The Current Development Status of the Next Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System (JMA/MRI-CPS3). Part II

Following the last Annual Meeting, the current development status of next seasonal ensemble prediction system (JMA/MRI-CPS3: Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 3) will be presented in this talk. As a new version of the JMA/MRI-CPS2, currently operated for the purpose of three-month, warm/cold season, and El Niño predictions, JMA/MRI-CPS3 is now under development aiming for further improvement of the prediction skills.

JMA/MRI-CPS3 will employ higher resolution atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea-ice models, compared with current operational JMA/MRI-CPS2. In addition, some improvements will be made to the atmospheric physical process, especially to the cumulus convective and the stratocumulus parameterization, aiming to better reproduce the climatological distribution of precipitation and radiative fluxes, and the seasonal variability of atmosphere and ocean. We will show preliminary results including biases and the impact of the improved parameterization schemes.