Verification of the Physics Suite Testing for GFS v16 Using the Model Evaluation Tools

In early 2019, NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) selected a path forward toward advancing the physics suite for version 16 of the Global Forecast System (GFS), to be implemented operationally in 2021. As part of the selection process, the Developmental Testbed Center’s (DTC) Global Model Test Bed (GMTB) ran four global weather configurations of NOAA’s Unified Forecast System (UFS). The primary verification for this exercise was completed by EMC; however, additional verification and diagnostics were provided by the GMTB and shared with EMC and the independent evaluation panel to provide further insight into the different configurations’ performance. The supplementary evaluation was produced using the DTC’s Model Evaluation Tools (MET) and included verification of standard meteorological fields, energy budget, and tropical cyclones. In addition, “scorecards” for surface, upper-air, and precipitation variables were generated to provide a straightforward way of identifying patterns in the difference of configurations’ performance, including level of significance for specified metrics, variables, thresholds, regions, and times. This poster presentation will highlight how MET can be applied in model testing and evaluation efforts, from standard verification to more novel approaches. Examples from the physics suite testing for version 16 GFS will include: synthesizing results with scorecards, energy budget verification and diagnostics using Surface Radiation Budget (SURFRAD) Network and Clouds and the Earth Radiant Energy System (CERES) datasets, and verifying tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts.