Century Severe Hail and Tornado Landscape across Eastern Colorado Using Synthetic Reports and Pseudo-Global Warming Approaches
Samuel J. Childs, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

3:45 PM
3B.4
Observational Summary of the Effects of the Northeastern Alabama Plateaus on the Near-Storm Environment of Tornadic Storms during VORTEX-SE
Anthony W. Lyza, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and T. A. Murphy, B. T. Goudeau, P. Pangle, K. R. Knupp, and R. A. Wade

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 13 January 2020


Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Mon)

Poster Session
30WAF/26NWP Monday Poster Session
Location: Hall B1 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Verification of Convection-Allowing Initial Condition Ensemble Modeling Systems with WRF-ARW
Russell P. Manser, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and B. C. Ancell

Evolution and Development Mechanisms of a Rare Strong Arc-Shaped Squall Line Occurring in Northern Beijing in 2017
Qi Luo, CMA, Beijing, China; and Y. Zheng and M. Chen

An Evaluation of Vertical Thermodynamic Profiles and Derived Stability Parameters from Parallel FV3- and Spectral-Model GFS Forecasts
Dillon V. Blount, UW-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and C. Evans, I. L. Jirak, and A. R. Dean

Exploring a Missed Convection Initiation Forecast by Assimilating GOES-16 Brightness Temperatures and WSR-88D Observations
Paul Mykolajtchuk, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and K. C. Eure, Y. Zhang, D. J. Stensrud, and F. Zhang

Radar-based Investigation of Thunderstorm Outflow Speed vs. Peak Wind Gusts
Angela J Mose, NOAA, Kokomo, IN

Diagnosing Environmental Properties of the July 2018 Heavy Rainfall Event in Japan
Takashi Unuma, JMA, Tokyo, Japan; and T. Takemi

Simultaneous Assimilation of WSR-88D and GOES-16 Observations to Improve Ensemble Forecasts of Convection Initiation
Keenan C. Eure, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; ESRL, Boulder, CO; and P. Mykolajtchuk, Y. Zhang, D. J. Stensrud, and F. Zhang

Understanding Frequent Lightning Environments Over the NWS Albany, NY County Warning Area
Christina Speciale, National Weather Service, Albany, NY

Verification of Convection-Allowing Ensemble System over the Hindu Kush Himalaya Region during the 2018 and 2019 Pre-Monsoon Severe Thunderstorm Seasons
J. L. Case, ENSCO, Inc., Huntsville, AL; and P. N. Gatlin, J. Srikishen, and E. W. McCaul Jr.

Investigating the Structure of Updraft Helicity in an Idealized Supercell Simulation
Jeffrey M. Milne, CIMMS, Norman, OK; University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; SPC, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak and H. E. Brooks

A Meteorological Assessement of the Initial Development of the 19 July 2019 Wisconsin Derecho
William R. Borghoff, NWS, Chanhassen, MN

Analyzing Thunderstorms for Improved Lightning Safety
Jeff Lapierre, Earth Networks, Germantown, MD; and M. Stock

Thunder-day Climatology Using Modern Lightning Location Data
Michael Stock, Earth Networks, Germantown, MD; and J. Lapierre, M. Hoekzema, C. Merrill, and M. Mehallow

Exploring the Use of a Storm-Relative Time Height to Analyze Changes in the Pre-Convective Environment
Adam T. Hirsch, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market

The Catastrophic Case of Heavy Rainfall and Flash Flooding of 14–15 October 2018 in South-Western France: a Multi-Scale Observational and Modeling Analysis
Olivier Caumont, CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France; and F. Bouttier, C. Lebeaupin Brossier, A. Lovat, M. Mandement, O. Nuissier, O. Laurantin, and J. Eeckman

Analysis and Prediction of High Impact Weather over Lake Victoria in East Africa
Rita D. Roberts, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. W. Wilson, A. Hartley, and C. L. Bain

Comparative Analyses of Non-Tornadic versus Tornadic Quasi-Linear Convective Systems in Central Oklahoma 24-25 May 2019
Barry R. Bowers, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Norman, OK; and V. N. Mahale, T. T. Lindley, and R. Smith

Assimilation of Local Ground Stations and Radar Data to Improve the Prediction of the 9-10 September 2017 Thunderstorm in Livorno (Italy)
Diego Cerrai, Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT; and V. Capecchi, S. Melani, L. Rovai, A. Antonini, and A. Ricchi

An Updated Severe Hail and Tornado Climatology for Eastern Colorado
Samuel J. Childs, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

Use of WRF-HAILCAST to Produce a Dynamically Downscaled Hail Climatology
Chase Calkins, AER, Lincoln, NE; and R. Adams-Selin

Hailstorms in Association with Cold Core Lows in Brazil.
Ernani L. Nascimento, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Santa Maria, Brazil

Comparison of One-Dimensional Pseudo-Lagrangian and Three-Dimensional Fully Lagrangian Trajectories when Forecasting Hail Size
Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER, Omaha, NE

Updating HAILCAST Hail Size Predictions in NSHARP
Nathan Aaron Dahl, CIMMS, Norman, OK; SPC, Norman, OK; and R. Adams-Selin, R. E. D. Jewell, and I. L. Jirak

Simulating Self-assembly of Tornado Storm Chasers Using Agent-based Modeling
Paul Roebber, University of Wisconsin−Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and A. J. Moxon, A. Seimon, and J. Allen

Examination of the Predictability of Nocturnal Tornado Events in the Southeastern United States
Ryan C. Bunker, NWS, Topeka, KS; and A. E. Cohen, J. A. Hart, A. E. Gerard, K. E. Klockow-McClain, and D. P. Nowicki

Observed Relationship Between Tornado Intensity and Pre-tornadic Mesocyclone Characteristics
Michael Frank Sessa, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and R. J. Trapp and J. Einbinder

Analyses of Quasi-Linear Convective System Tornado Characteristics, Environments, and Genesis Mechanisms
Devin Chehak, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and R. J. Trapp

On Improving Tornado Detection in the Northeastern U.S. Via an Objective Radar and Near-Stormenvironment Algorithm
Jonathan O'Brien, NWS Mount Holly, New Jersey, Westampton, NJ; and R. Jain, C. Shafer, L. R. Robertson, P. fitzsimmons, V. Meola, and A. staarmann

The Unusual Tornadoes in Chile in May 2019: Forecasting Challenges from the Synoptic, Mesoscale, and Subseasonal Scales
Bradford S. Barrett, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and J. C. Marin and M. Jacques-Coper

Short-Term Prediction of QLCS Mesovortices in the Southeast U.S. on 30 April 2017
Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., CIMMS, Norman, OK; and M. B. Chasteen and M. J. Krocak

Environmental Nuances and Convective Morphology During the 30 April 2017 Tornado Outbreak in the Southeastern United States
Manda B. Chasteen, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and T. J. Galarneau Jr., M. J. Krocak, and Z. A. Brooke Zibton

The Use of Updraft Helicity As a Severe Weather Surrogate for Convective Systems
Morris L. Weisman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. A. Sobash, C. S. Schwartz, and K. Manning Sr.

Development of Unified Post Processing System (UPP) for FV3 Based Global, Regional, Hurricane, and Ensemble Systems
Wen Meng, NOAA, College Park, MD; and H. Y. Chuang and J. J. Levit

Experimenting Model Blend at Finnish Meteorological Institute
Leila Hieta, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; and M. Partio, M. Vanhatalo, J. S. Ylhaisi, and M. Laine

Recent Upgrades of the Operational HRRR and GFS: Are Cool-Season Precipitation Forecasts Improving over the Mountain West?
W. James Steenburgh, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and M. Caron

Evaluating the Rapid Refresh Numerical Weather Prediction Model in the Arctic
Matthew Bray, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and D. D. Turner and G. de Boer

A Surface Temperature and Moisture Inter-comparison Study of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, In-situ Measurements, and Satellite Observations over the Atacama Desert
Ricardo Morais Fonseca, Khalifa Univ. of Science and Technology, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; Luleå University of Technology, Luleå, Sweden; and M. P. Zorzano-Mier, A. Azua-Bustos, C. González-Silva, and F. J. Martin-Torres

Wind Forecasts for Rocket and Balloon Launches at the Esrange Space Center using the WRF Model
Ricardo Morais Fonseca, Khalifa Univ. of Science and Technology, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; Luleå University of Technology, Luleå, Sweden; and F. J. Martin-Torres and K. Andersson

Verification of WRF Model Forecasts of Windstorms in Southwestern British Columbia
Bryan Jansens, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and J. Jeworrek, G. West, and R. Stull

The WMO Standard Verification of the Surface Fields for the Deterministic Numerical Weather Prediction in the Japan Meteorological Agency
Yuiko Ichikawa, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan; and M. Sakamoto, K. Yamada, and H. Sato

Evaluation of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Model Using Near-Surface Meteorological and Flux Observations
Temple R. Lee, NOAA/ARL/ATDD and CIMMS, Oak Ridge, TN; and M. S. Buban, D. D. Turner, T. P. Meyers, and C. B. Baker

Evaluation of the HRRR Model and COAMPS during Atmospheric River Events in California
Kevin J. Dougherty, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Nachamkin and J. Horel

The Use of METplus Verification and Diagnostic Capabilities for Evaluating Sea-Ice Predictions
Lindsay R. Blank, NCAR, Boulder, CO; Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and R. Grumbine, T. Jensen, and J. J. Levit

Machine Learning Enhancement of Spatial Lake-Effect Precipitation Forecasts
Thomas M. Gowan, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh and D. J. Gagne II

Systematic Comparison of Convection-Allowing Models during the 2017 NOAA HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment
Corey Potvin, NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. R. Carley, A. J. Clark, L. J. Wicker, P. S. Skinner, A. E. Reinhart, B. T. Gallo, J. S. Kain, G. S. Romine, E. Aligo, K. A. Brewster, D. C. Dowell, L. M. Harris, I. L. Jirak, F. Kong, T. A. Supinie, K. W. Thomas, X. Wang, Y. Wang, and M. Xue

Correction of Temperature Forecast Using Spectral Analysis Method on Mountain Area
Min-Jong Song, KMA, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. Y. Park, S. H. KIM, and Y. H. Lee

Forecast Skill of Varying WRF Resolutions and Physics Parameterization Combinations over the Finger Lakes and Long Island with Statistical Post-Processing
Marc J Alessi, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and A. T. DeGaetano

Analyzing Weather-regime-dependence of GFS Extended Precipitation Forecast Skill Based on the Convective Adjustment Timescale
Malcolm T. Wilson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and M. Wong and C. Schwartz

Implementation of CAM-HAILCAST in the Stand-Alone Regional FV3
John M. Henderson, AER, Lexington, MA; and C. Calkins, T. Supinie, L. M. Harris, Y. Wang, and R. Adams-Selin

New Visualization Techniques, Verification Tools and Results from the NWS Probabilistic Snowfall Experiment
Jeff S. Waldstreicher, NOAA/NWS, Bohemia, NY; and D. B. Radell

Verification and Visualization of Ensemble Snowband Forecasts
Jacob T. Radford, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann

Rain-Band Array Formed on the Southern Part of Shikoku Island, Japan
Akira Nishii, Kochi University, Kochi, Japan; and K. Sassa

A Large Eddy Simulation Study on Atmospheric Flows over Multi-scale Terrain
Song-Lak Kang, Gangneung-Wonju National Univ., Gangneung, Korea, Republic of (South); and J. H. Ryu

Orographic and Land Surface Impacts on Numerical Weather Forecasts When Simulating a Sudden Downwelling Event in a Medium Sized Lake
Campbell D. Watson, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY; and G. Auger, H. Kolar, and L. A. Treinish

Characterization and Probabilistic Discrimination Between Hailstorm and Rainfall Events Over a Complex Terrain in a Tropical Environment Using Remote Sensors and in Situ Data.
Juan Manuel Valencia, Sistema de Alerta Temprana del Valle de Aburrá (SIATA), Medellín, Colombia; and C. D. Hoyos Ortíz

Anabatic Winds over a Steep Alpine Slope: Observations of the Turbulence Structure
Holly J. Oldroyd, Univ. of California, Davis, Davis, CA; and E. R. Pardyjak and M. B. Parlange

Persistent Cold Air Pools in Mountainous Areas: Distribution and Simulation
Xia Sun, Univ. of Nevada, Reno, NV; and S. Colgan, C. E. Ivey, and H. A. Holmes

Downscaling Precipitation Forecast with Super-High Resolution
Xufeng Guo, Shanghai Em-Data Technology Co., Ltd, Shanghai, China; and Z. Liu, H. Zuo, Y. Xiao, Z. Yan, and C. Lu

Development of High-Resolution Japan Regional Reanalysis
Toshiki Iwasaki, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan; and S. Fukui, K. Saito, and H. Seko

Projection and Possible causes of Summer Precipitation in Eastern China Using Self-Organizing Map
Zhihong Jiang, Nanjing Univ. of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China; and M. Li

The Implementation of a High-Resolution Mesoscale Model Test Bed for the New York City Metropolitan Area
Anthony P. Praino, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY; and L. A. Treinish, C. D. Watson, and M. Tewari

Single-Suite Stochasticity for Thunderstorms: Can It Beat a Mixed-Physics Suite?
John R. Lawson, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin, N. Yussouf, and J. S. Kain

The Effect of the North American Monsoon Anticyclone on Cross-tropopause Convective Outflow
Corey E. Clapp, Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Cambridge, MA; and J. B. Smith, K. Bedka, and J. G. Anderson

Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Joint Panel Discussion 4
Future Challenges in Weather Analysis and Forecasting (Centennial)
Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP); the Special Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice; and the Eighth Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation's Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events )
Moderators: S. W. Bieda III, NWSFO; Ryan A. Lagerquist, CIMMS
Panelists: Louis Uccellini, NOAA; Marshall Shepherd, Univ. of Georgia; Yvette Richardson, Pennsylvania State Univ.; Peter Neilley, The Weather Company, an IBM Business; Betty Davis, WPLG ABC 10, Miami-Dade; Neil A. Jacobs, Acting Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Joint Session 13
Joint Session on Scales Interactions and Predictability – In memory of Fuqing Zhang: Part I
Location: 104C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Fourth Symposium on Multiscale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Weather, Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction; the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP); the 24th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); and the Fifth Symposium on US-International Partnerships )
Chair: Kerry Emanuel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
8:30 AM
J13.1
The role of observations in advancing Earth science prediction (Invited Presentation)
G. L. Stephens, JPL, Pasadena, CA

9:00 AM
J13.2
Data Assimilation and Ensembles: Two Invaluable Tools to Increase Predictability and Quantify Uncertainty (Invited Presentation)
Roberto Buizza, Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Pisa, Italy

9:30 AM
J13.3
Forecast error growth of convective processes through nonlinear interaction between dynamical and moisture initialization uncertainties (Invited Presentation)
Masashi Minamide, JPL, Pasadena, CA; JPL, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and F. Zhang and D. J. Posselt

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


AM Coffee Break (Tuesday)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Session 4A
Advances in Dynamics and Physics of Numerical Weather Models - I
Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Cochairs: Jessie C. Carman, OAR; Louisa Nance, NCAR and Developmental Testbed Center
10:30 AM
4A.1
Vertical Resolution Requirements for NWP models
William C. Skamarock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Snyder, J. Klemp, and S. H. Park

10:45 AM
4A.2
The Navy’s Next-Generation NEPTUNE Modeling System
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and A. Reinecke, J. Michalakes, K. C. Viner, S. Gabersek, M. Martini, D. D. Flagg, D. R. Ryglicki, A. Huang, and F. X. Giraldo

11:00 AM
4A.3
Dynamics-Physics Coupling in the New GEM Dynamical Core with Height-Based Vertical Coordinate
Syed Zahid Husain, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and C. Girard and A. Qaddouri

11:15 AM
4A.4
Vertical Extension of NCEP FV3 for Whole Atmospheric Modeling
Hann-Ming Henry Juang, NCEP, College Park, MD; and S. K. Kar and A. Kubaryk

11:30 AM
4A.5
Upgrade of Land Surface Processes in Jma's Operational Global NWP Model
Takashi Nabetani, JMA, Tokyo, Japan; and T. Tokuhiro, C. Matsukawa, and H. Yonehara

11:45 AM
4A.6
A Generalized Z-Grid Numerical Prediction Model for Improving Stability and Efficiency
Yuanfu xie, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China


Session 4B
Analysis and Forecasting of Winter Weather - I
Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Chair: Martin A. Baxter, Central Michigan University
10:30 AM
4B.1
Application of Recent Northeast Cool Season CSTAR Conceptual Models to Three March 2018 Snowstorms Impacting Eastern New York and Western New England
Thomas A. Wasula, NOAA/NWS, Albany, NY; and M. S. Evans

10:45 AM
4B.2
Use of Gridded Snowfall from NOAA’s Office of Water Prediction at the Weather Prediction Center
Gregory W. Carbin, NOAA/NWS/Weather Prediction Center, College Park, MD; and G. Fall and D. Petersen

11:00 AM
4B.3
How Should Snow Squall Warnings be Verified?
Peter C. Banacos, NWS, Burlington, VT

11:15 AM
4B.4
Maximizing Interactive Decision Support Services for Road Maintenance and Visitors at Yosemite National Park by Identifying Biases in HRRR Snow Level Predictions
Kristian Mattarochia, NWS, Hanford, CA

11:30 AM
4B.5
Characteristics of Sea-Effect Precipitation Systems in the Heavy Snow Region of Japan
W. James Steenburgh, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and P. G. Veals, T. West, T. M. Gowan, and S. Nakai

11:45 AM
4B.6
What Allows Some Freezing Rain Events to Persist for Many Hours? A Focus on Dynamic and Thermodynamic Processes
Christopher D. McCray, McGill University, Montréal, QC, Canada; and J. R. Gyakum and E. H. Atallah


Joint Session 17
Joint Session on Scales Interactions and Predictability – In memory of Fuqing Zhang: Part II
Location: 104C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Fourth Symposium on Multiscale Predictability: Data-model Integration and Uncertainty Quantification for Weather, Climate and Earth System Monitoring and Prediction; the Fifth Symposium on US-International Partnerships; the 24th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); and the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) )
Chair: Sharanya Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS
10:30 AM
J17.1
Impermeability and constraints on tropical-extratropical and interhemispheric communication (Invited Presentation)
Peter J. Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and V. Toma, C. D. Hoyos, S. Ortega, G. L. Stephens, and G. N. Kiladis

11:00 AM
J17.2
Ensemble Prediction and Predictability of Extreme Weather on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Time Scales using Circulation Regimes (Invited Presentation)
David M. Straus, George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA; and K. Pegion

11:30 AM
J17.3
Atmospheric Predictability of the Tropics, Middle Latitudes, and Polar Regions Explored Through Global Storm-Resolving Simulations (Invited Presentation)
Falko Judt, NCAR, Boulder, CO

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Lunch Break (Tuesday)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Session 5A
Advances in Dynamics and Physics of Numerical Weather Models - II
Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Cochairs: Jessie C. Carman, OAR; Louisa Nance, NCAR and Developmental Testbed Center
1:30 PM
5A.1
Evaluation of Boundary Layer Structure in NWP models
Robert G. Fovell, Univ. at Albany SUNY, Albany, NY

1:45 PM
5A.2
Modeling Large and Small Lake Temperature and Ice Evolution in the Rap/HRRR Models
E. P. James, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO; and T. G. Smirnova, S. Benjamin, P. Y. Chu, E. J. Anderson, G. E. Mann, and A. Fujisaki

2:00 PM
5A.3
Development of Multiple-Nest Capability in the Operational Global Forecast System
Xuejin Zhang, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and W. Ramstrom, A. Hazelton, L. Harris, T. Black, S. Gopalakrishnan, and F. Marks

2:15 PM
5A.4
Evaluating Simulated Microphysics in the Pacific Northwest: Evidence for a Warm Rain Problem
Robert Conrick, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass


Session 5B
Analysis and Forecasting of Winter Weather - II
Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Chair: Christopher McCray, McGill Univ.
1:30 PM
5B.1
Influence of Atmospheric Rivers on Long-Duration Freezing Rain Events in Eastern North America
Douglas Miller, University of North Carolina Asheville, Asheville, NC

1:45 PM
5B.2
The Influence of Diabatic Heating on the Development of Two North American Jet Superposition Events
Andrew C. Winters, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO

2:00 PM
5B.3
Extreme Cold-Season Precipitation Regimes in Eastern North America: A Multi-Scale Dynamic-Thermodynamic Analysis
John R. Gyakum, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and E. H. Atallah and Y. Low

2:15 PM
5B.4
The Intense High Plains “Bomb” Cyclone of 12–14 March 2019
Lance F. Bosart, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and T. C. Leicht and A. K. Mitchell


Joint Session 7B
Probabilistic Hydrometeorological Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis - I
Hosts: (Joint between the 34th Conference on Hydrology; the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP); and the 26th Conference on Probability and Statistics )
Chair: Huiling Yuan, Nanjing Univ.
Cochairs: Kristie Franz, Iowa State University; Shugong Wang, NASA GSFC/SAIC; Christopher J. Melick, 557th Weather Wing
1:30 PM
J18.1
A Historical Perspective on Hydrometeorological Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis (Core Science Keynote) (Invited Presentation) (Centennial)
Qingyun Duan, Hohai University, Nanjing, China; and H. Yuan and K. Franz

2:00 PM
J18.2
What Makes a "Good" Probabilistic Forecast?
K. Scharfenberg, NWS, Boulder, CO; and A. Bol, R. Graham, P. L. Heinselman, T. Alcott, H. E. Brooks, P. Skinner, K. Hoogewind, and A. Lamers

2:15 PM
J18.3
Deeper Insights into Winter Weather via Probabilistic Snowfall Forecasts from The Weather Company
James I. Belanger, The Weather Company, Brookhaven, GA; and J. K. Williams, J. P. Koval, J. McDonald, P. Bayer, N. McGillis, L. Howard, and R. L. Weeks

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


PM Coffee Break (Tuesday)

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Session 6A
Advances in Dynamics and Physics of Numerical Weather Models - III
Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Cochairs: Louisa Nance, NCAR and Developmental Testbed Center; Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER
3:00 PM
6A.1
Linking NEPTUNE with NAVDAS-AR: A Cycling NWP System coupling a 3D Spectral Element model and 4DVar Data Assimilation
Kevin Viner, NRL, Monterey, CA; and D. R. Ryglicki, P. A. Reinecke, J. Doyle, and B. S. Chua

3:15 PM
6A.2
Combining the Common Community Physics Package with a Single Column Model to Drive NWP Physics Advancements
Grant J. Firl, NCAR, and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and D. Heinzeller, L. Xue, and L. Bernardet

3:30 PM
6A.3
Advances in Model Physics for the Next Implementation of the GFS (GFSv16)
John S. Kain, NOAA, College Park, MD; and S. Moorthi, F. Yang, R. Yang, H. Wei, Y. Wu, Y. T. Hou, H. M. lin, V. A. Yudin, J. C. Alpert, V. Tallapragada, and R. Sun

3:45 PM
6A.4
The Ice Particle and Aggregate Simulator (IPAS): Investigating Aggregate Properties Using a Multi-Faceted Modeling Approach
Vanessa M. Przybylo, SUNY-Albany, Albany, NY; and K. Sulia, C. G. Schmitt, and Z. J. Lebo


Session 6B
Analysis and Forecasting of Winter Weather - III
Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Chair: Sam Ng, Metropolitan State University
3:00 PM
6B.1
Measurements of Hazardous Winter Precipitation in the Saint Lawrence River Valley
Mathieu Lachapelle, UQAM, Montreal, QC, Canada; and J. M. Thériault

3:15 PM
6B.2
Microphysical Characteristics of Snowbands along the U.S. Northeast Coast Using In Situ Surface and Radar Observations and Simulations
Brian A. Colle, Stony Brook Univ., Stony Brook, NY; and M. Oue and P. Kollias

3:30 PM
6B.3
Lessons Learned from the Real-Time Implementation of the Spectral Bin Classifier Surface Precipitation Type Algorithm
Andrew A. Rosenow, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and H. D. Reeves

3:45 PM
6B.4
The Relationship Between Simulated Reflectivity and Precipitation Across Different Microphysics Schemes in a Banded Snowfall Event
Martin A. Baxter, Central Michigan University, Mt. Pleasant, MI


Joint Session 24
Probabilistic Hydrometeorological Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis - II
Hosts: (Joint between the 34th Conference on Hydrology; the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP); and the 26th Conference on Probability and Statistics )
Chair: Huiling Yuan, Nanjing Univ.
Cochairs: Kristie Franz, Iowa State University; Shugong Wang, NASA GSFC/SAIC; Christopher J. Melick, 557th Weather Wing
3:00 PM
J24.1
Contribution of infiltration process uncertainty on the simulation of terrestrial water and energy budgets
Shugong Wang, NASA GSFC/SAIC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. V. Kumar, D. M. Mocko, J. W. Wegiel, and C. D. Peters-Lidard

3:15 PM
J24.2
Evaluation of Entropy-Based Optimization Criteria for Precipitation-Monitoring Networks
Heshu Li, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; and D. Wang and Y. Wang

3:30 PM
J24.3
Improving Water Forecasting with Bayesian Averaging of Multiple forecasts
Ali Jozaghi, Univ. of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX; and M. Ghazvinian, D. J. Seo, Y. Zhang, E. Welles, S. Reed, and M. A. Fresch

3:45 PM
J24.4
Evaluation of Probabilistic Convective Precipitation Forecasts over South China Using GRAPES Convective-scale Ensemble
Jing Chen, Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 14 January 2020


Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Tues)

Joint Poster Session 2
Probabilistic Hydrometeorological Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis - Posters
Location: Hall B1 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 34th Conference on Hydrology; the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP); and the 26th Conference on Probability and Statistics )
Chair: Huiling Yuan, Nanjing Univ.
Cochairs: Kristie Franz, Iowa State University; Shugong Wang, NASA GSFC/SAIC; Christopher J. Melick, 557th Weather Wing
The Scale Sensitivity Experiments of Precipitation Neighborhood Ensemble Probability Method
Xueqing Liu, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Zhejiang Branch, Hangzhou, China; and J. Chen

Investigation of the Added Value of Using Statistically Postprocessed GEFS Ensemble Forecasts as Alternative Forcings for the WRF-Hydro National Water Model (NWM)
Michael Scheuerer, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and F. Viterbo, M. Hughes, and A. R. Thorstensen

Merging Soil Moisture Multi-model Products Based on Dynamic Bayesian Model Averaging
Yong Chen, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing, China; and H. Yuan

The Uncertainty of GFS over the Eastern Asia: Error Analysis and Correction Using Optical Flow Method
Xue Zhong Wang, National Univ. of Defense Technology, Nanjing, China; and J. Wang, H. Huang, W. Zhang, B. Hu, and F. Lin

Sensitivity of ensemble forecast verification to model bias
Jingzhuo Wang, CMA(China Meteorological Administration), Beijing, China; and J. Chen and J. Du

Streamflow Forecasting Using Long Short-Term Memory Network
Lingling Ni, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; and D. Wang and J. Wu

A Multi-Scale Post-Processing Technique for Short-to-Long Range Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
Babak Alizadeh, Univ. of Texas, Arlington, TX; and R. A. Limon, D. J. Seo, H. Lee, and J. D. Brown

Evaluation of GloFASv2 hydrological forecast skill at the global scale
Shaun Harrigan, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom; and E. Zsoter, D. A. Lavers, L. Alfieri, C. Prudhomme, H. Cloke, D. S. Richardson, P. Salamon, E. Stephens, and F. Pappenberger

Seasonal Forecast of Early-summer Rainfall at Stations in South China using Statistical Downscaling and BMA
Zheng Lu, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; and Y. Guo and J. Zhu

Coupled rainfall-runoff hydrometric network design method based on information theory
Wenqi Wang, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; and D. Wang and Y. Wang

How Circulation Adjustment Affects the Axial Error of the Precipitation Forecast
Hong Huang, National Univ. of Defense Technology, Nanjing, China; and Y. Liu, X. Z. Wang, J. Wang, and W. Zhang

Assessment of the Sea-surface Temperature Predictability based on Multimodel Hindcasts
SHOUWEN ZHANG, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, BEIJING, China

Multiscale Characteristics of Different-Source Perturbations and Their Interactions for Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasting during SCMREX
Xubin Zhang, Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, CMA, Guangzhou, China

Reducing Bias in Flash Drought Forecasts by Optimizing Parameters in Noah-MP Multiple Parameterization Schemes
Ye Tian, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; and Z. L. Yang and J. Liang


Poster Session
30WAF/26NWP Tuesday Poster Session
Location: Hall B1 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Designing a Process for Selecting, Vetting, and Implementing Physics Innovations in a Community Modeling Paradigm
John S. Kain, NOAA, College Park, MD; and L. R. Bernardet, V. Tallapragada, F. Yang, G. Manikin, R. Vasic, J. Doyle, C. Bretherton, G. Grell, J. Olson, S. Moorthi, A. Cheng, J. Dudhia, L. K. Bengtsson, J. W. Bao, and M. Harrold

Toward Consistent Physical Constant Sets for Interoperable Earth System Models
Sue Chen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Montuoro, L. Marx, S. Goldhaber, N. P. Barton, T. J. Campbell, C. DeLuca, B. Li, D. McCarren, J. Meixner, M. Vertenstein, N. Zadeh, J. Infanti, B. R. Brown, R. Dunlap, and G. Theurich

Verification of the Physics Suite Testing for GFS v16 Using the Model Evaluation Tools
Michelle Harrold, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Wolff, M. Zhang, T. Hertneky, L. Bernardet, J. K. Henderson, L. R. Blank, W. Li, L. Pan, G. Firl, and T. Jensen

An Evaluation of Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) Physics Suites Across Scales
Kathryn M. Newman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. J. Hertneky, E. A. Kalina, M. Harrold, L. Pan, G. Firl, E. D. Grell, L. Carson, and M. Ek

One-Stop Shopping for Physics across Scales: From a Single-Column Model to Three-Dimensional Configurations for Weather and S2S
Linlin Pan, NOAA/GSD, Univ. of Colorado/CIRES, and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; NOAA, Boulder, CO; and L. Bernardet, D. Heinzeller, E. Kalina, G. Firl, E. Grell, K. Newman, L. Carson, and G. Grell

Coupling Flake with GFSv15
Yihua Wu, NCEP, College Park, MD; and J. Wang, J. S. Kain, and V. Tallapragada

The Effect of Moist Physics and Resolution on Baroclinic Wave Evolution in an Idealized Simulation
Kurtis Allen Schubeck, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

Weather Forecasting with a Non-Hydrostatic Global Atmospheric Prediction System on a Cubed Sphere Grid
SongYou Hong, KIAPS, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South)

Challenges in Improving the Representation of Mesoscale Kinetic Energy in NWP Models
Jih-Wang Aaron Wang, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh

Evaluation of the Performance of the WRF Model over the United Arab Emirates
Ricardo Morais Fonseca, Khalifa Univ. of Science and Technology, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; and M. Temimi, M. Weston, N. R. Nelli, M. S. Thota, and V. Valappil

Sensitivity of Summer Convective Precipitation to Dynamical Core Configurations in GEM Model
Rabah Aider, Recherche en prévision numérique, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada; and S. Gaudreault

Towards an Optimal Configuration of Dynamics and Physics for GEFS v12
Bing Fu, NCEP, College Park, MD; IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and X. Zhou, Y. Zhu, J. Peng, and D. Hou

Grid Refinement in a Global Spectral Element Model
Alex Reinecke, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Martini, J. Michalakes, J. D. Doyle, D. D. Flagg, A. Huang, and D. R. Ryglicki

NWP Prediction at ESRL/GSD: Overview of Global Modeling Development Activities
Georg A. Grell, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and H. C. Barnes, S. Sun, L. Bernardet, R. Montuoro, H. Li, B. W. Green, T. G. Smirnova, L. Zhang, J. Olson, R. Ahmadov, and R. Bleck

Full Velocity Field Reconstruction on Icosahedral Grids for Shallow-Water Model
Yonggang G. Yu, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and N. Wang, Y. Xie, and M. W. Govett

Development of an Online Ozone and UV Index Prediction System

Development and Performance of the GFDL Global Prediction System - SHiELD
Linjiong Zhou, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and S. J. Lin, L. Harris, K. Gao, B. Xiang, M. A. Bender, and J. H. Chen

Evaluating and Tuning Orographic Gravity Wave Drag Parameterizations in Atmospheric NWP Models
Michael D. Toy, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. B. Olson, T. G. Smirnova, J. S. Kenyon, J. M. Brown, and G. A. Grell

Implementation of CLUBB in COAMPS
Yi Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Wang

A Comparison of Multi-Dynamic Core vs. Single-Dynamic Core Multi-Physics Ensemble Design for Convection-allowing Forecasting Initialized by the Multiscale EnVar Data Assimilation System
X. Wang, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and N. A. Gasperoni

Classification of Weather Patterns over the East Asia Region using Clustering Analysis
Young-Jun Cho, NIMS, KMA, Seogwipo-si, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. C. Lee, B. Lim, and S. B. Kim

Assessing the Robustness of Microphysical Process Representation in an Adaptive Habit Model by Means of Stochastic Parameterizations
Lauriana C. Gaudet, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. Sulia

Classification of Heat Wave Weather Patterns for the Probabilistic Ensemble Medium-range Forecast in South Korea
Hyeon-Cheol Lee, NIMS, KMA, Seogwipo-si, Korea, Republic of (South)

Using a Coupled FV3GFS-FVCOM Modeling System to Improve Lake-Effect Snowfall Forecasts
David M. Wright, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and C. Jablonowski, A. Fujisaki-Manome, P. Y. Chu, E. J. Anderson, G. E. Mann, and B. M. Lofgren

Unified Forecast System: Considerations for Transition to Operations
Ivanka Stajner, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and T. Jensen, G. Manikin, J. J. Levit, V. Tallapragada, F. Yang, and R. Treadon

Implementation of Radar Data Assimilation Capabilities within Ensemble-Variational Hybrid GSI for the Stand-Alone Regional FV3-Based Convection-Allowing Forecasting System
Chong-Chi Tong, CAPS, Norman, OK; and Y. Jung, C. Liu, and M. Xue

A Climatology of Snow to Liquid Ratios in Alaska
David E. Levin, NOAA/NWS, Juneau, AK

The Case of Cold Air Damming in Response to Topographical Influence Created by the Ozark Plateau
Jon Bongard, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market and J. Hunter

A Comparison of Boundary Layer Parameterizations and Sensitivity to Vertical Resolution with the 3-km FV3 Stand-Alone Regional Model for a Lake Effect Snow Event
Edward Strobach, IMSG and NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and E. Aligo and J. R. Carley

WRF Simulation, PBL Sensitivity, and Analysis of the December 2013 New England Ice Storm
Julia M. Simonson, University of Maine, Orono, ME; and S. D. Birkel, K. A. Maasch, P. A. Mayewski, B. Lyon, and A. M. Carleton

The January 30, 2019 Northeast US Snow Squall Event: An Operational Perspective
Jonathan O'Brien, NWS Mount Holly, New Jersey, Westampton, NJ

Traffic Fatalities in Winter: An Evaluation of Weather Regimes and NWS Guidance During Killer Storms
Joseph Burzdak, Western Connecticut State Univeristy, Danbury, CT; and A. A. Rosenow, H. D. Reeves, and S. L. Handler

An Overview on the 13 March 2019 Explosive Cyclogenesis Event Over Southern Colorado and the Impact Based Decision Support Service Provided by the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Pueblo, Colorado
Klint T Skelly, NWS, Pueblo, CO; and G. Heavener

Analyzing Winter Weather and Climate Trends of the Ski Resorts in North Carolina Through the Use of Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) Stations
Danika Leigh Mosher, East Tennessee State University, Jonesborough, TN; and T. A. Joyner and I. E. Luffman

Environmental Controls on Banded Versus Cellular Organization of Mesoscale Snow Squalls in Western South Dakota
Leanna Bender, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and A. J. French

Winter Storms and Associated Precipitation Causing Power Outages Over the Province of New Brunswick, Canada
Julien Chartrand, UQAM, Montréal, QC, Canada; and J. M. Thériault

Importance of Physical Parameterization for Snowfall Forecasts: Implications from a Case Study of Heavy Snowfall over the Southern Coast of Japan
Ginga Akimoto, JMA, Tokyo, Japan

Assessing the Predictability of WRF Precipitaiton Forecasts for the Bay Area
Paul Zechiel, San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA; and S. Chiao

NOAA’s National Snowfall Analysis: Technical Description and Evaluation
Greg Fall, NOAA/NWS, Chanhassen, MN; and K. H. Sparrow

A Climatological Analysis of Snow Band Predictability in Northeast Winter Storms Including Case Studies
Mark Nissenbaum, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart

Improving Snow-to-Liquid Ratio and Snowfall Forecasts in the Western United States
Michael Wessler, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Steenburgh

Intraseasonal Variability of Cloud Cover in Mid-Latitude during Boreal Winter
Reona SATOH, Fukuoka University, Fukuoka, Japan; and N. NISHI and H. MUKOUGAWA

Assimilation of GPM-Retrieved Surface Meteorology Variables for Two Winter Storms
X. Li, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. Srikishen, J. B. Roberts, W. A. Petersen, and C. R. Hain

Evaluation of Hourly Snow-to-Liquid Ratios Algorithms for the United States Air Force
Christopher J. Melick, 557th Weather Wing, Offutt Air Force Base, NE; and W. T. Sedlacek, S. Augustyn, R. J. Craig, G. Brooks, D. L. Keller, S. Rentschler, E. Kuchera, C. Hoover, J. Foote, and M. A. Baxter

Formation and Evolution of the Strong Great Lakes New Year's Eve 2017 Mesovortex
Nathan Marsili, NOAA/NWS, Syracuse, IN

The Influence of Turbulence Parameterizations on the 2 March 2018 Snowstorm
Matthew T. Vaughan, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. G. Fovell

Characterizing and Constraining Uncertainty Associated with Surface and Boundary Layer Turbulent Fluxes in Simulations of Lake-Effect Snowfall
Justin Minder, University at Albany, Albany, NY; and W. M. Bartolini

Exploring the Predictability of Synoptically Induced Cold Air Damming in the Eastern US
Thomas Hopson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. C. Knievel and M. Frediani

Evaluation of Winter Weather Prediction during Extreme Snowfall Events
Michael Walters, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT; and J. Yang, M. Koukoula, and M. Astitha

1 Month-Lead Predictability of Asian Summer Monsoon Indices Based on the Zonal Winds using APCC Multi-model Ensemble
Joong-Bae Ahn, Pusan National University, Busan, WI, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. J. Park and V. Kryjov

The Current Development Status of the Next Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System (JMA/MRI-CPS3) : Part2
Jotaro Chiba, JMA, Tokyo, Japan

Subseasonal Bias and Skill in FV3 Simulations Using Two Different Physics Suites
Benjamin W. Green, CIRES, Boulder, CO; NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and S. Sun, G. A. Grell, and S. G. Benjamin

Progress on the Development of a Coupled Forecast System for Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction at NCEP/EMC
Bin Li, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and J. Meixner, J. Wang, D. Worthen, L. Stefanova, J. Wang, S. Saha, S. Moorthi, R. Grumbine, A. Chawla, and A. Mehra

A Shift Towards Probabilistic Seasonal Forecasts at the Weather Company, an IBM Business
Michael J Ventrice, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, Andover, MA; and J. Belanger, T. Crawford, and J. Williams

Accelerating Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Modeling and Improving Week 3-4 Forecast with Unified Forecast System: Plan and Progress
Y. Xue, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. M. Koch, V. Tallapragada, D. DeWitt, T. Hamill, J. Kinter, C. Stan, L. Harris, and J. C. Carman

Sensitivity of the 2012 Arctic Cyclone to Sea Ice and Atmospheric Initial Conditions
Tomer Burg, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. M. Cavallo

Medium-Range Predictability of Historical Extreme Precipitation Events Associated with Mid-Upper Tropospheric Flow Reversal
Shawn M. Milrad, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical Univ., Daytona Beach, FL; and E. Atallah and J. Gyakum

Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Session 7A
Analysis and Forecasting of Mesoscale Weather Phenomena - I
Location: 151A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Chair: Andrew C. Winters, University of Colorado Boulder
8:30 AM
7A.1
Hand Analysis in a Digital Age
Barbara Mayes Boustead, NWS, Norman, OK; and H. Wells, R. Edwards, and J. M. Boustead

8:45 AM
7A.2
Mesoscale Processes Influencing Convective Morphology During the 26-27 April 2011 Tornado Outbreak
Manda B. Chasteen, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. E. Koch

9:00 AM
7A.3
On the Changes in MCS Cold Pool Characteristics due to Simultaneous Changes in Horizontal and Vertical Grid Spacing in WRF Runs
Brian Joseph Squitieri, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr.

9:15 AM
7A.4
Sensitivity of Boundary Layer Characteristics and related Low-Level Jet Behavior to Planetary Boundary Layer Schemes in the WRF Model for several MCS cases
Michael J. Garberoglio, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr.

9:30 AM
7A.5
Analysis of Back-Building Convection in Simulations with a Strong Low-Level Stable Layer
Stacey M. Hitchcock, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; and R. S. Schumacher

9:45 AM
7A.6
General Features of Radar‐Observed Boundary Layer Convergence Lines and Their Associated Convection over a Sharp Vegetation‐Contrast Area
Zhiyong Meng, Peking University, Beijing, China; and Y. Huang, W. Li, L. Bai, and X. Meng


Session 7B
Severe Weather: Predictability, Uncertainty and Best Use of Forecast Information - I
Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Cochairs: Marina Astitha, Univ. of Connecticut; Malaquias Pena, SAIC and EMC/NCEP/NOAA; Bruce Telfeyan, 557 Weather Wing
8:30 AM
7B.1
Compared to What? Establishing Environmental Baselines for Tornado Warning Skill
Alexandra K. Anderson-Frey, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and H. E. Brooks

8:45 AM
7B.2
A Review of NCEP’s Convection-Allowing Model Guidance for the 20 May 2019 Southern Plains High Risk Day
Logan C. Dawson, I.M. Systems Group, Inc. and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and A. M. Bentley, T. A. Dorian, and G. S. Manikin

9:00 AM
7B.3
Extended U.S. Tornado Outbreak During Late May 2019: A Forecast of Opportunity
Victor A. Gensini, Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb, IL; and D. Gold, J. Allen, and B. S. Barrett

9:15 AM
7B.4
Detailed Differences Between HRRRv3 and HRRRv4 Forecasts for the 20 May 2019 Severe Weather Event
Jeffrey D. Duda, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and C. Alexander

9:30 AM
7B.5
Using Improved Object-based Probabilistic Methodology to Optimize CAM Ensemble Design for Severe Weather Forecasting Applications
Andrew C Wilkins, University of Oklahoma School of Meteorology, Norman, OK; and A. Johnson and X. Wang

9:45 AM
7B.6
Revising Hazard Intensity Information in Storm Prediction Center Outlooks: A Hazardous Weather Testbed Experiment
Race Clark III, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, P. T. Marsh, R. Schneider, and B. T. Gallo


Joint Session 34
Advances in Data Assimilation, Verification, and Probabilistic Forecasting of Aviation Weather Hazards
Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP); and the 20th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology )
Chair: Stephanie Avey, AWC
CoChair: Stanley B. Trier, NCAR
8:30 AM
J34.1
1955-2019 – How NWP Has Evolved to Improve Safety and Efficiency for Aviation (Invited Presentation)
Stan Benjamin, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Brown

9:00 AM
J34.2
Development of and Implementation Strategies for the Unified Forecast System at NCEP to Assist with Forecasting Aviation Weather Hazards
Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and G. S. Manikin, J. R. Carley, and M. E. Pyle

9:15 AM
J34.3
Use of Storm-Scale Ensemble Data Assimilation for Initializing the Deterministic HRRR and Use of Hrrre Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasts to Provide Probabilistic Aviation Hazard Guidance
Steve Weygandt, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and D. C. Dowell, G. Ge, T. T. Ladwig, C. Alexander, M. Hu, E. James, J. S. Kenyon, I. Jankov, T. Smirnova, J. B. Olson, and S. G. Benjamin

9:30 AM
J34.4
A Commercial Airline's Use of The Weather Company/IBM's Current Condition Assimilation System for Flight Operations in the Caribbean
Joseph P. Koval, The Weather Company - An IBM Business, Atlanta, GA; and B. Krajewski, D. Winn, and I. Rahman

9:45 AM
J34.5
The Analysis of Short-Term Operational Wind Forecasts and Implications for Aircraft Operations in Terminal Areas*
Timothy Bonin, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and W. J. Dupree, R. F. Ferris, D. D. Moradi, and D. Clark


Joint Session 35
Physical Interpretability in Machine Learning
Location: 260 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 26th Conference on Probability and Statistics; the 19th Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; and the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) )
Cochairs: Elizabeth Satterfield, NRL; Philippe Tissot, Texas A&M University - Corpus Christi
8:30 AM
J35.1
Multi-resolution Cluster Analysis - Addressing Trust in Climate Classification
Derek DeSantis, LANL, Los Alamos, NM; and P. Wolfram and B. Alexandrov

8:45 AM
J35.2
Understanding What Deep Learning Has Learned About Tornadoes
Ryan A. Lagerquist, CIMMS, Norman, OK; and A. McGovern, D. J. Gagne II, C. R. Homeyer, and T. M. Smith

9:00 AM
J35.3
Selected Methods from Explainable AI to Improve Understanding of Neural Network Reasoning for Environmental Science Applications
Imme Ebert-Uphoff, CIRA - Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and K. Hilburn, B. A. Toms, and E. A. Barnes

9:15 AM
J35.4
Emulation of Bin Microphysical Processes with Machine Learning
David John Gagne II, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. C. Chen and A. Gettelman

9:30 AM
J35.5
Using Physically Interpretable Neural Networks to Discover Modes of Climate and Weather Variability
Benjamin A. Toms, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and E. A. Barnes and I. Ebert-Uphoff

9:45 AM
J35.6
Lessons Learned Using ML For Knowledge Discovery In the Atmospheric Sciences
Amy McGovern, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


AM Coffee Break (Wednesday)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Session 8A
Advances in Cloud- and Convection-resolving Numerical Weather Models - I
Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Cochairs: Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER; May Wong, NCAR
10:30 AM
8A.1
Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Model Development
C. Alexander, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and D. C. Dowell, M. Hu, J. Olson, T. Smirnova, T. Ladwig, S. Weygandt, J. S. Kenyon, E. James, H. Lin, G. Grell, G. Ge, T. Alcott, S. Benjamin, J. M. Brown, M. D. Toy, R. Ahmadov, A. Back, J. D. Duda, M. B. Smith, J. A. Hamilton, B. D. Jamison, I. Jankov, and D. D. Turner

10:45 AM
8A.2
Development of a Real-Time, HRRR-Like SAR-FV3 System at NOAA/ESRL/GSD
Jeff Beck, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CSU/CIRA, Boulder, CO; and G. Ketefian, C. Alexander, L. Reames, G. Gayno, D. Heinzeller, L. Pan, T. Smirnova, J. Purser, D. Jovic, T. Black, and J. R. Carley

11:00 AM
8A.3
How Do Forecasts from WRF-ARW and Stand-Alone Regional FV3 Compare?
John M. Brown, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and J. Beck, G. Ketefian, D. Heinzeller, B. D. Jamison, T. G. Smirnova, J. Olson, J. Kenyon, S. Weygandt, C. Alexander, G. A. Grell, and S. Benjamin

11:15 AM
8A.4
The Impacts of Global Convection-Permitting Resolution across Scales: From Tropical Convection to Global Subseasonal Teleconnections
Nicholas Weber, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass

11:30 AM
8A.5
IBM GRAF - Scale-Aware Convective Forecast Evaluation and Improvements
Brett A. Wilt, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, Andover, MA; and W. Wang

11:45 AM
8A.6
Revisiting Sensitivity to Horizontal Grid Spacing in Convection-Allowing Models Over the Central–Eastern United States Using a Large Dataset
Craig S. Schwartz, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. A. Sobash


Session 8B
Advances in Radar Usage for Weather Analysis and Forecasting - I
Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Chair: Gregory J. Stumpf, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory
10:30 AM
8B.1
Assimilation of Dual-Pol Radar Data into a Supercell Storm with a Variational Data Assimilation Scheme
Jidong Gao, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. Pan, G. Zhang, Y. Wang, P. L. Heinselman, and C. CUI

10:45 AM
8B.2
Tools to Improve Tornado Warning Performance for Supercells: ZDR/KDP Separation and Size Sorting Signals
M. L. Jurewicz Sr., NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and S. Loeffler, M. R. Kumjian, M. French, and C. M. Gitro

11:00 AM
8B.3
Impact of Assimilating Clear-Air Radial Velocity Observations on the Forecasting of Supercell Thunderstorm: An Observing System Simulation Experiment Study
Yongjie Huang, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang, C. Kerr, A. Mahre, T. Y. Yu, and D. J. Bodine

11:15 AM
8B.4
An Analysis of ZDR Arc Characteristics in a Large Sample of Supercell Storms
Matthew B. Wilson, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and M. S. Van Den Broeke

11:30 AM
8B.5
Using Characteristics of Tornadic Debris Signatures to Estimate Tornado Intensity
Samuel Emmerson, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. E. Nelson and R. L. Thompson

11:45 AM
8B.6
Probability of Detection of SPLASH Using Polarimetric Radar
Aaron M. Ward, NWSFO, Amarillo, TX; and M. R. Kumjian, S. W. Bieda III, and M. J. Bunkers


Session 8C
Analysis and Forecasting of Fire Weather
Location: 151A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Cochairs: S. W. Bieda III, NWSFO; Ryan A. Lagerquist, CIMMS
10:30 AM
9.1
From a Pyrocumulus to a Severe Thunderstorm: An Environmental Analysis of an Anomalous Southern Plains Wildfire
Kaitlin Ann Rutt, NWSFO, Amarillo, TX; and S. W. Bieda III, A. Ward, B. J. Simpson, T. T. Lindley, N. J. Nauslar, B. Curran, S. J. Fano, and P. J. Ware

10:45 AM
9.2
Coupled Weather-Fire Model Simulations of Extreme Winds and Fire Behavior during Recent Windstorm-Driven Wildfire Events
Janice L. Coen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Schroeder

11:00 AM
9.3
Using North American Regional Reanalysis Composites to Identify and Forecast Fire-Effective Synoptic Features in the Southern Great Plains
Matthew Ryan Beitscher, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and T. T. Lindley, C. M. Gravelle, and C. Graves

11:15 AM
9.4
Lightning-Ignited Fires in the Northwest United States and SPC Dry Thunderstorm Precipitation Thresholds
Abby E Sebol, NOAA Hollings Intern - NWS Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK; and E. M. Leitman and M. S. Elliott

11:30 AM
9.5
High-Resolution Future Projection of U.S. Wildfire Potential Trends
Emily K Brown, Centre College, Danville, KY; and J. Wang and Y. Feng

11:45 AM
9.6
Next-Generation OK-FIRE Modeling System
Michael D. Klatt, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK


Joint Session 39
Statistical Methods for Optimized Aviation Hazard Detection and Prediction
Hosts: (Joint between the 20th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; and the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) )
Chair: Ken Stone, NCAR
CoChair: Alex P. Korner, NOAA/NWS/NCEP
10:30 AM
J39.1
Statistical Methods for Diagnosing Aviation Hazards and Their Likelihood From Numerical Weather Prediction Models: Past, Present, and Future (Invited Presentation)
Judy E. Ghirardelli, NOAA/National Weather Service, Silver Spring, MD

11:00 AM
J39.2
Gridded LAMP Ceiling Height and Visibility Guidance for Alaska
Adam D. Schnapp, CIRA, Silver Spring, MD; and B. Glahn, J. E. Ghirardelli, and A. Bogusz

11:15 AM
J39.3
Development of LAMP Convection and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Forecast Guidance for Alaska and Beyond
Jerome Charba, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. G. Samplatsky, P. E. Shafer, J. E. Ghirardelli, and A. J. Kochenash

11:30 AM
J39.4
Satellite Cloud Vertical Cross-section Products and User-Engaged Improvement for Aviation Weather Applications
YJ. Noh, CIRA, Fort Collins, CO; CIRA, Fort Collins, CO; and S. D. Miller, J. M. Haynes, C. J. Seaman, J. H. Kim, and A. Heidinger

11:45 AM
J39.5
Volcanic Ash Forecast Verification using HYSPLIT and Satellite Ash Observations Identified by VOLCAT
Allison M. Ring, ARL, College Park, MD; Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies, College Park, MD; and A. Crawford, B. J. B. Stunder, J. Sieglaff, and M. J. Pavolonis

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Lunch Break (Wednesday)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Session 9A
Advances in Cloud- and Convection-resolving Numerical Weather Models - II
Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Cochairs: Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER; Glen Romine, NCAR
1:30 PM
10A.1
Evaluating the Boundary Layer Environment and Convective Storm Evolution from 3 km, Limited-Area FV3 Simulations at the 2019 Hazardous Weather Testbed
Tomer Burg, EMC, College Park, MD; and L. C. Dawson, G. Manikin, J. R. Carley, and B. T. Blake

1:45 PM
10A.2
Using a Stochastic Parameter Perturbation to Represent Process-Based Uncertainty in a Microphysics Parameterization
Maria Frediani, NCAR-RAL, Boulder, CO; and G. Thompson, J. Berner, J. A. Otkin, S. M. Griffin, and F. Kong

2:00 PM
10A.3
Comparison of Error Growth Characteristics in Convection-Permitting Ensembles
May Wong, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. S. Schwartz and G. S. Romine

2:15 PM
10A.4
Convection Permitting Lake-Coupled Simulations of the Lake Victoria Basin
Russell Henderson Glazer, The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, FL, Italy; and E. Coppola


Session 9B
Advances in Radar Usage for Weather Analysis and Forecasting - II
Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Chair: Gregory J. Stumpf, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory
1:30 PM
10B.1
Is a Real-Time Surface Precipitation Type Product Based on Observations from a Radar Network Any Good? a 5 Year Analysis from the United Kingdom.
Ben S. Pickering, NERC, Leeds, U.K.; and R. R. Neely III and S. Best

1:45 PM
10B.2
A New Long-term Radar Reflectivity Nowcasting Method based on DeepRNN
Xufeng Guo, Shanghai Em-Data Technology Co., Ltd, Shanghai, China; and Z. Liu, Y. Meng, G. Yao, Y. Xiao, Z. Yan, and C. Lu

2:00 PM
10B.3
Impacts of Assimilating WSR-88D Radar Observations on Snow Bands Embedded Within an Intense Northeast U.S. Cyclone
Keenan R. Fryer, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle

2:15 PM
10B.4
A Meteorologist Embedded with Engineers: Bringing NWS User Perspectives to the Design of Future Operational Weather Radar Systems
Jami B. Boettcher, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and F. Nai


Session 9C
Numerical Modeling of Wildfire and Wildfire Impacts
Location: 151A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Cochairs: S. W. Bieda III, NWSFO; Ryan A. Lagerquist, CIMMS
1:30 PM
10C.1
The 2017 Thomas Wildfire: Observations and Coupled Weather - Wildland Fire Modeling of Both Wind-Driven and Plume-Driven Fire Behavior during an Extended Santa Ana Event
Janice L. Coen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. P. Coulter, P. Riggan, G. Schag, W. Schroeder, D. Stow, and R. Tissell

1:45 PM
10C.2
Gridded Fuel Moisture Content Prediction System Utilizing Machine Learning Models Based on MODIS Satellite Observations
Tyler C. McCandless, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. Kosovic, W. Petzke, P. A. Jimenez, S. Massie, A. Anderson, A. DeCastro, and S. E. Haupt

2:00 PM
10C.3
A Wildland Fire Spotting Parameterization for the Weather Research and Forecasting Model
Timothy W Juliano, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. E. B. Frediani, B. Kosovic, J. C. Knievel, P. Jimenez Munoz, and D. Muñoz-Esparza

2:15 PM
10C.4
Southern California's Woolsey and Hill Fires: An Analysis of Fire Weather Conditions and High Resolution Model Output to Improve Weather Forecasts and Decision Support Services
Todd Hall, NOAA/NWS, Oxnard, CA

2:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


PM Coffee Break (Wednesday)

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Session 10A
Analysis and Forecasting of Mesoscale Weather Phenomena - II
Location: 151A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Chair: Andrew C. Winters, University of Colorado Boulder
3:00 PM
11A.1
Mesoscale Modification of Precipitation During Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers by Frontal Cyclogenesis
Andrew C. Martin, Portland State University, Portland, OR; Portland State University, Portland, OR; and A. C. Michaelis

3:15 PM
11A.2
Diabatic Contributions to the Formation and Evolution of Mesoscale Frontal Waves in Atmospheric River Events Along the U.S. West Coast
Allison C. Michaelis, SIO/Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, La Jolla, CA; and A. C. Martin, B. K. Kawzenuk, and F. M. Ralph

3:30 PM
11A.3
A Case Study of the Physical Processes Associated with the Atmospheric River Initial Condition Sensitivity from an Adjoint Model
Reuben Demirdjian, SIO/Univ. of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA

3:45 PM
11A.4
Terrain Effects on Frontogenesis and Snowfall Across the Southern Appalachians
Jeremy L. Buckles, NOAA/NWS, Morristown, TN; and A. Diegan


Session 10B
Severe Weather: Predictability, Uncertainty and Best Use of Forecast Information - II
Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Cochairs: Marina Astitha, Univ. of Connecticut; Malaquias Pena, SAIC and EMC/NCEP/NOAA; Bruce Telfeyan, 557 Weather Wing
3:00 PM
11B.1
Dynamics and Predictability of Sting-Jet Storm "Egon" over Continental Europe: Impact of Surface Properties and Model Resolution
Lea Eisenstein, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and F. Pantillon and P. Knippertz

3:15 PM
11B.2
Developing an Accumulating Hail Climatology for the National Weather Service Hanford, CA
Colin McKellar, NWS, Hanford, CA

3:30 PM
11B.3
A New Ensemble Simulation Analysis Considering Water Vapor Update History for Line-Shaped Rainband Heavy Rainfall Forecasting
Nana Kuroda, Graduate school of Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto city, Japan; and K. Yamaguchi and E. Nakakita

3:45 PM
11B.4
Vorticity power law in a simulated tornadic supercell
Huaqing Cai, U.S. Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, NM; and L. Bai and Z. Meng


Joint Session 46
Challenges in Communication and Decision Support Throughout the Research-to-Operations Nexus
Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP); the 10th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; and the Special Symposium on the Future of Weather, Forecasting, and Practice )
Chair: Gregory J. Stumpf, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory
3:00 PM
J46.1
A Summary of the Research Operations Nexus (RON) Meetups at NWA and AMS
Gregory J. Stumpf, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory, Norman, OK

3:15 PM
J46.2
Decision Support - What We Say and How We Say It Makes a Difference: A Look at Effective Communication toward Appropriate Partner Preparedness.
Eric Boldt, NWS, Oxnard, CA

3:30 PM
J46.3
Communicating Rip Current Risk with a Virtual Reality Video Game
Jase Bernhardt, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY; and G. Dusek and A. Hesse

3:45 PM
J46.4
Updates to the Winter Storm Severity Index for 2019/2020
Joshua Kastman, NOAA/NWS, College Park, MD; CIRES, Boulder, CO; and J. A. Nelson Jr.


Joint Session 50
High-Performance Computing for Numerical Weather Prediction - I
Location: 155 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the Sixth Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; and the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) )
Cochairs: Timothy S. Sliwinski, Texas Tech Univ.; Kandis Boyd, NOAA; Ryan A. Lagerquist, CIMMS
3:00 PM
J50.1
HPC Limitations in Running Global Cloud-Resolving Weather Prediction Models
Mark W. Govett, NOAA/ESRL Global Systems Division, Boulder, CO

3:15 PM
J50.2
Improving the Performance and Scalability of the Colorado Fire Prediction System (CO-FPS) Using Dynamic Cloud Resources
James Cowie, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Petzke, J. Boehnert, D. Brucker, N. Chartier, and J. Knievel

3:30 PM
J50.3
Computational Resources Optimization in NCEP Coupled Atmospheric-Wave-Chemistry Global Ensemble Forecast System
Dingchen Hou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and X. Xue, W. Kolczynski Jr., B. Fu, Y. Zhu, J. H. Alves, J. Meixner, L. Pan, and J. Kain

3:45 PM
J50.4
New Capabilities in FV3GFS Write Grid Component
Jun Wang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and D. Jovic, B. Liu, W. Meng, H. Y. Chuang, J. J. Levit, and A. chawla

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 15 January 2020


Formal Poster Viewing Reception (Wed)

Poster Session
30WAF/26NWP Wednesday Poster Session
Location: Hall B1 (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Wind Profiler and Surface Observations of Easterly Gap Flow and Precipitation in the Columbia River Gorge
Allen B. White, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and D. J. Gottas

A Comparison of the Current and Next Version of the HRRR for Some Recent High Impact Mesoscale Events
E. Szoke, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and C. Alexander, J. Brown, and T. Alcott

Application of Numerical Model in Visibility Forecast for Airports over Taiwan
Yi-Chiu Lin, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and L. J. Chen and J. P. Chen

Forecasting of Snowfall on the Southern Edge of the United States Snowfall Region in South Central Texas
Tim Springer, Univ. of the Incarnate Word, San Antonio, TX; University of the Incarnate Word, San Antonio, TX; and G. J. Mulvey

Analysis of the Relationship of Waterspout Day Frequency in the Florida Keys to Synoptic Scale Patterns
Andrew Devanas, NWS, Key West, FL; and L. Stefanova

Synoptic and Mesoscale Characteristics of Extreme Heat Events in Southern California
Brandt D. Maxwell, NOAA/NWS, San Diego, CA

Squall Lines and Extreme Rainfall in the Victoria, Australia Region
Stacey M. Hitchcock, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; and T. P. Lane

Observations of Sea-land Breeze Circulation in Surface Wind Time Series
Jewon Kim, Gangneung-Wonju National Univ., Gangneung, Korea, Republic of (South); and Y. Kwon and S. L. Kang

A study of WRF-Generated Lightning Strike Forecasts for the Southern Sierra Nevada
Alison F.C. Bridger, San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA; and D. Nguyen

Assimilating Ocean Observations from Autonomous Drones into a Regional Weather Model
Simona Seastrand, Saildrone, Alemeda, CA

A Climatology of High Non-Thunderstorm Winds in the Tennessee Valley
Kathleen M. Magee, National Weather Service, Huntsville, AL; and K. D. White

Similarities and Differences of Interactions among Synoptic and Msoscale Weather Systems during April 11 - 13 2019 and March 3 - 5 2019 2019 events
Ralph Johnson, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO

The Influence of Coastline on the Orientation of Squall Line
Hongjun Liu, Peking University, Beijing, China

The Mechanism and Predictability of an Elevated Convection Initiation Event in a Weak-Lifting Environment in Central-Eastern China
Murong Zhang, Peking Univ., Beijing, China; and Z. Meng

Warm-Sector Heavy Rainfall in Southern China and its WRF Forecast Evaluation: A Low-Level-Jet Perspective
Murong Zhang, Peking Univ., Beijing, China; and Z. Meng

Differences between Well-Forecast and Poorly-Forecast Bow Echo Events in the WRF
Ezio Luca Mauri, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr.

Differentiating Convective Cases with Upscale Growth into MCSs and those without Upscale Growth during PECAN
Zachary A. Hiris, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr.

The Instability in and Trigger Mechanism of Extreme Precipitation Event in Yili River Valley on July 31, 2016
Liu Jing, Institute of desert meteorology,China meteorological administration, Urumqi, China

A Novel Approach to Stratifying the Precipitation Time Series: A Precipitation Climatology for Montréal, Québec
Kai Melamed-Turkish, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and E. H. Atallah and J. R. Gyakum

Sounding Characteristics and Dual-Pol Signatures of Severe Hail Events across Central California
Andrew Bollenbacher, NWS, Hanford, CA

Using a Rotational Shear Nomogram to Classify Ambiguous Tornadoes Observed in Central California
Kristian Mattarochia, NWS, Hanford, CA

Analysis of Mesoscale Characteristics of a Torrential Rain in Hubei Province
Xianting Zhao, CMA, Wuhan, China; and X. Wang, J. Wang, and X. Wang

The Analysis on the Microphysics Characteristic of the Cloud Clusters Associated with the Eastward-Propagating MCV Along the East-Asia Monsoon Front
Chao Li, Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA, Wuhan, China

Characteristics Analysis on Heavy Rain over the Yangtze River Valley Induced by the Eastward-moving Cloud Clusters from the Tibetan Plateau
Wang xiaofang, Institute of Heavy Rain,CMA, Wuhan, China

Blending Technology of Radar Extrapolation and Meso-Scale Numerical Prediction Based on Python
Jun-Chao Wang, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan, China; and Z. Wang and A. Lai

Statistical Analysis of the Doppler Velocity Correction of Ka-band Cloud Radar and Microrain Radar Measurements
Xia Wan, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Adiministration, Wuhan, Wuhan, Hubei Province, China; and B. Xi

The Raindrop Size Distributions for Heavy Rainfall during Mei-yu in Middle of China
Zhikang Fu Sr., Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA, Wuhan, Wuhan, China; and X. Dong, L. Zhou, and W. Cui

Microphysical Process Study of Meiyu Precipitation Events over Central China
Lingli Zhou, Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA,Wuhan, Wuhan, China; and X. Dong and Z. Fu Sr.

The Synoptic Patterns associated with Extreme Precipitation over the Middle Reaches of Yangtze River during Mei-yu Season and its Application in Model Assessment
Yang Hu, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan, China, Wuhan, China

Characteristics of Ice Cloud-Precipitation of Warm Season Mesoscale Convective Systems over the Great Plains
Jingjing Tian, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and X. Dong and B. Xi

Multi-scale Temporospatial Variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Stationary Frontal System: Observation versus its Representation in the GFDL HiRAM
Yana Li, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China; The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and Y. Deng, S. Yang, H. Zhang, Y. Ming, and Z. Shen

The Impact of Tropical Cyclone and Monsoonal Circulation on Floods in the Grand Canyon
Brent Roberts, Brewer High School, Maine, Brewer, ME; and S. Jain

Resolving Sahelian Thunderstorms Improves Midlatitude Weather Forecasts
Gregor Pante, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and P. Knippertz

An Objective Measure of TC Size using the Evolution of the Area Of Closed Isobars - Algorithm, Resulting Climatology, and Physical Insights
Thomas B. McKenzie III, 21st Operational Weather Squadron, APO, AE; and R. E. Hart

Impact of Vertical Wind Shear on Gravity Wave Propagation in the Land-sea Breeze Circulation at the Equator
Yu Du, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Guangzhou, China; and R. Rotunno and F. Zhang

Cirrus Cloud-Top Height Estimation using Geostationary Satellite Split-Window Measurements Trained with CALIPSO and CloudSat data
NORIYUKI NISHI, Fukuoka University, Fukuoka, Japan; and A. Hamada and H. Hirose

Influence of Environmental Winds on Land-Sea Breeze Afternoon Thunderstorms Over Western Puerto Rico
Angelie T. Nieves Jiménez, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Ríos-Berríos, K. Werner, and K. Maull

On the Rainfall and Temperature Forecast Skill for a Tropical Andean Mountain Area in Northern South America Using Different Operational Weather Forecast Strategies: Role of the Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall on the Success of Data Assimilation
Mauricio Zapata, Sistema de Alerta Temprana del Valle de Aburrá (SIATA), Medellín, Colombia; and G. Guzmán, C. D. Hoyos, J. C. Hernández Díaz, L. I. Ceballos, S. M. López Zapata, and M. Guarin Vargas

Understanding Rapid Intensity Changes in Official Hurricane Intensity Forecast Error Distributions
Benjamin C. Trabing, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. M. Bell

Development and Evaluation of a Multi-Model Global Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Product
Alan Brammer, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and A. B. Schumacher and K. D. Musgrave

Numerical Model Forecast Tracks during Hurricane Florence (2018)
Frank P. Colby Jr., Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and A. B. Penny and M. Barlow

Developing the RAP/HRRR Physics Suite to Improve Tropical Shallow-Cumuli Structures Across the Grey Zone
J. Olson, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. Kenyon, J. Brown, W. M. Angevine, H. Vagasky, and G. Grell

The Meteorology of the November 2018 Camp Fire
Clifford F. Mass, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Ovens

Wildfire Impact on Environmental Thermodynamics and Severe Convective Storms
Yuwei Zhang, PNNL, Richland, WA; and J. Fan, T. Logan, Z. Li, and C. R. Homeyer

Identification of Forecast Biases to Improve Fire Danger Forecasts in Colorado
Brandon K. Cohen, Univ. of Louisiana Monroe, Monroe, LA; and P. T. Schlatter and L. Kriederman

Developing a Prescribed Fire Forecasting Algorithm for the Southeast U.S.
Charley Fite, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and A. Agastra and C. Holmes

Taking Advantage of Machine Learning Methods to Better Represent Fire Radiative Power (FRP) for Smoke and Weather Forecasting Models
Christina Kumler, NOAA/ESRL and CIRES, Boulder, CO; NOAA, Boulder, CO; and S. Maksimovic, J. Stewart, R. Ahmadov, and M. Govett

A Polarimetric Radar Forward Operator and Application for Convective Storm Initiation
X. Li, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. R. Mecikalski

Dual-polarization radar retrievals of coastal Pacific Northwest rain drop size distribution parameters using random forest regression
Robert Conrick, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. Zagrodnik and C. F. Mass

Linear Least-Squares Derivative Gradients of Single-Radar Products and Their Applications for Severe Weather
Thea Sandmael, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and B. R. Smith

The Assimilation of Dual Phased Array Weather Radar Observations on Short-Range Convective Forecasts
james taylor, RIKEN, Kobe, Japan; and G. Y. Lien, S. Satoh, and T. Miyoshi

A Global Radial Wind Data Assimilation OSSE with the GFS
Donald E. Lippi, IMSG; NOAA/NCEP/EMC; University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and J. R. Carley and D. T. Kleist

Evolution of Single- and Dual-Polarization Radar Signatures Associated with Qlcs Mesovortices
Olivia F. McCauley, NWC REU Program, Norman, OK; and C. M. Kuster, V. N. Mahale, and T. Shuur

Operational Utility of the Depth and Width of Three-Body Scatter Spikes
Keith D. Sherburn, NOAA/NWS, Rapid City, SD; and J. Chamberlain

Inferring Severe Convective Wind Gust Probabilities in Florida from NEXRAD Storm Structure Data
Madeline R. Frank, Climate Forecast Applications Network, Atlanta, GA; and J. Miller and V. Toma

All-Sky Radiance Assimilation for COAMPS-TC Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Prediction
Qingyun Zhao, NRL, Monterey, CA; and N. Baker, Y. Jin, J. Doyle, R. G. Nystrom, Y. Zhang, X. Chen, C. Hartman, and F. Zhang

Assimilation of Cygnss Wind Speed for Tropical Convection during 2018 MJO Onset
X. Li, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and T. J. Lang and J. R. Mecikalski

Understanding of Convection Genesis by Urban Meteorological Model Based on Large Eddy Simulation
Kosei Yamaguchi, Kyoto Univ., Uji, Kyoto, Japan; and T. Tsuchihashi, D. Konishi, and E. Nakakita

Modeling Convection with a 'Scale-Aware' Tiedtke Cumulus Parameterization Scheme at Kilometer Scales
Wei Wang, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Results of Varying Vertical Grid Resolution and Microphysics in 3-km FV3 Standalone Regional Runs
Eric Aligo, EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA and I.M. Systems Group, Inc., College Park, MD; and E. Strobach, Y. Lin, L. C. Dawson, J. R. Carley, and J. S. Kain

Evaluation of Multiple Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes in Southeast U.S. Cold Season Severe Thunderstorm Environments
Ariel E. Cohen, NWS, Miami, FL; and S. M. Cavallo, M. C. Coniglio, H. E. Brooks, I. L. Jirak, and A. E. Gerard

Test of a Prognostic Cloud Cover in the FV3GFS
Ruiyu Sun, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and IMSG, College Park, MD; and J. S. Kain and J. Han

Diurnal Cycles of Mei-yu Rainfall Simulated over Eastern China: Sentivity to cumulus convective parameterization
Xi Lu, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China

Automated Data Analysis of Near real-time GNSS-PWV Determination using Kalman Filter: The Central of Thailand.
Amnat Sompan, Hydro Informatics Institute, Bangkok Thailand, Bangkok, Thailand; Hydro Informatics Institute, Bangkok Thailand, Bangkok, Thailand; and P. Chitsutti, P. Jindasee, and S. Weesakul

Terrestrial Cloud Fraction derived from GOES-R Satellite
Prasamsa Singh, Pelmorex/The Weather Network, Oakville, ON, Canada; and C. Scott and I. Russell

Characterization of the Atmospheric Conditions and Cloudiness Leading to Extreme Rainfall Events over the Northern South America Andean Region: An Approach Using High Resolution data from GOES-ABI and ERA-5
Carlos Andrés Bonilla, Sistema de Alerta Temprana del Valle de Aburrá (SIATA), Medellín, Colombia; Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Medellín., Medellín, Colombia; and C. D. Hoyos

Possible Sting Jet Development in Hurricanes Michael and Leslie (2018) Post Extratropical Transition
Deirdre Dolan, NOAA, College Park, MD; and M. J. Folmer, J. M. Sienkiewicz, and H. Fort

Declarative Surface Station Plots: The Next Stop on the GEMPAK Replacement Roadmap for MetPy
Maxwell Grover, UCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. M. May and Z. Bruick

The Python-based MPMC Test Suite for NOAA Operational Data Assimilation Systems (GSI/EnKF)
G. Ge, CIRES and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and M. Hu, C. Zhou, and D. Stark

A Python-Based Quantitative Precipitation Estimate Over Alaska Using Rain Gauge Kriging and the HRRR-AK Precipitation Forecast
Brett T. Hoover, CIMSS, Madison, WI; and J. A. Otkin, E. Petrescu, and E. Niebuhr

Decision Calendar for West Coast Water Management: Connecting Science and Interrelated Decisions for Water Supply, Flooding, Fisheries and Coastal Management
Andrea Ray, NOAA/Earth System Research Lab, Boulder, CO; and L. E. Johnson

Thursday, 16 January 2020

Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

8:30 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


Panel Discussion 1
Historical Perspectives on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (Centennial Session)
Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Moderators: Martin A. Baxter, Central Michigan University; Andrew C. Winters, University of Colorado Boulder
Panelists: Harold E. Brooks, University of Oklahoma; Kristine C. Harper, Florida State Univ.; Jonathan E. Martin, University of Wisconsin–Madison; Stan Benjamin, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory; Pamela Heinselman, NSSL

Session 11A
Integrative analysis of East-Asia Monsoon Frontal System through observational and modeling efforts
Location: 258C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Cochairs: Brandt D. Maxwell, NOAA/NWS; Chunguang CUI, Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA,Wuhan; Xiquan Dong, University of Arizona
8:30 AM
12A.1
Investigation of Mei-yu Frontal Systems through the Integrative Analysis of Ground-based, Aircraft and Satellite Observaions
Chunguang CUI, Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA,Wuhan, Wuhan, China; and X. Dong

8:45 AM
12A.2
Characteristics of Meiyu Season Mesoscale Convective Systems over Central Eastern China
Wenjun Cui, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and B. Xi and X. Dong

9:00 AM
12A.3
Elucidating the Mesoscale Convective Clouds in East Asia Using Both Geostationary Satellite and Weather Radar Measurements
Jianping GUO, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and D. CHEN

9:15 AM
12A.4
Effect of Choice of Model Microphysics Scheme on Heavy Meiyu Rainfall Simulation
Zhimin Zhou, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan City, China


Session 11B
Numerical Modeling for Recent Field Campaigns and Testbeds
Location: 258B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Chair: Aaron J. Hill, Colorado State University
8:30 AM
12B.1
Biases in Warm-Season WRF Forecasts: North America vs. Subtropical South America
Jeremiah Otero Piersante, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher and K. L. Rasmussen

8:45 AM
12B.2
Using Doppler-Lidar Measurements of Recurrent Diurnal Marine Air Intrusion Flows into the Columbia-River Basin to Characterize and Quantify HRRR Errors
Robert M. Banta, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and Y. Pichugina, W. A. Brewer, A. Choukulkar, K. Lantz, J. B. Olson, J. S. Kenyon, H. J. S. Fernando, M. T. Stoelinga, J. Sharp, L. S. Darby, D. D. Turner, and S. Baidar

9:00 AM
12B.3
Fog Prediction by COAMPS During C-FOG Field Experiment
Sasa Gabersek, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA; and D. D. Flagg, J. D. Doyle, I. Gultepe, H. J. S. Fernando, E. Pardyjak, C. E. Dorman, Q. Wang, S. Hoch, T. Bullock, and R. Y. W. Chang

9:15 AM
12B.4
Quantifying Microphysical Parameterization Uncertainty in Convection-Permitting Forecasts of the 10–12 December 2013 Lake-Effect Snow Event
W. Massey Bartolini, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. R. Minder


Joint Session 54
High-performance Computing for Numerical Weather Prediction - II
Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP); and the Sixth Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate )
Cochairs: Ryan A. Lagerquist, CIMMS; Kandis Boyd, OAR; Timothy S. Sliwinski, Texas Tech Univ.
8:30 AM
J54.1
Accelerating the Cloud Scheme Within the Unified Model for CPU-GPU Based High-Performance Computing Systems
Wei Zhang, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and M. Xu, M. Morales Hernandez, M. R. Norman, S. Mahajan, K. J. Evans, A. Hill, and B. Shipway

8:45 AM
J54.2
SAR FV3 Based Storm-Scale Ensemble Implementation and Testing for the 2019 HWT and FFaIR Experiments
Timothy A. Supinie, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. Zhang, M. Xue, K. Brewster, K. W. Thomas, and F. Kong

9:00 AM
J54.3
Mpi Re-Decomposition and Remapping Algorithms Used within a Multigrid Approach to Modeling of the Background Error Covariance for High-Resolution Data Assimilation
Miodrag Rancic, IMSG, College Park, MD; and M. Pondeca, R. J. Purser, and J. R. Carley

9:15 AM
J54.4
High-resolution Numerical Weather Simulation with a Large Domain for West Japan Extreme Heavy Rainfall Events July 2018
Tsutao OIZUMI, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, kanagawa, Japan; MRI, Ibaraki, Japan; and K. Saito, L. Duc, and J. Ito

9:30 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


Exhibit Hall Breakfast

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


Session 12A
Advanced Physics and Physics Interoperability in Community Models
Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Cochairs: Jessie C. Carman, OAR; James D. Doyle, NRL
10:30 AM
13A.1
WGNE Systematic Error Survey Results Summary
Carolyn Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and K. D. Williams and A. Zadra

10:45 AM
13A.2
Scream : A New Performance-Portable Global Storm-Resolving Atmosphere Model
Aaron S. Donahue, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and P. Caldwell

11:00 AM
13A.3
Physics Interoperability as a Strategy for Advancing NOAA’s Unified Forecast System Physics Suites
Ligia Bernardet, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, NOAA/GSD and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and G. J. Firl, D. Heinzeller, L. Carson, M. Zhang, J. Schramm, and L. Nance

11:15 AM
13A.4
Convectively Coupled Equatorial Wave Simulations using the ECMWF IFS and the NOAA GFS Cumulus Convection Schemes in the NOAA GFS Model
Lisa K Bengtsson, CIRES, Boulder, CO; NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. Dias, M. Gehne, P. Bechtold, J. S. Whitaker, L. Magnusson, J. W. Bao, S. A. Michelson, P. Pegion, S. N. Tulich, and G. N. Kiladis

11:30 AM
13A.5
Process-oriented Diagnostics to Inform the Physics Suite of Future GFS Implementations using NOAA's Unified Forecast System
Weiwei Li, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Bernardet, M. Zhang, L. Pan, M. Harrold, J. Wolff, J. K. Henderson, T. Hertneky, L. R. Blank, G. J. Firl, M. ek, J. Dudhia, T. Jensen, Z. Wang, and L. Nance

11:45 AM
13A.6
Evaluation of New Monin-Obukhov and Bulk Richardson Parameterizations of the Surface Layer in Large Eddy Simulations
Michael S. Buban, NOAA/ARL/ATDD and CIMMS, Oak Ridge, TN; and T. R. Lee


Session 12B
Advances in Probabilistic Forecasting
Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Chair: Christopher McCray, McGill Univ.
10:30 AM
13B.1
The Weather Prediction Center: A Bridge Between Ensemble Information and Decision Makers.
David Novak, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD

10:45 AM
13B.2
Evaluation of a Probabilistic Subfreezing Road Temperature Nowcast Using Machine Learning
Shawn Handler, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and H. D. Reeves

11:00 AM
13B.3
Utilizing the High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) to Produce Calibrated Probabilistic Thunderstorm Guidance at the Storm Prediction Center
David Harrison, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, and NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak

11:15 AM
13B.4
Optimizing a Sensitivity-based Ensemble Subsetting Technique for Convective-scale Forecasts
Austin A Coleman, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and B. C. Ancell

11:30 AM
13B.5
The MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) for Nordic Weather Conditions: Recent Results in Research and Applications
Jørn Kristiansen, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway; and U. Andrae, I. L. Frogner, M. Ø. Køltzow, A. M. Olsen, M. Partio, I. A. Seierstad, A. T. Singleton, and O. Vignes

11:45 AM
13B.6
Spread-Skill Relationship in the Canadian Regional Ensemble Prediction System
Leo Separovic, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada; and A. Zadra, R. McTaggart-Cowan, M. Charron, D. Xingxiu, A. Patoine, and S. Corvec


Session 12C
Analysis and Forecasting for Recent Field Campaigns and Testbeds
Location: 258B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Chair: Christopher J. Melick, 557th Weather Wing
10:30 AM
13C.1
The Influence of Dacciwa Radiosonde Data on the Quality of ECMWF Analyses and Forecasts
Roderick van der Linden, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and P. Knippertz, A. H. Fink, B. Ingleby, M. Maranan, and A. Benedetti

10:45 AM
13C.2
High-Frequency Mobile Soundings in Convective Environments During RELAMPAGO: Overview and Preliminary Findings
Russ S. Schumacher, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and D. A. Hence, N. R. Kelly, K. A. Kosiba, S. W. Nesbitt, R. J. Trapp, and J. Wurman

11:00 AM
13C.3
Evaluation of Multiple Analysis Systems in the 2019 HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment
Israel L. Jirak, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK; and N. A. Dahl, K. Hoogewind, B. Roberts, K. H. Knopfmeier, A. J. Clark, C. Alexander, J. R. Carley, and M. C. Coniglio

11:15 AM
13C.4
Application of Ensemble Sensitivity during the AR-Recon 2019 Experiment
Ryan D. Torn, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY

11:30 AM
13C.5
Impact of Turbulence and Small-Scale Convective Cells on Heavy Orographic Precipitation During the OLYMPEX Field Experiment
Na Zhou, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle and A. Naeger

11:45 AM
13C.6
A Review of NCAR/MMM's Forecasting Support for Recent Atmospheric Chemistry Field Campaigns
James F Bresch, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Honomichl


Joint Session 58
Python Tools for Weather Analysis and Forecasting
Location: 258C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP); the 10th Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; and the 36th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies )
Cochairs: Benjamin C. Trabing, Colorado State Univ.; Maxwell Grover, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
10:30 AM
J58.1
Evaluation of an Open-Source Radar-Based Nowcasting Tool in a Tropical Environment
Mariana O. Scott, i3, Huntsville, AL

10:45 AM
J58.2
Visualizations to Facilitate Regression for CAMPS
Alison L. Reynolds, College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, VA; and E. Schlie, D. E. Rudack, S. R. Olson, and E. Engle

11:00 AM
J58.3
Leveraging Predictions from Noaa's Oceanographic Forecast Models to Increase Environmental Variability Awareness in Ocean Mapping
Giuseppe Masetti, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH; and L. A. Mayer, P. D. Johnson, and J. G. W. Kelley

11:15 AM
J58.4
Distributed Workflow for WRF Processes and Visualization using WRF-Python and Dask
Robert C Fritzen, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL; and V. A. Gensini, S. Collis, and R. Jackson

11:30 AM
J58.5
Bringing WRF into MetPy (and the Rest of the Atmospheric Sciences Python Ecosystem)
Jonathan E. Thielen, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and R. M. May

11:45 AM
J58.6
Reproducible Forecast Evaluation with the Solar Forecast Arbiter
Antonio T. Lorenzo, The Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and W. F. Holmgren, C. W. Hansen, A. Tuohy, J. Sharp, L. J. Boeman, A. Wigington, D. Larson, Q. Wang, and A. Golnas


Joint Session 60
Machine Learning for Subgrid Parameterization in Weather and Climate Models
Hosts: (Joint between the 19th Conference on Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Science; and the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) )
Cochairs: Ryan A. Lagerquist, CIMMS; Christiane Jablonowski, University of Michigan; Carlos F. Gaitan, Arable Labs, Inc.
10:30 AM
J60.1
Building a Hierarchy of Hybrid, Neural-network Parametrizations of Convection
Tom Beucler, UCI, Irvine, CA; Columbia University, New York, CA; and P. Gentine, M. S. Pritchard, S. Rasp, and V. Eyring

10:45 AM
J60.2
Data-driven super-parameterization using deep learning: Experimentations with a multi-scale Lorenz 96 model
Pedram Hassanzadeh, Rice University, 6100 Main St., Houston, TX; and A. Chattopadhyay, A. Subel, and K. Palem

11:00 AM
J60.3
Machine Learning Parameterization of the Surface Layer: Integration with WRF
David John Gagne II, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. C. McCandless, B. Kosovic, A. DeCastro, R. D. Loft, S. E. Haupt, and B. Yang

11:15 AM
J60.4
Data-driven approaches for simulating rainfall in climate models
R. Saravanan, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and J. Yang, M. Jun, C. Schumacher, J. Wang, and R. K. W. Wang

11:30 AM
J60.5
Towards sub-grid scale parameterizations using a super-resolution generative adversarial network
Eden Au, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; and K. Kashinath, A. Albert, M. Prabhat, and S. F. B. Tett

11:45 AM
J60.6
Utilizing Machine Learning to Replace Physical Parameterization Schemes: How do Different Techniques Compare?
Garrett Limon, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and C. Jablonowski

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


Lunch Break (Thursday)

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


Session 13A
Advances in Satellite Usage for Weather Analysis and Forecasting
Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Chair: S. W. Bieda III, NWSFO
1:30 PM
14A.1
Using CloudSat Cloud Top Height Observations to Verify Himawari-8 Infrared Height Assessment
Lance E. Steele, Weathernews America, Inc., Norman, OK

1:45 PM
14A.2
Process-Based Cloud Cover Verification for Improved Understanding of Physical and Statistical Forecasts
Jason Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and D. Sidoti, K. Pattipatti, A. Bienkowski, J. Kaminski, R. L. Bankert, Y. Jin, and M. Surratt

2:00 PM
14A.3
Simultaneous Assimilation of Radar and All-Sky Satellite Infrared Radiance Observations for Convection-Allowing Ensemble Analysis and Prediction of Severe Thunderstorms
Yunji Zhang, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and D. J. Stensrud and F. Zhang

2:15 PM
14A.4
Identifying Fields of Cumulus in Satellite and HRRR Output to Improve Model Physics
Stephen L Solimine, SUNY - Albany, Albany, NY; and D. D. Turner

2:30 PM
14A.5
Impact of GOES-16 Clear-Sky Radiance Data Assimilation in JMA’s Global NWP System
Izumi Okabe, JMA, Tokyo, Japan

2:45 PM
14A.6
Towards the Development of Real-Time Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) and delta NBR Imagery from GOES-16/17 and the Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP)
K. D. White, NWS, Huntsville, AL; NASA, Huntsville, AL; and E. Berndt and R. L. Fontenot


Session 13B
Advances in Unified Modeling Frameworks (From Nowcasting to Climate)
Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Chair: May Wong, NCAR
1:30 PM
14B.1
Unified Forecast System (UFS)
Hendrik L. Tolman, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD; and D. M. Koch, R. Rood, K. Keith, W. Pryor, F. Adimi, and S. Morris

1:45 PM
14B.2
The Unified Forecast System (UFS): A Framework for Prediction Shared by Research and Operations
Richard B. Rood, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and H. L. Tolman, C. DeLuca, M. Vertenstein, A. Chawla, and A. Mehra

2:00 PM
14B.3
Coordinating the Giant: The Earth Prediction Innovation Center (EPIC)
Bill Lapenta, NOAA/OAR/Office of Weather and Air Quality, Silver Spring, MD; and D. L. Carlis
Manuscript (36.8 kB)

2:15 PM
14B.4
38 - years of Global and Regional Reforecast and Surface Reanalysis produced by CMC-ECCC
Nedka Pentcheva, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada; and N. Gasset, M. Bulat, X. Wang, and R. Pavlovic

2:30 PM
14B.5
Numerical Weather Prediction at The Weather Company: Overview of a Global Rapidly-Updating Forecast System
Todd Hutchinson, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, Andover, MA; and W. M. Sheridan, B. A. Wilt, K. Dixon, J. Wong, J. P. Cipriani, and B. Skamarock

2:45 PM
14B.6
Advances Toward an Operational Convection-Allowing Ensemble Prediction System in the Unified Forecast System at NOAA
J. R. Carley, NOAA, College Park, MD; and B. T. Blake, T. L. Black, E. Rogers, E. Aligo, J. Abeles, L. C. Dawson, T. Lei, Y. Lin, M. E. Pyle, P. Shafran, E. Strobach, X. Zhang, J. S. Kain, C. R. Alexander, L. J. Wicker, L. M. Harris, and J. K. Wolff


Session 13C
Analysis and Forecasting of Tropical Weather
Location: 258C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Cochairs: Clark Evans, Univ. of Wisconsin–Milwaukee; Benjamin C. Trabing, Colorado State Univ.
1:30 PM
14C.1
Recent Progress in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting at the National Hurricane Center
John P. Cangialosi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL; and E. S. Blake, D. A. Zelinsky, M. DeMaria, and E. Rappaport

1:45 PM
14C.2
The Predictability of Formation, Intensity, and Rainfall for Hurricane Barry
Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and A. M. Bentley and L. C. Dawson

2:00 PM
14C.3
Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change During Trough Interaction
Kristen L. Corbosiero, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. Peirano and B. H. Tang

2:15 PM
14C.4
A Climatology of Indirect Tropical Cyclone Interactions
Kevin C. Prince, UW-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and C. Evans

2:30 PM
14C.5
Mechanisms Contributing to the Heavy Rainfall Associated with a Meiyu Front near Taiwan
Jennifer C. DeHart, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. M. Bell

2:45 PM
14C.6
High-Resolution Reanalysis for Hurricanes Surface Forcing
Hao Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle


Session 13D
Probabilistic Precipitation Forecast Techniques and Applications
Location: 258B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Cochairs: Christopher McCray, McGill Univ.; Jeff S. Waldstreicher, NOAA/NWS
1:30 PM
14D.1
Statistical Forecasts for the Occurrence of Precipitation Outperform Global Models over Northern Tropical Africa
Peter Knippertz, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and P. Vogel, T. Gneiting, A. H. Fink, and A. Schlueter

1:45 PM
14D.2
2016-2019 Verification of the National Weather Service Probabilistic Snowfall Program
Philip N. Schumacher, NWS, Sioux Falls, SD; and D. B. Radell

2:00 PM
14D.3
Linking Ensemble Data to Users: AccuWeather’s Snowfall Probability Tool Provides Unique Insight of Forecast Confidence
Daniel DePodwin, AccuWeather, State College, PA; and M. Moss and J. Porter

2:15 PM
14D.4
Applications of the Geometry-Sensitive Ensemble Mean for Lake-Effect Snowbands and Other Weather Phenomena
Jonathan J. Seibert, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and S. J. Greybush, J. Li, Z. Zhang, and F. Zhang

2:30 PM
14D.5
Heavy Rainfall Forecasts from Two Very Different Ensembles
Trevor Alcott, ESRL, Boulder, CO; and E. A. Kalina, I. Jankov, and D. C. Dowell

2:45 PM
14D.6
Process-Based Evaluation of Stochastic Perturbed Parameterization Tendencies on Convective-Permitting Ensemble Forecasts of the 1–2 June 2017 Taiwan Heavy Rainfall Event
Kevin Lupo, SUNY / University at Albany, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn and S. C. Yang

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


PM Coffee Break (Thursday)

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 16 January 2020


Session 14A
Evaluating Numerical Weather Forecasts in the Tropics
Location: 258C (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Cochairs: Joseph P. Koval, The Weather Company; Maria Gehne, ESRL
3:30 PM
15A.1
Can Limited Area Mesoscale Models Forecast Tropical Cyclones?
Poushali Ghosh, Millersville University of Pennsylvania, Millersville, PA; and M. Fiorino and R. A. Anthes

3:45 PM
15A.2
Tropical Dynamics Diagnostics for NWP
Maria Gehne, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, NOAA ESRL PSD, Boulder, CO; and J. Dias and G. Kiladis

4:00 PM
15A.3
An Investigation of North Atlantic TC Ensemble Forecasts with Large Cross-Track Errors.
Nicholas Michael Leonardo, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY

4:15 PM
15A.4
Performance of the Global Forecast System (GFS) in the Northern South America Region and its Impact on the Overall Skill of an Operational Regional Weather Forecast Strategy Using WRF
Gisel Guzmán, Sistema de Alerta Temprana del Valle de Aburrá (SIATA), Medellín, Colombia; Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Medellín, Medellín, Colombia; and C. D. Hoyos Ortíz, D. C. Cruz, L. A. Gómez, and M. Zapata

4:30 PM
15A.5
Evaluating TIGGE rainfall forecasts for tropical eastern Africa
Emily Riddle, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Stellingwerf, T. M. Hopson, J. Knievel, B. Brown, and M. Gebremichael

4:45 PM
15A.6
Skill of Global Raw and Postprocessed Ensemble Predictions of Rainfall in the Tropics
Peter Knippertz, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and P. Vogel, A. H. Fink, A. Schlueter, and T. Gneiting


Session 14B
Numerical and Observational Studies: Microscale and Mesoscale Processes over Complex Terrain
Location: 258B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Cochairs: Bruce Telfeyan, 557 Weather Wing; Heather A. Holmes, University of Nevada, Reno; Holly J. Oldroyd, Univ. of California, Davis
3:30 PM
15B.1
Extreme Events Across New Mexico During the 2018 North American Monsoon
Daniel Pagliaro, Pagcore Solutions LLC, Albuquerque, NM; and J. Torres

3:45 PM
15B.2
Initializing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model in Complex Coastal Regions
Eric Allen, Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE; and D. E. Veron

4:00 PM
15B.3
Influences of Orography on Banded and Cellular Lake- and Sea- Effect Systems in Idealized Simulations
Thomas M. Gowan, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh

4:15 PM
15B.4
Improving the Maintenance of Simulated Mountain-Valley Cold Pools within Complex Terrain By Better Representation of Cloud-Radiative Interactions and Turbulent Mixing
Joseph B. Olson, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. Kenyon, J. Brown, W. M. Angevine, M. D. Toy, Y. Pichugina, L. Bianco, I. V. Djalalova, and K. Lantz

4:30 PM
15B.5
Influence of Terrain and Environment on Cold Pools During RELAMPAGO
Holly M. Mallinson, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and R. J. Trapp

4:45 PM
15B.6
Including Advection in Boundary Condition Models of Momentum and Heat for Heterogeneous Stratified Boundary Layers
Jeremy A. Gibbs, NOAA/OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK; University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and R. Stoll, G. Q. Torkelson, and T. Harman


Session 14C
Seasonal to Subseasonal Numerical Weather Prediction
Location: 257AB (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Host: 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Chair: Kandis Boyd, NOAA
3:30 PM
15C.1
Calibrated Probabilistic Seasonal Forecasts at IBM/The Weather Company: Business Applications
Todd Crawford, IBM, ANDOVER, MA; and J. Belanger, M. J. Ventrice, and J. K. Williams

3:45 PM
15C.2
A New Technique for sub-Daily Week 3 Forecast Updates using the ECMWF Monthly Model
Michael J Ventrice, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, Andover, MA

4:00 PM
15C.3
A Priori Identification of Skillful Extratropical Subseasonal Forecasts
John R. Albers, NOAA, Boulder, CO; CIRES - CU Boulder, Boulder, CO; and M. Newman

4:15 PM
15C.4
Early Season Weak Stratospheric Vortex Events in S2S Forecasts: Hits, Misses, and False Alarms
Andrea L. Lang, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY

4:30 PM
15C.5
Subseasonal Experiment (SubX): Do the Research-Center Models Improve the Skill of the Operational-Center Models for Multimodel-Mean Forecasting of Weeks 3 and 4?
Emerson Nicole LaJoie, CPC, College Park, MD

4:45 PM
15C.6
Simulating Extreme Precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula Using a Convective-Permitting Sub-Seasonal Reforecast Product
C. Bayu Risanto, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and C. L. Castro, H. I. Chang, I. Hoteit, and T. M. Luong


Joint Session 64
Automated Guidance for Atmospheric Rivers, Flash Floods, and Other Hydrometeorological Extremes
Location: 258A (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF)/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP); and the 34th Conference on Hydrology )
Chair: Brandt D. Maxwell, NOAA/NWS
3:30 PM
J64.1
The U.S. West Coast Network of Atmospheric River Observatories: Tools for Improving Situational Awareness in Operational Forecasting
Allen B. White, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and D. J. Gottas, L. S. Darby, T. E. Ayers, and J. L. Leach

3:45 PM
J64.2
Heavy Precipitation and Flash Flood Forecasts Using Random Forests and Convection-Allowing Models
Aaron J. Hill, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

4:00 PM
J64.3
If a Flood Falls in a (Random) Forest, Does It Get Counted? Advances and Challenges in Predicting Excessive Precipitation Using Machine Learning
Russ S. Schumacher, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and A. J. Hill, G. R. Herman, M. Erickson, B. Albright, M. Klein, and J. A. Nelson Jr.

4:15 PM
J64.4
Using a Random Forest Model to Assess Flash Flood Probability across Southern Utah
Michael P. Seaman, NOAA, Salt Lake City, UT; and D. Van Cleave and N. J. Carr

4:30 PM
J64.5
Sensitivity Analysis of Rainfall and Streamflow Thresholds for Forecasting Flash Floods
Humberto Vergara, CIMMS, Norman, OK; and J. J. Gourley and A. Vergara

4:45 PM
J64.6
An Improved Extreme Forecast Index for Temperature and Precipitation
Pedro Odon, MineSense Technologies Ltd., Vancouver, BC, Canada; and G. West and R. Stull

« Collapse View