Session: 30 WAF/26 NWP Tuesday Poster Session (100th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting)

642

Verification of Convection-Allowing Initial Condition Ensemble Modeling Systems with WRF-ARW

Russell P. Manser, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and B. C. Ancell

643

Designing a Process for Selecting, Vetting, and Implementing Physics Innovations in a Community Modeling Paradigm

John S. Kain, NOAA, College Park, MD; and L. R. Bernardet, V. Tallapragada, F. Yang, G. Manikin, R. Vasic, J. Doyle, C. Bretherton, G. Grell, J. Olson, S. Moorthi, A. Cheng, J. Dudhia, L. K. Bengtsson, J. W. Bao, and M. Harrold

644

Toward Consistent Physical Constant Sets for Interoperable Earth System Models

Sue Chen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Montuoro, L. Marx, S. Goldhaber, N. P. Barton, T. J. Campbell, C. DeLuca, B. Li, D. McCarren, J. Meixner, M. Vertenstein, N. Zadeh, J. Infanti, B. R. Brown, R. Dunlap, and G. Theurich

645

Verification of the Physics Suite Testing for GFS v16 Using the Model Evaluation Tools

Michelle Harrold, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Wolff, M. Zhang, T. Hertneky, L. Bernardet, J. K. Henderson, L. R. Blank, W. Li, L. Pan, G. Firl, and T. Jensen

646

An Evaluation of Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) Physics Suites across Scales

Kathryn M. Newman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. J. Hertneky, E. A. Kalina, M. Harrold, L. Pan, G. Firl, E. D. Grell, L. Carson, and M. Ek

647

One-Stop Shopping for Physics across Scales: From a Single-Column Model to Three-Dimensional Configurations for Weather and S2S

Linlin Pan, NOAA/GSD, Univ. of Colorado/CIRES, and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; NOAA, Boulder, CO; and L. Bernardet, D. Heinzeller, E. Kalina, G. Firl, E. Grell, K. Newman, L. Carson, and G. Grell

648

Coupling FLAKE with GFSv15

Yihua Wu, NCEP, College Park, MD; and J. Wang, J. S. Kain, and V. Tallapragada

649

The Effect of Moist Physics and Resolution on Baroclinic Wave Evolution in an Idealized Simulation

650

Weather Forecasting with a Nonhydrostatic Global Atmospheric Prediction System on a Cubed-Sphere Grid

SongYou Hong, KIAPS, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South)

651

Challenges in Improving the Representation of Mesoscale Kinetic Energy in NWP Models

Jih-Wang Aaron Wang, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh

652

Evaluation of the Performance of the WRF Model over the United Arab Emirates

Ricardo Morais Fonseca, Khalifa Univ. of Science and Technology, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; and M. Temimi, M. Weston, N. R. Nelli, M. S. Thota, and V. Valappil

Handout (2.3 MB)

654

Toward an Optimal Configuration of Dynamics and Physics for GEFS v12

Bing Fu, NCEP, College Park, MD; IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and X. Zhou, Y. Zhu, J. Peng, and D. Hou

655

Grid Refinement in a Global Spectral Element Model

Alex Reinecke, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Martini, J. Michalakes, J. D. Doyle, D. D. Flagg, A. Huang, and D. R. Ryglicki

653

Sensitivity of Summer Convective Precipitation to Dynamical Core Configurations in the GEM Model

656

NWP Prediction at ESRL/GSD: Overview of Global Modeling Development Activities

Georg A. Grell, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and H. C. Barnes, S. Sun, L. Bernardet, R. Montuoro, H. Li, B. W. Green, T. G. Smirnova, L. Zhang, J. Olson, R. Ahmadov, and R. Bleck

657

Full Velocity Field Reconstruction on Icosahedral Grids for Shallow-Water Models

Yonggang G. Yu, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and N. Wang, Y. Xie, and M. W. Govett

658

Development and Performance of the GFDL Global Prediction System—SHiELD

Linjiong Zhou, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ; and S. J. Lin, L. Harris, K. Gao, B. Xiang, M. A. Bender, and J. H. Chen

659

Evaluating and Tuning Orographic Gravity Wave Drag Parameterizations in Atmospheric NWP Models

Michael D. Toy, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. B. Olson, T. G. Smirnova, J. S. Kenyon, J. M. Brown, and G. A. Grell

660

Implementation of CLUBB in COAMPS

Yi Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Wang

661

A Comparison of Multi- versus Single-Dynamic Core Multiphysics Ensemble Designs for Convection-Allowing Forecasting Initialized by the Multiscale EnVar Data Assimilation System

X. Wang, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and N. A. Gasperoni

Handout (9.9 MB)

662

Classification of Weather Patterns over the East Asia Region Using Clustering Analysis

Young-Jun Cho, NIMS, KMA, Seogwipo-si, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. C. Lee, B. Lim, and S. B. Kim

Handout (2.4 MB)

Development of an Online Ozone and UV Index Prediction System

663

Classification of Heat Wave Weather Patterns for Probabilistic Ensemble Medium-Range Forecasts in South Korea

Hyeon-Cheol Lee, NIMS, KMA, Seogwipo-si, Korea, Republic of (South)

664

Using a Coupled FV3GFS–FVCOM Modeling System to Improve Lake-Effect Snowfall Forecasts

David M. Wright, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and C. Jablonowski, A. Fujisaki-Manome, P. Y. Chu, E. J. Anderson, G. E. Mann, and B. M. Lofgren

Handout (4.2 MB)

665

Unified Forecast System: Considerations for Transition to Operations

Ivanka Stajner, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and T. Jensen, G. Manikin, J. J. Levit, V. Tallapragada, F. Yang, and R. Treadon

666

Implementation of Radar Data Assimilation Capabilities within Ensemble–Variational Hybrid GSI for the Stand-Alone Regional FV3-Based Convection-Allowing Forecasting System

Chong-Chi Tong, CAPS, Norman, OK; and Y. Jung, C. Liu, and M. Xue

667

A Climatology of Snow-to-Liquid Ratios in Alaska

David E. Levin, NOAA/NWS, Juneau, AK

668

The Case of Cold-Air Damming in Response to Topographical Influence Created by the Ozark Plateau

Jon Bongard, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market and J. Hunter

669

A Comparison of Boundary Layer Parameterizations and Sensitivity to Vertical Resolution with the 3-km FV3 Stand-Alone Regional Model for a Lake-Effect Snow Event

Edward Strobach, IMSG and NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and E. Aligo and J. R. Carley

670

WRF Simulation, PBL Sensitivity, and Analysis of the December 2013 New England Ice Storm

Julia M. Simonson, Univ. of Maine, Orono, ME; and S. D. Birkel, K. A. Maasch, P. A. Mayewski, B. Lyon, and A. M. Carleton

Handout (1.9 MB)

671

The 30 January 2019 Northeast U.S. Snow Squall Event: An Operational Perspective

Jonathan O'Brien, NWS Mount Holly, New Jersey, Westampton, NJ

672

Traffic Fatalities in Winter: An Evaluation of Weather Regimes and NWS Guidance during Killer Storms

Joseph Burzdak, Western Connecticut State Univeristy, Danbury, CT; and A. A. Rosenow, H. D. Reeves, and S. L. Handler

673

An Overview on the 13 March 2019 Explosive Cyclogenesis Event over Southern Colorado and the Impact-Based Decision Support Service Provided by the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Pueblo, Colorado

Klint T. Skelly, NWS, Pueblo, CO; and G. Heavener

674

Analyzing Winter Weather and Climate Trends of the Ski Resorts in North Carolina through the Use of Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) Stations

Danika Leigh Mosher, East Tennessee State Univ., Jonesborough, TN; and T. A. Joyner and I. E. Luffman

675

Environmental Controls on Banded versus Cellular Organization of Mesoscale Snow Squalls in Western South Dakota

Leanna Bender, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and A. J. French

Manuscript (410.7 kB)

Handout (4.8 MB)

676

Winter Storms and Associated Precipitation Causing Power Outages over the Province of New Brunswick, Canada

Julien Chartrand, UQAM, Montréal, Canada; and J. M. Thériault

677

Importance of Physical Parameterization for Snowfall Forecasts: Implications from a Case Study of Heavy Snowfall over the Southern Coast of Japan

Ginga Akimoto, JMA, Tokyo, Japan

678

Assessing the Predictability of WRF Precipitaiton Forecasts for the Bay Area

Paul Zechiel, San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA; and S. Chiao

680

A Climatological Analysis of Snowband Predictability in Northeast Winter Storms Including Case Studies

Mark Nissenbaum, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart

681

Improving the Snow-to-Liquid Ratio and Snowfall Forecasts in the Western United States

Michael Wessler, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Steenburgh

682

Intraseasonal Variability of Cloud Cover in Midlatitudes during Boreal Winter

Reona Satoh, Fukuoka Univ., Fukuoka, Japan; and N. Nishi and H. MUKOUGAWA

679

NOAA’s National Snowfall Analysis: Technical Description and Evaluation

683

Assimilation of GPM-Retrieved Surface Meteorology Variables for Two Winter Storms

X. Li, Univ. of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and J. Srikishen, J. B. Roberts, W. A. Petersen, and C. R. Hain

684

Evaluation of Hourly Snow-to-Liquid Ratio Algorithms for the U.S. Air Force

Christopher J. Melick, 557th Weather Wing, Offutt Air Force Base, NE; and W. T. Sedlacek, S. Augustyn, R. J. Craig, G. Brooks, D. L. Keller, S. Rentschler, E. Kuchera, C. Hoover, J. Foote, and M. A. Baxter

685

Formation and Evolution of the Strong Great Lakes New Year's Eve 2017 Mesovortex

Nathan Marsili, NOAA/NWS, Syracuse, IN

686

The Influence of Turbulence Parameterizations on the 2 March 2018 Snowstorm

Matthew T. Vaughan, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. G. Fovell

Handout (6.9 MB)

687

Characterizing and Constraining Uncertainty Associated with Surface and Boundary Layer Turbulent Fluxes in Simulations of Lake-Effect Snowfall

Justin Minder, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and W. M. Bartolini

688

Exploring the Predictability of Synoptically Induced Cold-Air Damming in the Eastern United States

Thomas Hopson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. C. Knievel and M. Frediani

689

Evaluation of Winter Weather Prediction during Extreme Snowfall Events

Michael Walters, Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT; and J. Yang, M. Koukoula, and M. Astitha

690

1-Month-Lead Predictability of Asian Summer Monsoon Indices Based on the Zonal Winds Using the APCC Multimodel Ensemble

Joong-Bae Ahn, Pusan National Univ., Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. J. Park and V. Kryjov

691

The Current Development Status of the Next Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System (JMA/MRI-CPS3). Part II

Jotaro Chiba, JMA, Tokyo, Japan

692

Subseasonal Bias and Skill in FV3 Simulations Using Two Different Physics Suites

Benjamin W. Green, CIRES, Boulder, CO; NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and S. Sun, G. A. Grell, and S. G. Benjamin

693

Progress on the Development of a Coupled Forecast System for Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction at NCEP/EMC

Bin Li, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and J. Meixner, J. Wang, D. Worthen, L. Stefanova, J. Wang, S. Saha, S. Moorthi, R. Grumbine, A. Chawla, and A. Mehra

694

A Shift Toward Probabilistic Seasonal Forecasts at The Weather Company, an IBM Business

Michael J. Ventrice, The Weather Company, Andover, MA; and J. Belanger, T. Crawford, and J. Williams

Poster 695 is now Paper 14C.4A.

695A

Early Season Weak Stratospheric Vortex Events in S2S Forecasts: Hits, Misses, and False Alarms

Andrea L. Lang, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY

696

Sensitivity of the 2012 Arctic Cyclone to Sea Ice and Atmospheric Initial Conditions

Tomer Burg, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. M. Cavallo

697

Medium-Range Predictability of Historical Extreme Precipitation Events Associated with Mid- to Upper-Tropospheric Flow Reversal