1220 Development and Evaluation of a Multimodel Global Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Product

Wednesday, 15 January 2020
Hall B (Boston Convention and Exhibition Center)
Alan Brammer, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and A. B. Schumacher and K. D. Musgrave

The tropical cyclone (TC) wind speed probability (WSP) products issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) provide probabilities of exceeding threshold wind speeds at any given location. This product was developed using climatological and statistical relationships and error distributions from the previous 5 years of forecasts.
Given the improvement in ensemble predictions of TCs from multiple ensemble modeling centers, this project has developed a fully dynamical model ensemble-based wind speed probability product to compliment the existing methodologies. This product captures extratropical and asymmetric wind-fields better than the previous statistical model is able to.
The methodology for bias correction and post-processing of the multi-model ensemble forecasts will be discussed along with preliminary results from the realtime demonstration conducted during the 2019 hurricane season.
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner