Development of and Implementation Strategies for the Unified Forecast System at NCEP to Assist with Forecasting Aviation Weather Hazards

NCEP implemented the first version of the Finite Volume Cubed Sphere (FV3) dynamic core-based Global Forecast System (GFS Version 15) into operations in June 2019, replacing the current spectral model-based operational GFS. This heralds a new era of operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) at NCEP and signals the start of the creation of NOAA's Unified Forecast System (UFS), centered on the FV3 dynamic core for weather prediction at all spatial and temporal scales. Along with the global model development, a parallel project has begun to develop a regional FV3-based convection allowing model (FV3CAM) in collaboration with ESRL/GSD, NSSL, GFDL, AOML, and the greater academic community. One more upgrade to the High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) system is scheduled for 2020, with plans to add the HRRR and replace a poorly-performing member with an FV3CAM run. Ultimately, the high-resolution model based guidance currently supported by HREF, the Hi-Res Windows, NAM Nests, and HRRR will eventually be subsumed by a new FV3 CAM-based Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) within the UFS framework that will supply probabilistic forecasts of aviation weather hazards.

UFS development and operational implementation efforts are focused on transitioning multiple global and regional models at NCEP using applications derived from UFS. Advancements in model physics and data assimilation are achieved through the use of Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) and Joint Effort for Data Assimilation Integration (JEDI), respectively.

This talk describes the planned strategy and timelines for developing and implementing the UFS for global and regional applications, with a focus on the RRFS and overall improved probabilistic prediction for weather events that affect aviation interests.